Champ or Chump: Trent Grisham

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of San Diego Padres OF Trent Grisham in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Is he really as good as he has looked so far?

While it seems like the MLB season just started yesterday, the final full week is rapidly approaching. If you're looking for an extra edge for the stretch run, rostering players on teams with a bunch of games to make up could give you a quantity advantage. The Cardinals, Brewers, Rockies, and Nationals are all scheduled to play eight games next week, though balancing the fact that some of those games will only last seven innings makes roster decisions more complicated.

In contrast, the San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins are only slated for five games next week, meaning that only elite players from those teams should be utilized in weekly leagues. Guys like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Nelson Cruz are obvious must-starts, but Trent Grisham is also worthy of that status.

Grisham began his professional career as a hyped prospect, being selected 15th overall in the 2015 First Year Player Draft. His star had since dimmed, however, and he did virtually nothing in his first taste of big-league action despite a sterling MiLB resume. It has all come together in this abbreviated campaign though, even if 2021 will likely be remembered as his breakout season due to this season's bizarre structure. Here is a closer look at one of the more intriguing player profiles in the game today.

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A Stellar 2020

The Padres have been one of the 2020 season's best storylines, and Trent Grisham's .267/.350/.471 triple-slash line with nine long balls and seven steals is a big reason why. Some fantasy managers may be skeptical of his performance because his average exit velocity is only 88.1 mph, but this is a case where looking at the overall number can be deceptive. Grisham's fly balls and line drives are averaging 94 mph off of the bat, placing him in the top third of the league. His grounders aren't as impressive at 84 mph, but Grisham's elite 28.9 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed allows him to reach base on them regardless.

Furthermore, Grisham has had a knack for barrels this season. His 10.9% rate of Brls/BBE ranks 72nd among qualified batters, with names like Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez in the same vicinity. This author has found Brls/BBE to be one of the most reliable predictors of fantasy success, and Grisham offers it. Baseball Savant's expected metrics also suggest that Grisham has been unfortunate this season, with an xBA of .285 against his actual .267 mark. Likewise, Grisham's .522 xSLG is significantly better than his .471 slugging percentage.

Some fantasy baseball players may be skeptical of Grisham's 33.8 FB% and 20.5% HR/FB, numbers that scream negative regression at the top of their lungs. However, Grisham is also running an inflated 26.9 LD%, and it says here that some of those line drives will turn into fly balls moving forward. It won't be a great change for Grisham's .328 BABIP, but the resulting power spike is likely to add to Grisham's overall fantasy value.

Likewise, Grisham has an outstanding eye that his basic plate discipline metrics are masking. Fantasy gamers in OBP formats will appreciate his 10.5 BB%, and standard roto gamers also welcome the walks as an opportunity to swipe a bag. His 25.1 K% is a little harder to swallow, but his 20.4% chase rate and 7.5 SwStr% are both better than league average. Grisham is likely to underperform his plate discipline peripherals to a degree because of his low 38.1 Swing%, but it's hard to not see at least some upside here.

Under-the-Radar Prior Production

Another common criticism of Grisham is that he has only performed well for a short period (219 PAs as of this writing), but he actually has much more history producing like this if you include his minor league numbers. In fact, his MiLB resume includes several trends that suggest the K% and FB% improvements forecasted above. Unfortunately, scouting reports weren't that high on him, and fantasy managers didn't pay much attention as a result. For an idea of what Grisham was fighting against, here are his FanGraphs scouting grades from 2019:

Scouts aren't foolproof, of course, and Grisham's numbers suggest that he is capable of becoming a major league force.

He first reached Double-A as a member of the Brewers organization, slashing .233/.356/.337 for Double-A (Biloxi) over 405 PAs. He hit seven homers and stole 11 bases, foreshadowing the type of production he would offer fantasy managers. Grisham also managed a 15.6 BB% while only striking out 21.5% of the time, suggesting strong plate discipline. His 9 SwStr% was also impressive for a 21-year-old in his first exposure to the High Minors. Grisham did a tremendous job elevating the baseball with a 46.2 FB% as well, though his 6.1 HR/FB prevented him from doing much with it.

Grisham returned to Biloxi to begin the 2019 season, and he clobbered his opponents to the tune of a .254/.371/.504 line with 13 HR and six steals over 283 PAs. His 46.5 FB% was virtually unchanged from his previous season, but a HR/FB spike to 15.1% helped him hit for a lot more power. He also walked at a 15.5% clip with a 17.7 K% and 7.5 SwStr%, suggesting his plate discipline got even better. A .269 BABIP (partially caused by all of the flies) limited his batting average, but the Brewers promoted him to Triple-A (San Antonio) anyway.

Every Triple-A ballpark was a hitter's haven last year, and San Antonio finished in the 84th percentile for HR and 60th for BABIP among all MiLB parks. Grisham took full advantage, slashing a ridiculous .381/.471/.776 with 13 HR and six steals over 158 PAs before earning an opportunity in the Show. His 14.6 BB% was higher than his 13.9 K%, his 44.6 FB% did a lot of damage with a 26 HR/FB, and he posted a .384 BABIP to boot. Some of this was definitely his environment, but we can't discount that there was some growth too.

Some experts were touting Grisham when the Brewers added him to their MLB roster, but it just didn't work out. He hit .231/.328/.410 with six homers over 183 PAs with sporadic playing time, stealing only one base. His 10.9 BB% was in line with his MiLB performance, but the combination of a 26.2 K% and .286 BABIP made his batting average a drag in fantasy. The Brewers decided to trade Grisham to San Diego in the Luis Urias deal, something they would probably like a mulligan on now.

Conclusion

If you judge Grisham only on his 2020 performance, you see a guy who may not continue to hit for power and strikes out too often. However, both his FB% and K% numbers were much better in the minors, and he figures to help fantasy managers with homers and steals for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the Padres generally hit Grisham leadoff, adding runs to an already-superlative fantasy profile.

This author has no idea why Grisham is only rostered in 75% of Yahoo! leagues even if the Padres have a light schedule the rest of the way, so checking if he's available is recommended. Grisham also makes for a great target if you're already thinking about 2021, as his draft day cost is likely to pale in comparison to the value he can provide.

Verdict: Champ (based on sustainable HR, SB, and R production with a good average)

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