NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 4) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2025)

September 25, 2025

The top NFL Pick'em pool picks for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. Kyle's weekly NFL Pick'em pool targets, avoids, and predictions to help win pick'em contests.

Welcome back to our NFL Pick'em Pool Picks for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. We have our first international game of the year this week, with the Steelers and Vikings playing the first NFL game in Ireland. Also, with three games down, we can start to think about winless and undefeated teams and their chances to make the playoffs. Since the NFL expanded the playoff field from 10 to 12 teams in 1990, there have only been four 0-3 teams to make the comeback to make the playoffs. On the flip side, teams that start the season 3-0 make the playoffs 75% of the time in that same time frame. As we know, the playoffs expanded again to 14 teams in 2020. All five teams that started 0-3 since then missed the playoffs, while 19 of 22 (86%) teams that began with a 3-0 record made the playoffs.

We have six winless and six undefeated teams through three weeks: Buffalo, Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco for the winners. And then Houston, Tennessee, Miami, New York Jets, New Orleans, and the New York Giants for the losers. Optimism for Houston fans is that one of the four teams to make the miraculous comeback since 1990 was the Texans in the 2018 season, winning nine straight and finishing 11-5. 10 of these 12 teams will play against each other this week.

Every week of the 2025 NFL season, I'll lock in picks for each game and tier them based on my confidence level for the selection. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized. As always, we'll dive into some traditional and advanced stats on each side to find matchup advantages. Let's get to the picks for Week 4.

Week 4 NFL Pick'em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

16 - Buffalo vs. New Orleans

After traveling to Seattle last week, New Orleans goes on the road again to a 3-0 Buffalo team for our first matchup of the week between a winless and undefeated team. The Saints looked competent to begin the year until they got steamrolled by the Seahawks 44-13 last week, and now face one of the Super Bowl favorites.

Buffalo is a massive 15.5-point favorite, and it has been at least a 15-point favorite six times in the Josh Allen era. It has won every game, but is 2-3-1 against the spread. The two most recent games both came in the 2023 season, and neither of them came easily. One came earlier in the season as a 15-point favorite against the Tyrod Taylor-led Giants, where it won 14-9.

It was outgained 317 to 297 and lost the turnover battle 2-0. The next game came in one of the last games of the season against the Bailey Zappe-led Patriots, where the Bills averaged just 4.1 yards per play to the Patriots' 5.5, but forced four turnovers and won 27-21.

15 - Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants

The Chargers are 3-0 for the first time since 2002 after opening the season with three straight impressive divisional wins. In our second matchup of the week between an undefeated and winless team, the Chargers head across the country to see if they can terrorize Jaxson Dart and the winless Giants in his NFL debut.

Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter again has his defense playing at an elite level, leading the league with a 35% success rate so far, while Justin Herbert is playing at an MVP level on the offensive side.

Coach Daboll confirms Jaxson Dart has been named the starting QB pic.twitter.com/cgR2Qs8Cvz

— New York Giants (@Giants) September 24, 2025

14 - Detroit vs. Cleveland

This matchup features two teams that are coming off arguably the two most impressive wins of the young 2025 season. Detroit went into Baltimore on Monday night in Week 3 and beat it up, winning 38-30. Jared Goff and the dominant ground attack led the offense to a 0.36 EPA/play day (98th percentile) while the defense sacked Lamar Jackson a whopping seven times, tying a career high for him.

While the Browns hung tough with the same Ravens team for the first half in Week 2, they pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year against the Packers in Week 3, shocking a Green Bay team that looked like the best team in football through two weeks. The defense looks like a legit force in Cleveland, but Detroit is too complete and should take care of business at home.

13 - Denver vs. Cincinnati

Denver has now lost back-to-back games where it feels like it let things slip away. The defense has still generated a ton of pressure, but the offense has scuffled to a 38.6% success rate, fifth worst in the league. The Bengals got embarrassed by the Vikings, 48-10, in their first full game without Joe Burrow.

The Denver defense that is tied for the league lead in pressure rate (50.4%) should feast on Jake Browning, who has easily a league-worst -1.11 EPA/play when under pressure, per NFL Pro.

12 - Green Bay at Dallas

Perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the season, Micah Parsons returns to Dallas on Sunday Night Football. Green Bay is coming off a shocking loss against the Browns, where it scored only 10 points, whereas the Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing 31-14 road loss to the Bears. The Cowboys will be without their best offensive weapon in CeeDee Lamb, and that defense has been shredded every week to open the season.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 4 Pick 'Em Pools

11 - Houston vs. Tennessee

In an AFC South matchup with two of the six winless teams, Houston is looking to repeat history and become the next 0-3 team to recover and make the playoffs. The Titans look like the clear worst team in football at the moment again, while the Texans also have major warts, mainly on offense.

But then again, the margins were very close in each of the Texans' three losses, and if one of them swung the other way, the panic meter wouldn't be so high. However, the offense failed to score 40 points in the first three games, which puts them in dangerous company.

10 - New England vs. Carolina

Carolina crushed Atlanta 30-0 last week with one of the strangest box scores you will see. The Panthers gained only 224 yards and were outgained by 108 yards (332 to 224), but somehow managed to score 30 points due to the Falcons' mistakes and Michael Penix Jr.'s struggles.

It's only the second game this century where a team has been outgained by 100 or more yards and won by 30 or more points. The last game occurred last season when the Lions threw for only 61 net pass yards and gained 225 yards total, but scored a ridiculous 52 points to beat the Titans, 52-14.

Funny enough, the Patriots played a similar sort of game to Atlanta, where they outgained the Steelers 369 to 203, but continually shot themselves in the foot with five turnovers. They've been solid on a down-to-down basis, however, and should move the ball efficiently against a weak Carolina defense.

9 - Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh

The first NFL game in Ireland features Carson Wentz and Aaron Rodgers as the teams' quarterbacks. The Minnesota defense was one of the stories of Week 3 as it ate Jake Browning alive. Wentz should be able to handle the offensive operation at a competent level and ride the run game with Jordan Mason.

On the other side, Pittsburgh was lucky to escape with a win against New England, and we will be fading a 41-year-old Rodgers and this offense against a ferocious Brian Flores-coached defense.

Two defensive TDs, an interception, and two forced fumbles in a single game will CERTAINLY get you that NVP 😤 @Vikings pic.twitter.com/6junWa9cRO

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 24, 2025

8 - Washington at Atlanta

Marcus Mariota stepped in seamlessly for Jayden Daniels last week as Washington cruised to a 41-24 victory. There was plenty of uncertainty heading into the game with injuries on both sides of the ball and a shake-up along the offensive line, but Washington dominated this game up front with five sacks on Geno Smith and rushing for 201 yards.

Atlanta, on the other hand, got slapped around by Carolina, with Michael Penix Jr. having the worst game of his career. It's still much too early to say anything definitive about the second-year QB. Daniels' status is again questionable for this game, but Washington should handle the Falcons regardless. These two teams went to overtime in last season's Week 17 Sunday Night Football matchup, and it should be competitive again.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 4

7 - Miami vs. New York Jets

Our second matchup between winless teams in the same division. Miami's offense has looked relatively good after putting up a stinker in Indianapolis in Week 1. The defense is still bad; however, the Jets offense isn't exactly set up to take advantage of it.

Miami's weakness is in the secondary, where the Jets are unable to pass with Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields at QB and only Garrett Wilson as a receiving threat.

6 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis

Two upper-echelon offensive minds in Sean McVay and Shane Steichen face off in this one. The Rams led the Super Bowl champion Eagles 26-7 in the third quarter last week, yet somehow allowed 26 unanswered points to lose 33-26. The Colts took care of business in a potential letdown spot at Tennessee, winning dominantly, 41-20.

It's one of the premier games of the week with a 4.05 PM ET kickoff. The Colts face a stiff test against a balanced Rams team that ranks in the top six in both offensive and defensive EPA/play, the only team to rank that highly in both. Of course, the Colts offense has had a historic start to the year and leads the league in most categories. It should be a good one.

5 - Seattle at Arizona

An NFC West matchup in Arizona on Thursday Night Football starts Week 4. The Seahawks look crisp on both sides, whereas the Cardinals sit at 2-1, but things feel less stable.

The offensive consistency hasn't been there with a 41.4% offensive success rate, 24th in the league, while the injuries have started to pile up on defense. The Seahawks feel like they are right there with the Rams for the best team in the NFC West.

4 - Chicago at Las Vegas

The Bears crushed the Cowboys at home in Week 3 for Ben Johnson's first win as head coach. They head west to Las Vegas this week to face a Raiders team that has gotten crushed in back-to-back weeks.

Geno Smith took five sacks last week against Washington and had arguably the worst game of his career on Monday night of Week 2 against the Chargers. Chicago looks to be figuring things out and has positive vibes, whereas the coaching staff for Las Vegas feels uninspiring at the moment.

Caleb Williams' 65-yard touchdown pass to rookie Luther Burden III traveled 62.1 yards in the air, the longest completion in the NFL this season, and Caleb's longest completion of his career.#DALvsCHI | #DaBearspic.twitter.com/D5GQjABob3

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 21, 2025

3 - Jacksonville at San Francisco

This feels like a game where Jacksonville can go on the road to steal one. Brock Purdy's status is still up in the air, and now Mac Jones is apparently dealing with a PCL sprain.

The Jaguars defense has played very well through three games, posting the third-best success rate (38.3%) so far, only behind the Packers and Chargers. And the offense has moved the ball fairly efficiently while it is still getting acclimated to Liam Coen's offense.

2 - Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia

Baker Mayfield is playing great football for Tampa Bay right now and has delivered game-winning drives in all three games so far. While Mike Evans is unfortunately out with a hamstring injury, some key pieces on the offensive side are expected to return in stud tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin.

Philadelphia somehow pulled off a comeback win against the Rams last week, pushing the A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith buttons when it needed to. It feels inevitable, but Tampa Bay has had its number recently.

1 - Baltimore at Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. It's a privilege to watch these titan quarterbacks duke it out every other week. Both teams are coming off prime-time night games, with Baltimore getting punched in the mouth last Monday night against Detroit, while Kansas City took advantage of its get-right game against the Giants on Sunday night.

Everyone is aware of Jackson's 1-5 career record against Mahomes and the Chiefs. His 58% career completion percentage against them is the worst of any team he's played against multiple times. Both teams are 1-2 and desperate for wins in what is the most hyped matchup of the week.

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