RADIO
Keith Eyster's top NBA prop bets for 11/17/25: expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Welcome back to another edition of the RotoBaller NBA Props article! We have an exciting eight-game slate on tap in the Association, loaded with star power and high-scoring matchups.
The top matchup of the night features a rematch between the Knicks and Heat. The game carries a 241.5-point total after these two teams went off for 272 points last Friday. Jalen Brunson remains out, while OG Anunoby was also injured last game and has been ruled out for this one. The Heat remain without Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro has yet to make his season debut. In addition to that headliner, the slate also features huge stars like Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and many others. It's shaping up to be a fun night for player props, so let's get to the picks!
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Monday, November 17th. Prop picks can range from individual stats—points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive stats —to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed as well, but always shop around, as those odds change throughout the day as bets come in. Let's get to the picks already. I loaded it up for tonight!
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SMASH. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Early-season NBA player props offer bettors a prime opportunity to get ahead of oddsmakers by capitalizing on new trends, unexpected rotations, and shifts in play style from last season. With teams still settling into their identities, sharp bettors can often find mispriced lines before the markets adjust.
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo over 49.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-114 DK)
- LaMelo Ball over 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-125 DK)
- James Harden over 41.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-121 Caesars)
- Mikal Bridges over 28.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-120 Bet365)
- Brandon Williams over 12.5 Points (-127 DK)
- Ajay Mitchell over 14.5 Points (-123 DK)
Giannis Antetokounmpo over 49.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-114 DK)
The Bucks get an important matchup against their Eastern Conference rival Cleveland Cavaliers, tonight, and Giannis Antetokounmpo tends to show up in a big way in these games. For the season, the perennial MVP candidate is averaging 32.6 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 7.1 assists (51 PRA). The Cavs are solid defensively, but they also play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league. The game environment is much more important than the matchup for a superstar like Giannis. This game carries a hefty 236.5-point total, with the Bucks entering play as 6.5-point underdogs.
Antetokounmpo already smashed against Cleveland once this season, going for 40 points, 14 rebounds, and 9 assists (63 PRA) back in October. Milwaukee will need another huge performance if they hope to keep pace with one of the top teams in the East, and Giannis is generally up to the task.
LaMelo Ball over 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-125 DK)
Hornets star LaMelo Ball is again having a difficult time staying healthy this season. He returned from a five-game absence to play 27 minutes in the NBA Cup game on Friday before resting on the second leg of the back-to-back Saturday. He is completely off the injury report for Monday's matchup against Toronto, but he may be slightly limited. At least it would appear oddsmakers believe he will be, as his rebounds and assists line is a full 4.5 RA below his season average.
The point guard narrowly cleared this line last game despite playing just 27 minutes in Milwaukee, finishing with three rebounds and 10 assists. He gets an even better matchup tonight and should be able to play at least as much as he did on Friday.
The Raptors play at the 12th-fastest pace in the league and rank 13th defensively. Ball should play between 28-32 minutes in this contest, and that should be enough to clear a discounted rebounds and assists line.
James Harden over 41.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-121 Caesars)
This game features two of the slowest-paced teams in the league, which is not generally an environment to target an over on a player prop. However, the role Clippers star James Harden has been playing without Kawhi Leonard and Bradley Beal cannot be overlooked. In five games with those two inactive this season, Harden has posted an elite 32.5% usage rate and 37.6% assist rate, and his 14.0% rebound rate ranks second on the team behind only Ivica Zubac. Harden has averaged 32.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 8.2 assists (49.4 PRA).
James Harden over the last four games:
34.0 PPG
9.8 RPG
8.8 APG
47.1% FG
41.9% 3P
90.5% FT
39.3 MPG https://t.co/hvBgTVxN7K pic.twitter.com/DCR8DUJVO2— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 16, 2025
While the pace of the game leaves something to be desired, the Philadelphia defense on the other side ranks just 18th. Harden has posted at least 52 PRA in three of five games without Leonard and Beal. He posted 38 PRA in a loss to Denver, but he sat the entire fourth quarter in that contest. In the other contest that he fell short, Harden rushed back from an illness and shot just 3-of-15 from the floor. The latter two games feel like the outlier here, and Harden is poised to smash again against a weak Sixers defense.
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Mikal Bridges over 28.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-120 Bet365)
The highest game total of the night comes in the rematch between the Knicks and Heat. Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby are out for the Knicks tonight, and Miles McBride is listed as questionable. When these two teams met on Friday, an insane 272 points were scored in a game that was played over the standard 48 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns stole the show and went off for 39 points in that one. Despite the eruption from Towns, Mikal Bridges still finished with 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists (30 PRA). Bridges did play 42 minutes in that game, and it's doubtful he sees that much court time in this one, but Towns is also unlikely to score 39 points or take 26 shots again.
Miami has played at the fastest pace in the league this season, so there should be another prime opportunity for Bridges to fill up the stat sheet. He should have an even larger role if KAT slows down from last game's volume, and Miles McBride sitting out would also provide more opportunities with the ball for Bridges. Even if neither of those things happens, the game environment is as good as it gets, and Brunson and Anunoby are already out. Bridges should have a massive role and cruise over 28.5 PRA.
Brandon Williams over 12.5 Points (-127 DK)
Outside of a setback against the Clippers last Friday, Brandon Williams has been playing great basketball for the Mavericks this season. His improved play has earned him a spot in the starting lineup, and now he gets a matchup that may be better than Minnesota's defensive reputation would have us believe. The Wolves rank just 17th in defensive efficiency this season.
Williams has cleared 12.5 points in three of his four starts, with the only miss being the aforementioned game last Friday. In that contest, he started 1-for-5 from the floor before being replaced by D'Angelo Russell, who proceeded to have one of his best games of the season. Russell finished with a game-high 28 points and earned the court time over Williams, who finished with just 18 minutes.
Jason Kidd on Brandon Williams:
“Speed, speed, and he’s learning the game, and he’s learning on the fly of how to set the table for others, and so it’s a great challenge for him. We believe he’s going to do great with this opportunity, but the speed that he brings keeps our pace… pic.twitter.com/eWH0V2lQQh
— Noah Weber (@noahweber00) November 17, 2025
Williams should be given more leash in a non-NBA Cup game where he is clearly the option they want to develop as a long-term option this season. The Mavs went right back to Williams as the starter in the following game, and he played 30 minutes to Russell's 22. If he sees that level of playing time again, Williams should easily top 12.5 points.
Ajay Mitchell over 14.5 Points (-123 DK)
Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell has taken a massive step forward this season in the absence of Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins. He moved back to the bench last game after starting five consecutive games, but he still played 31 minutes in the contest. Part of that was aided by an injury to Alex Caruso in the first quarter of the game, but again, the role is not really of concern here. Caruso is listed as questionable, but even if he plays, Mitchell should still have plenty of court time to hit this number.
“Ajay Mitchell is a big-time guard.”@BillSimmons and @LegsESPN discuss Ajay Mitchell’s breakout on the Thunder this season and why his trajectory might mirror that of Jalen Brunson's time on the Mavs. pic.twitter.com/WaskOPXEXF
— The Ringer (@ringer) November 14, 2025
The Thunder are massive 17.5-point favorites in this contest, so a blowout is certainly in play. Last game, when the Thunder beat the Hornets by 13 points and starters were pulled for the final 3.5 minutes, Mitchell stayed on the floor with the other reserves. So, there are a few paths for Mitchell to play 30 minutes again. He could be back in the starting lineup, Alex Caruso could sit out in a game, OKC likely won't require his services, or the Thunder could blow out the Pelicans and Mitchell could play some garbage time.
No matter how it ultimately plays out, Mitchell has been a scoring machine this season, and he should go over 14.5 points again.
NBA Betting Tools & Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
More Fantasy Basketball Analysis
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!
