DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The John Deere Classic (2025)

July 2, 2025

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the 2025 John Deere Classic. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 John Deere. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.

New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings - The John Deere

Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The John Deere Classic

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
• In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
• Units: +340.903 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2025
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record:
• (300-200-55) 60.00%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles

• Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

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• You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space and includes work from Joe Nicely, Joe Idone, and myself.

You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!

Let's Look at the Stats

Field

Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Cuts
Top 20 Entrants: 1

Last Five Winners of The John Deere

Expected Cut-Line at John Deere

TPC Deere Run

7,268 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

Course breakdown will land in my Vegas Report this week

First Look Into Outright Bets

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!

Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Favorite Mid-End Plays

Alex Smalley ($7,900)

There is no need to play things down the middle this week, but I honestly don't see a huge difference in playability once we get past Ben Griffin and Davis Thompson inside of the $9,000+ range. Technically, Jason Day, Michael Thorbjornsen and Lucas Glover all carry intrigue of their own if you want to branch that list out further, but there are a handful of these $7,900+ golfers who make sense at TPC Deere Run when we dive into the data. I will highlight three of the names I bet outright.

Alex Smalley has evolved into a highly volatile golfer, as evidenced by his inconsistent performances of landing inside the top 30 or missing the cut nearly every other start. While the track record of missing the cut last weekend does indicate a surge might be about to happen if we use that flawed math to predict the future, it is Smalley's statistical profile and overall rank that leads me to be most optimistic about his chances in Illinois this week.

Smalley cracked the top 10 of my overall ranking this week for one of the first times all year (excluding the typical upside marks that often put him there). We see that with the Duke product (boooo...Go UNLV) placing ninth for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total, 10th at Easy-Scoring Properties, and fourth when combining my concoction of Easy Scoring, Putting From 5-10 Feet, and GIR Rate.

There is a reason Smalley has nearly won here in the past. Use last week's missed-cut performance to your advantage.

Sam Stevens ($8,300)

I continue to locate these potential first-time winners at prices of 40/1 and above. Tommy Fleetwood at the Travelers, Max Greyserman at the Rocket Mortgage and now Sam Stevens and Alex Smalley at the John Deere Classic.

Even though none of those names have managed to get themselves into the winner's circle after close calls in back-to-back weeks, the profiles of the two that I am most heavily targeting here do show many similar signs of upside.

Stevens ranked second in this field for Strokes Gained Total: Bentgrass, seventh for Expected T2G and first for Weighted Strokes Gained Total. That profile encompasses one of the better returns for par-four scoring, which includes landing as one of only three players to crack the top 25 for Total Driving + Expected Putting at TPC Deere Run. The other two who fit that bill were Cameron Champ and Pierceson Coody.
 

Michael Kim  ($8,200)

Will the real Michael Kim please stand up?

Let's see where ownership lands in DFS, as Kim delivers one of the stranger profiles this week. Perhaps this ends up being a better outright bet than anything else if gamers do hold onto that 2018 result at a massively heightened projection. Still, the data tells the story of a golfer who has not only found something this season but also returns to a property where he won in runaway fashion by eight shots.

Kim is ranking as a top-five player for me at similar easy-scoring courses over the last 50 rounds and might end up being the ultimate wild-card if gamers decide to look the other way. Yes, the floor is low, but the ceiling is tantalizing if the real Michael Kim decides to show up.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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