Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Zach Charbonnet, Isaac Guerendo, Jalen McMillan, Tim Patrick, Juwan Johnson

December 11, 2024

Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 15 of 2024. He looks at surprising performances from Zach Charbonnet, Isaac Guerendo, Jalen McMillan, Tim Patrick, Juwan Johnson.

Josh Allen scored 51.9 fantasy points in Week 14. It was a huge game for Allen and was a surprising result because of just how many points were scored, but it's not like we didn't know Allen was an elite player.

What was more surprising? The top two fantasy running backs this week were Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo. Those are the kind of surprises that we're talking about here in Fact or Fiction, a weekly look at five surprising performances from the previous week.

Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider their showings in the larger scheme. Below, you'll find my analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 14. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?

Zach Charbonnet - RB, Seattle Seahawks

Week 14 stats: 22 carries for 134 yards and two touchdowns, seven receptions for 59 yards - overall RB1

With Kenneth Walker III out in Week 14 due to an ankle and calf injury, Zach Charbonnet got his chance to shine as Seattle's lead back.

Before this game, Charbonnet hadn't rushed for over 30 yards since September 22 against the Dolphins. His most carries since then? Seven against the Falcons. When Seattle drafted Charbonnet last year, there was this thought around the NFL community that he would end up splitting work with Walker, but this has been Walker's backfield.

League-winner Zach Charbonnet https://t.co/KtdI5I8ks6

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 9, 2024

But when Walker has been out over the last two seasons, Charbonnet has thrived. Per RotoViz's Game Splits app, Charbonnet averages an anemic 5.14 fantasy points in half PPR in 24 games with Walker but has averaged 19.72 fantasy points in the five games Walker has missed over that span.

In those five contests, Charbonnet has averaged 17.4 carries for 4.0 yards and 1.2 touchdowns. He's a strong fantasy option in Week 15 if the Seahawks are without Walker again, while he's not worth playing if Walker's on the field.

Verdict: Fact, assuming Walker remains on the sidelines

Isaac Guerendo - RB, San Francisco 49ers

Week 14 stats: 15 carries for 78 yards and two touchdowns, two catches for 50 yards - overall RB2

The San Francisco 49ers are in a rough spot at running back. Christian McCaffrey is out for the season with a PCL injury while Jordan Mason is also on injured reserve. That led to rookie Isaac Guerendo taking the reins as the starting running back in Week 14 against the Bears.

And as players are to do when they're the lead back in a Kyle Shanahan offense, Guerendo delivered big numbers, carrying the ball 15 times for 78 yards and two touchdowns while catching two passes for 50 yards.

Despite uneven snaps this season and a reduction in role after McCaffrey briefly returned from his first injury of the season, Guerendo has gone over 100 scrimmage yards twice and came up just one yard short in another game.

He should be a strong RB2 play this week, but there's one issue, which is that the 49ers' injury curse may have struck him as well. Guerendo left Sunday's game in the fourth quarter with a foot injury.

San Fran has a short week as the team plays on Thursday night. There's a good shot we don't see Guerendo this week, which would make Patrick Taylor Jr. into a strong streaming play.

Verdict: Fact, if he's health

Jalen McMillan - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 14 stats: four receptions for 59 yards and two touchdowns - overall WR8

Since Chris Godwin has been sidelined, the quest to see who'll be the No. 2 receiver for this Buccaneers offense has been very disappointing. It's felt like spinning in circles.

But maybe Jalen McMillan has changed that a bit? On Sunday, McMillan found the end zone twice for the Buccaneers and was targeted seven times, the second-most targets he's seen in a game all season.

Jalen McMillan: 100% separation rate in Week 14 👀

NFL Separation Report: Best receivers at getting open https://t.co/3prnoIADuT

— PFF (@PFF) December 11, 2024

However, he certainly hasn't cleared Sterling Shepard in this battle. McMillan had one more target and two more touchdowns than Shepard, but the two still finished with the same number of receptions while Shepard had four more receiving yards.

Add in that tight end Cade Otton appears to be the real No. 2 option behind Evans, and you certainly don't get a recipe for a late-season breakout from McMillan. I think his role will continue to grow and I love the idea of him as a 2025 sleeper, but Week 14 will probably be his best fantasy finish of 2024.

Verdict: Fiction, but he's on the ascent

Tim Patrick - WR, Detroit Lions

Week 14 stats: six receptions for 103 yards and one touchdown - overall WR9

Congrats to Tim Patrick, who showed out on Thursday night in a big win over the Green Bay Packers. Patrick caught six passes for 43 yards and two touchdowns in the victory. It was his first touchdown since 2021, as Patrick missed both the 2022 and 2023 seasons due to injury.

Seeing Patrick find success again is a great story, but it's probably not a story that's sustainable as far as fantasy production goes.

On one hand, Patrick has 40-plus yards in three consecutive games, which suggests he's solidifying his role as the No. 3 receiver for Detroit. On the other hand, he'll be behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs most weeks in the pecking order.

This was almost certainly the high point of Patrick's 2024 season. But hey -- at least it was a good high point.

Verdict: Fiction

Juwan Johnson - TE, New Orleans Saints

Week 14 stats: four catches for 50 yards and one touchdown - overall TE3

Juwan Johnson finishing as the overall TE3 this week with a stat line of four receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown says more about how bad of a week it was at tight end than it says about Johnson as a player.

George Kittle was the only TE with over 14 fantasy points in half PPR this week. For comparison's sake, eight players hit that mark in Week 13.

Juwan Johnson finds the endzone on a play where he may never be more open than he just was

pic.twitter.com/vUyP2tsrWD

— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) December 8, 2024

Johnson has two touchdown receptions over the last three games and does have some streaming appeal, but this was the first time all season he hit the 50-yard mark, and he just barely hit it. He's a low-end TE2 whose fantasy value depends entirely on whether or not he can catch a touchdown.

Verdict: Fiction

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