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Brant's fantasy football targets and avoids for 2026 based on game scripts. His game-script winners and losers for preseason fantasy drafts, including Tony Pollard.
There are so many factors that go into what makes a player a good or bad selection at ADP. One underrated factor in racking up fantasy points is game script.
If a team often falls behind and has to resort to airing the ball out, game script is in their favor. Just look at the likes of Dak Prescott, George Pickens, and CeeDee Lamb last season. Dallas' defense couldn't stop a nosebleed, but their offense kept trying to keep up. This resulted in elite fantasy seasons.
Targeting offensive players on teams with bad defenses is a smart way to go about drafting. Likewise, avoiding quarterbacks and receivers on teams that play through their defenses can help win leagues. He's not in this article, but C.J. Stroud is a great example. After a strong rookie season, Stroud's fantasy performance has fallen off over the last two seasons as Houston has played through their defense. Read on to see who I am targeting and avoiding based on the projected game script this fantasy season.
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Fantasy Football Game Script Winners
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
One of the NFL’s most exciting young players, Brock Bowers is coming off of an injury-riddled campaign in which he only played in 12 games. However, Bowers is back healthy and is the clear-cut top target in new head coach Klint Kubiak’s offense for Kirk Cousins/Fernando Mendoza.
While Las Vegas did retain Maxx Crosby after the botched trade fiasco with Baltimore, there is a lot left to be desired on the defensive side of the ball for the Raiders. Projected starting cornerbacks Eric Stokes, Taron Johnson, and Darien Porter don’t exactly scream “lockdown.”
The Raiders’ defense is set to be a weak point in year one of the Kubiak era, meaning the offense will often be chasing points. They are favored in just three games, meaning they’ll likely be playing a lot of catch-up.
If you draft Brock Bowers in the 2nd round this year, you will immediately clinch a playoff spot.
Your positional advantage at TE will be unbelievable.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 21, 2026
With the receiving room in Las Vegas being one of the league’s weakest with Jalen Nailor and Tre Tucker leading the way, Bowers will see a monstrous target share on a team that is going to need to air the ball out. The late second round almost feels too low to take the star tight end.
Caleb Douglas, WR, Miami Dolphins
Whether it is beat reporters, fantasy gurus, or Jeff Hafley himself, it seems that nobody can stop hyping up Caleb Douglas, the rookie third-round pick out of Texas Tech. Douglas was a surprise third-rounder at the time, as he flew largely under the radar throughout the predraft process, but he was a standout at Texas Tech and did run a blazing 4.39 40-time at 6-foot-4.
In what is by far the league’s widest-open receiving room, Douglas has immediately differentiated himself from players like Malik Washington, Tutu Atwell, and Jalen Reagor, and is already regarded as the WR1 in Miami.
This situation reminds me all too much of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s rookie season. St. Brown was competing with the likes of Tyrell Williams, Quintez Cephus, and Kalif Raymond for targets in what was perceived as one of the league’s worst receiving rooms in years. However, the fourth-round rookie exploded down the stretch of the season and won fantasy leagues.
With so little competition for targets and remaining practically free in drafts, Douglas very well could do the same. Oh, and this one-handed catch was pretty impressive:
Caleb Douglas oh my 😮
MIAvsWAS
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/21vkGuMeTb— NFL (@NFL) August 14, 2026
Many project the Dolphins to be a run-heavy team due to the nature of their roster. Malik Willis is a running quarterback, and the backfield has talent in De'Von Achane, Ollie Gordon II, and Jaylen Wright. However, this team has a win total of 4.5.
Their defense is awful, and they won’t be competitive in many games. Miami’s going to have to air the ball out, and someone is going to have to catch those passes. It will be Douglas.
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams has scored no less than 13 touchdowns in each of the past three seasons, and has finished as an RB1 in each of the past three seasons. Despite that, you can still get him in the third round in most drafts.
Yes, Blake Corum saw an increased workload last season. However good Corum may be, Sean McVay loves a one-back system, and Williams is his guy.
Even if Corum does get more work than he did last season, the Rams are favored in 16 of 17 games this season. The defense is set for a monumental step up with the additions of Myles Garrett, Trent McDuffie, and more, and Los Angeles will be bleeding clock in many games.
Williams will punch the ball in quite a bit this season for a loaded Rams team, and should rack up points late in games while running the clock out in blowout wins.
Fantasy Football Game Script Losers
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals
I love Jeremiyah as much as the next guy, no pun intended, but an every-down role early in his rookie season just does not seem fathomable with Tyler Allgeier and James Conner both on the roster.
Arizona is only projected to be favored in one or two games this season, and their defense lacks star power in year one of the Mike LaFleur era. Despite the crowded running-back room, this Cardinals team will have to air the ball out while playing from behind, much like they did a season ago.
There is no guarantee that Love even earns the passing-down role. Conner has been a reliable pass-blocking back over the course of his career, and the veteran may overstep Love for that role once he returns from injury.
Speaking of injury, Love is already dealing with a high ankle sprain and is no guarantee to be active in Week 1. While he is immensely talented and may be tough to keep off of the field as the season draws on, game script is not going to be friendly to the rookie this season.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
There are a lot of bad teams on paper in the NFL this season. And then there are the Jets, who shattered NFL records last season due to their inability to get an interception. Aaron Glenn added Nahshon Wright, who secured five interceptions last season, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, who has been known to create turnovers over the course of his career, but this roster is still not pretty on either side of the ball.
New York’s Vegas win total is at 5.5 this season, and in my opinion, that is an easy under. The defense has little in place to build on last year’s historically bad unit, which will put the offense in situations where it’ll be leaning on Geno Smith’s arm.
Glenn has also notoriously mentioned that he likes both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis and wants both backs to mix into the offense, which would limit Hall’s touches even more.
Playing on such a bad offense and dealing with bad game scripts has limited Hall the past two seasons, as he has finished as a mid-to-low-end RB2 with very limited upside. Why would that change this year?
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
People are bullish on Cam Ward as he enters Year 2, and I am a Ward fan myself, but the Titans’ backfield is messier than many think. Tony Pollard is 29 and has lost some of the burst that made him an enticing fantasy option in Dallas.
Tyjae Spears will remain a factor in the backfield, and do not sleep on rookie Nicholas Singleton, who holds many Penn State rushing records. Pollard and Spears split the work in the Week 1 preseason game on the first drive when the starters were active, but Pollard was the one to earn the call at the goal line.
Tony Pollard caps off a 96-yard drive with a TD
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/FB0dHmcINO
— NFL (@NFL) August 14, 2026
Pollard is far from a workhorse back, and he slots into a committee on a team with a win total of 6.5. ESPN’s analytics department pegs the Titans’ win total even lower, at 4.8.
Even if the offense does take a step forward, Robert Saleh has his work cut out for him on the defensive side of the ball. Outside of Jeffery Simmons, there are not a lot of names that pop out at you on Tennessee’s defense.
They ranked 28th in points allowed last season, and should find themselves in a similar spot this season. That will leave them chasing points, meaning they will not be doing a whole lot of running late in games.
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Below are some popular searches and comparisons from our Who To Draft tool for 2026 drafts for Tony Pollard, Breece Hall, Caleb Douglas, Kyren Williams, Brock Bowers:
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