RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, June 25th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Intro and Overview
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/25
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- New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-165) - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Brayden Point ($9,600 DK/ 15,500 FD) - Point has now extended his goal-scoring streak to nine games so there is no need to fade him as he is scorching hot right now. He might take a little bit of a hit if Nikita Kucherov misses game 7 due to injury but that also means that he will need to step up in his absence from an offensive standpoint.
- Steven Stamkos ($8,600 DK/ 12,500 FD) - Stamkos will need to bring his "A" game on Friday night especially if Nikita Kucherov is forced to miss this final game of the series against the Islanders. Stamkos has been very active on the offensive end over his last two games as he has scored two goals and taken nine shots on goal during that stretch and should benefit from being on home ice which is where he has scored all four of his points this series.
- Andrei Vasilevskiy ($10,400 DK) - Vasilevskiy has gone 2-1 on home ice against the Islanders this postseason and in those three starts, he has only allowed four total goals which is extremely impressive. In his last outing on home ice, Vasilevkiy pitched a 21 save shutout in an 8-0 and the Lightning will need a performance like this to ensure a trip back to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Islanders have struggled to generate high-quality chances all series long as they are averaging less than nine high danger chances per game so this only favors Vasilevskiy in the net.
Value Picks
- Jordan Eberle ($7,400 DK/ $13,500 FD) - While he might not be the cheapest option over on FD, Eberle looks to be a value play on DK. He is coming off of a five-shot performance where he recorded his only goal of the entire series against the Lightning. New York plays a very physical brand of hockey so they will need their top offensive weapons like Eberle to stand out in order to beat Tampa for a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals.
- Blake Coleman ($4,800 DK/ $9,500 FD) - Coleman is coming off of a four blocked shot performance and it was his best fantasy scoring game out of the entire series. When the Lightning have been on home ice, Coleman's line has seen the most time against the third and first lines of the Islanders, and when at home against the Pageau line, they have created seven scoring chances in just seven minutes of ice time while only creating three chances and one high-danger chance against the Barzal line.
- Casey Cizikas ($3,400 DK/ $8,000 FD) - We already know what Cizikas is and he is a grinder that will see 14 minutes of ice time and will usually see ice time against opposing teams top lines. He is coming off of a five-peripheral game and brings a solid floor based on peripheral stats alone as he has averaged four peripherals over his last five games. Cizikas makes for a great value play in all formats and is a big-time salary saver which allows you to pay up for some of the stars on this slate.
Stacks (In order of preference)
- TBL 1- Palat/ Point/ Kucherov (DTD)
- NYI 1- Komarov/ Barzal/ Eberle
- TBL 2- Killorn/ Cirelli/ Stamkos
Player Pool (In order of preference)
C- Point, Barzal, Nelson, Gourde, Pageau, Cirelli, Cizikas
W- Kucherov, Stamkos, Beauvillier, Eberle, Palat, Palmieri, Coleman Bailey, Killorn, Komarov, Zajac, Goodrow
D- Hedman, Pulock, McDonagh, Sergachev, Dobson, Pelech, Leddy, Cernak, Mayfield
G- Varlamov, Vasilevskiy
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
