RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season has now entered the postseason which is the most exciting time to watch and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, June 17th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
Intro and Overview
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together.
In the image above, you'll see that Sidney Crosby is skating in-between Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust and this line has skated together for most of the year. The idea behind staking forward lines is that if Crosby gets a goal, there is a higher percentage and chance that either Rust or Guentzel would get credited with an assist, therefore, resulting in more fantasy points.
The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play on that site just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 6/17
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- Tampa Bay Lightning (-140) vs. New York Islanders - 5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
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NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown Edition
Captain Picks
- Brayden Point ($9,600 DK/ 14,500 FD) - Point has been on fire throughout the last two postseasons as he has 18 goals in his last 23 postseason games played. He is currently riding a five-game goal streak and has managed to record seven points over that same five-game stretch. While his line could see a tougher challenge against the depth of the Islanders, Point has shown why he is one of the better all-around centers in the game from both a scoring and playmaking standpoint.
- Nikita Kucherov ($11,000 DK/ 15,500 FD) - Kucherov flashed his upside in Game 2 as he racked up three assists in a 4-2 win against New York. Kucherov has totaled eight assists over his last five games while also scoring two goals so the upside is there despite carrying a high price tag on both sites. While Point is the safer play, Kucherov is an ideal candidate for tournament builds.
- Semyon Varlamov ($10,200 DK) - With the Islanders getting the home-ice advantage, this definitely benefits the Islanders goaltending tandem. Varlamov is now 1-1 against the Lightning with a 2.71 goals allowed average and held the Lightning to just one goal in their first game. He is 14-4-4 with a 1.98 goals allowed average when tending the net on home ice and has recorded four shutouts at home as well so if the Islanders can limit the high-danger chances, Varlamov could have a big game.
Value Picks
- Josh Bailey ($6,200 DK/ $10,500 FD) - Bailey has been on a little bit of a hot streak as he has recorded five points over his last four games while taking only five shots on goal. While the shot volume is down, his line should see plenty of ice time which only means more scoring pportunities.
- Kyle Palmieri ($5,600 DK/ $10,000 FD) - The 2nd and 3rd line of the Islanders could be matching up against the top line of the Lightning which means more chances could be created for the Islander's depth lines. Palmieri has yet to record a point in this series and he is too skilled of a winger to pointless in three straight games so I expect him to have a green light with the puck which could result in a goal being scored.
- Blake Coleman ($4,400 DK/ $8,000 FD) - From the Lightning perspective, one guy that stands out at a decent price point is Blake Coleman. Coleman was able to get on the scorer's sheet on Tuesday night by notching an assist but you can always count on Coleman to have a few shots on goal with an occasional blocked shot which gives him a solid floor from a fantasy aspect.
Stacks (In order of preference)
- TBL 1- Palat/ Point/ Kucherov
- NYI 2- Komarov/ Barzal/ Eberle
- TBL 2- Killorn/ Cirelli/ Stamkos
Player Pool (In order of preference)
C- Point, Barzal, Nelson, Gourde, Pageau, Cirelli, Cizikas
W- Kucherov, Stamkos, Beauvillier, Eberle, Palat, Bailey, Killorn, Komarov, Palmieri, Coleman, Zajac, Goodrow
D- Hedman, Pulock, McDonagh, Sergachev, Dobson, Pelech, Leddy, Cernak, Mayfield
G- Varlamov, Vasilevskiy
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
NHL Player News and Updates
[jiffyNews category_include='9958' headline='More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis'
