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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season. Kipp's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season! For anyone who isn't familiar, each week we give you our recommended Survivor Pool picks to target and also avoid for 2026 Survivor leagues.
This week I'm pinch-hitting on this feature for our friend Kevin Tompkins -- kinda like the backup quarterback coming off the bench.
Our top pick last week was San Francisco, so thankfully we all survived if the 49ers were selected. We will look to go two-for-two on targets this week!
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Win Probabilities For Week 3
Before jumping into the picks for Week 3, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with the Vegas data for each NFL matchup this week.
| TEAM | ML ODDS | Implied Prob | De-Vig Prob |
| KC | -650 | 86.67% | 83.16% |
| SF | -455 | 81.98% | 78.67% |
| GB | -345 | 77.53% | 74.41% |
| BUF | -325 | 76.47% | 73.35% |
| DET | -285 | 74.03% | 70.95% |
| SEA | -278 | 73.54% | 70.50% |
| NYG | -265 | 72.60% | 69.58% |
| PHI | -198 | 66.44% | 63.69% |
| CIN | -185 | 64.91% | 62.25% |
| NO | -180 | 64.29% | 61.64% |
| CAR | -162 | 61.83% | 59.34% |
| JAX | -148 | 59.68% | 57.21% |
| BAL | -148 | 59.68% | 57.21% |
| MIN | -142 | 58.68% | 56.35% |
| HOU | -135 | 57.45% | 55.14% |
| LAR | -135 | 57.45% | 55.14% |
| IND | 114 | 46.73% | 44.86% |
| DEN | 114 | 46.73% | 44.86% |
| TB | 120 | 45.45% | 43.65% |
| NE | 124 | 44.64% | 42.79% |
| DAL | 124 | 44.64% | 42.79% |
| CLE | 136 | 42.37% | 40.66% |
| LV | 150 | 40.00% | 38.36% |
| PIT | 154 | 39.37% | 37.75% |
| CHI | 164 | 37.88% | 36.31% |
| TEN | 215 | 31.75% | 30.42% |
| WAS | 225 | 30.77% | 29.50% |
| NYJ | 230 | 30.30% | 29.05% |
| LAC | 260 | 27.78% | 26.65% |
| ATL | 275 | 26.67% | 25.59% |
| ARI | 350 | 22.22% | 21.33% |
| MIA | 470 | 17.54% | 16.84% |
We can extrapolate the implied winning percentage from Vegas odds, and then remove the vig (or the upcharge that is built into the price by the books) to get a true implied win probability. You can de-vig any line using our new No-Vig Calculator right here! Check it out; it's super cool and useful.
Now, let's look at the Survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 3.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 3
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
It does not get more clear-cut than selecting the Kansas City Chiefs to take down the Miami Dolphins this week. This will be a chalky pick, but there is plenty to like about this selection, with the only real concern being the fact that the Chiefs have to travel.
The Chiefs have started the season 2-0 against formidable opponents in the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts. They have done this with a strong rushing attack, averaging 186 rushing yards per game and ranking second-best in the NFL.
Their rushing attack is a big reason I am willing to back them on the road against a Miami Dolphins squad that could struggle to win a game this season. Miami has been suspect against the run, allowing 112 rushing yards per game and ranking in the bottom half of the league.
The Chiefs likely will not struggle to move the ball through the air, either. Overall, Miami is allowing nearly 224 passing yards per game, which also ranks in the bottom half of the league. The Chiefs also rank best in the league, averaging over 457 yards of total offense per game.
This is almost as good a spot as you will find to take a favorite, and I think picking against the Dolphins each week will obviously become a recurring theme.
4th down. TOUCHDOWN.
Mahomes connects with Jalen Royals to regain the lead.
INDvsKC on NBC/Peacock
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/UdvTsyALzW— NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2026
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers were mentioned here last week, so I understand if you do not have them available, but they are in a ripe spot to collect a win against the 1-1 Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers are 8.5-point home favorites and have every right to be.
The 49ers have started 2-0 by beating the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins by combined scores of 62-20. Their defense has been lights out, allowing just 10 points per game and ranking third-best in the league in this category.
Their offense has also been clicking, racking up nearly 381 total yards per game and ranking eighth-best in the league. They will be up against the Arizona Cardinals, who just got lit up by the Drew Lock-led Seahawks, 31-7.
Arizona has not shown much on offense in their two games against the Chargers and Seahawks, despite beating the Chargers in Week 1. Overall, they are averaging just 16.5 points per game, which ranks ninth-worst in the league.
I usually would not recommend making a Survivor pick in a divisional matchup, but the 49ers have looked very good thus far and are getting the matchup at home. They are also 6-2 against the Cardinals since 2022.
Also Consider Using
- New York Giants (vs. TEN)
- Green Bay (vs. ATL)
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 3
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
There is talk that the Seahawks' starting quarterback, Sam Darnold, could be back as early as this week against the Commanders, but I am out on taking the Seahawks here regardless. While I do think they will ultimately win, I would not risk my entry on a road game across three time zones.
While Washington lost starting quarterback Jayden Daniels due to an elbow injury last week, Marcus Mariota is a savvy veteran quarterback who could pull a rabbit out of his hat at any point. I think this game could be a lot closer than the 6.5-point spread might indicate.
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Yes, Detroit has a high-powered offense that can drop 30 points in any given game, but are you ready to trust them to win a game with your Survivor pool on the line? I am personally not. I think the Lions will have some better opportunities later in the season once they get warmed up.
Thus far, they won a nail-biter at home against the New Orleans Saints, and followed that up with a loss at the Buffalo Bills. The loss at the Bills was brutal, as their defense could not stop the pass or the run. Now, they have the scrappy Jets coming to town.
New York opened Week 1 by defeating the Titans on the road and then proceeded to take the Green Bay Packers to overtime, albeit in a losing effort, in Week 2. The Jets honestly should have beaten Green Bay, so I am not quick to take the Lions here.
The Bills defense collapse the pocket for the sack!
DETvsBUF on Prime Video
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/7mri0gBDgm— NFL (@NFL) September 18, 2026
While the Lions will probably win this game, I do not want to be sweating out another fourth quarter with them this week. Plus, I would not be surprised to see a heavy chunk of the pool be in on the Lions here.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
This is an easy fade this week for me, given what we have seen from the Eagles this season. Yes, they handled the Washington Commanders in Week 1 with pretty much no issue, but their Week 2 game against the Tennessee Titans was a nightmare.
I was on the Eagles in Survivor last week and thought I was toast before the Eagles miraculously pulled out the win. I know the Bears are likely to be without Caleb Williams for a bit with the hamstring injury, but I cannot trust the Eagles right now after that game against Tennessee.
Tyson Bagent and the Bears defense are not scary; to be clear, this is more of a fade of Philadelphia and their offense, which gave me plenty of pause last week.
Darius Cooper GIVES THE EAGLES THE LEAD
PHIvsTEN on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/jTkRuCKkaq— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026
Also Consider Fading
- New Orleans Saints (vs. LV)
- Cincinnati Bengals (at PIT)
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