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Steve Janik analyzes the NFL Week 7 slate of games and recommends his best bets. He selects three games and breaks down each team's roster, recent performance, and situation to help you make informed decisions when gambling on this NFL season.
We had a solid 2-0 start last week after Detroit and Tampa bay did what they needed to do. Then I put too much trust in Andy Dalton to lead a new team and he let us down substantially. Dallas is in real trouble here if he can't figure it out, and that's a terrible thing considering the talent on that offense. Nonetheless, we move onto Week 7. I wasn't even sure if we'd get to this point in the season, but here we are!
- Week 6: 2-1 (67%, +.85u)
- 2020 Season: 10-7-1 (55%, +3.07u)
(You can stop the intro here if you’ve read this article before). However, things are going to get interesting with the amount of injuries we're seeing around the league, but that will make capping more fun, I think? I'm not a professional but I love researching stats and finding value. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me. I "bet to lose" one unit on almost every play but will definitely label it if I do differently.
I'm here to bring you my best bets and recommendations for Week 7 of the 2020 NFL season. I'll be here at RotoBaller all season long and you can find me on Twitter @RotoStevieJ. I am always down to chat and spend most of my days and nights browsing for information or news. You can also follow me on the Action app (@sgjanik6) where I'll post every pick I have for a day and week. With that, I hope you enjoy, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5, -186) at Houston Texans
O/U: 57
As I called it last week, the Packers were going to struggle against Tampa Bay's defense. Sure, Aaron Rodgers and co. got up 10-0 early and then proceeded to give up 38 straight points for their first loss. Rodgers had been just about as perfect as you could be coming into that game, but he's ready to put the two picks behind him. To help him, the team needs to get back to running the ball. After rushing for 417 yards through the first two games, they've rushed for just 280 in the last three combined. It would help if they decided to stick with their workhorse Aaron Jones (five touchdowns), but they've been sprinkling in Jamaal Williams quite frequently. Davante Adams is back, so when they do pass, expect Rodgers to look his way almost exclusively.
This Texans team is a mess and a half. Having Deshaun Watson has kept this team respectable from an offensive perspective, one man and a few of his offensive teammates can only foot so much of the bill. David Johnson has been mediocre at best, but that's more an estimation of the offensive line. Will Fuller is off to a great start but has one of the tougher matchups in the league this week with Jaire Alexander. On the other end, the Texans house one of the worst defensive units, allowing 30 ppg and over 420 ypg. Green Bay will certainly be a test, considering the Houston allowed over 600 yards against Tampa Bay.
Green Bay is 7-4 against the spread after a loss since the 2018 season, and while that's not otherworldly, it does show that they come ready to play following a defeat. Rodgers is still an elite quarterback and last week was a strange occurrence for the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Green Bay has better weapons and a better defense, albeit not great themselves. While this is a very popular public play, I love the Pack in a bounce-back effort. If you’re the type of gambler to fade the public, I would completely understand the rationale as well.
Pick: Green Bay -3.5 (-106, Fanduel) 1 Unit
Kansas City (-9.5, -435) at Denver Broncos
O/U: 46
The Chiefs took reign over the Bills thanks to a stout run game in a rain-soaked Monday Night Football game. Tallying 245 yards on the ground means Patrick Mahomes doesn't have to be the star and savior, and that's what makes them so dangerous. The gunslinger averages 280 ypg with 16TD and just one interception and has his full arsenal of weapons. This will also be the first time we see Le'Veon Bell in a Chiefs uniform, so it will be interesting to see how they utilize him with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1.
The Broncos actually have one of the best defenses in the league through their first five games. They rank in the Top 10 in both rush and pass defense DVOA. The problem is their offense's ineptitude has them on the field constantly; their opponents average over 32 minutes of possession when Denver is host, compared to just 28 when on the road. They held the Patriots in check last week, but yet again, their offenses inability to sustain drives score (just 12 points!!) hampered them. Considering the Broncos allow just 22 ppg, there is room for improvement here with a better offense, but sadly it's tough to expect from Denver.
Kansas City might be a little timid with displaying too much of Bell in his first game, but that's not an issue when you have Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. They're averaging 27.7 ppg on the road thus far but I see them coming out and firing against their divisional opponent. I'd trust the full game over, but Denver's offense scares me.
Pick: Kansas City Team Total Over 27.5 (-104, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, -177) at Arizona Cardinals
O/U: 56
Fresh off their bye week, Seattle has scored at least 31 points in four of their five games and is true contender for the NFC Championship at 5-0. Russell Wilson makes defenses pay and his weapons Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are part of that with nine combined touchdowns. The fun part of this offense is that Chris Carson hasn't even gotten started. The team averages just 115 ypg on the ground, but keep in mind Carson was dealing with injuries prior to their Week 6 bye. This is a team that has averaged over 130 rushing ypg over the last two seasons, so expect the run game to see an uptick relatively soon. Defensively, Seattle has been stout against the run, allowing just 110 ypg, but they have some real issues against the pass, allowing 370 ypg, the worst mark in the league.
Arizona is fresh off of two blow out wins against garbage teams, the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys, sans Dak Prescott. While they've scored 30 and 38 in their last two games, respectively, they averaged 24.5 ppg in their first four contests. Kyler Murray is such an exciting dual-threat player but still has some work to do, as evidenced by the six interceptions. He's led the offense to average 402.5 ypg, good for fifth in the NFL. The run game has been at the forefront, as they've tallied at least 109 yards in every game so far. In terms of passing, naturally, DeAndre Hopkins is the only passing option worth noting as he's accounted for over 40% of the team's passing yards through six games. On the defensive end, the Cardinals have been better at home allowing just 319 yards of offense but keep in mind that was against Washington and Detroit. Patrick Peterson is a shell of his former self and they're also without top pass rusher Chandler Jones.
The Cardinals have had a pretty easy schedule so far playing Washington, Detroit, and the Jets. While the Seahawks schedule hasn't really been much better, their 5-0 record would be more worrisome if the talent on the team wasn't as strong, but this unit was expected to contend for the big one. This is a primetime spot that Seattle is used to, and against an inferior team, give me the Seahawks.
Pick: Seattle -3.5 (-106, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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