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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on June 18, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing nine-game matinee mix on DraftKings and a 10-game grouping on FanDuel, which includes the Yankees-Red Sox game. The weather looks like it could get tricky today, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/18/2023 and the slate locking at 1:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Charlie Morton, ATL vs. COL ($10,500 DK, $10,200 FD)
Today's pitching options are ugly. Nobody will make you feel overly confident, and I expect spread-out ownership. Among the options, Morton feels like one of the safer plays. The price is steep for what Morton is these days, but he's got a track record, upside, and a favorable matchup.
Morton sports a solid 3.60 ERA through 13 starts this season. The underlying numbers aren't as pretty, featuring a 4.62 xERA, 3.95 xFIP, and a 10% walk rate, but he still brings a strong 25.7% strikeout rate and a dominant 31.4% whiff rate. Morton can get hit, but he's registered at least eight strikeouts in four of his last six appearances and has registered at least five strikeouts in all but one outing this season.
What helps Morton stand out above the other arms is his matchup. The Rockies score a middling 4.3 runs per game on the season, but that figure drops to just 3.68 runs per game away from Coors Field. They're one of the league's worst offenses and are even worse against right-handed pitchers. On the road, Colorado owns a weak .662 OPS, .119 ISO, and an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. That includes a generous 25% strikeout rate.
Compared to other spots on this slate, conditions look fairly ideal for Morton. He hasn't performed to the level we've seen from him the past couple of seasons, but strikeouts are still on the table. Morton may surrender some damage, though his floor is firmer than others.
Jesus Luzardo, MIA vs. WSH ($9,900 DK, $9,500 FD)
The price is tough to reckon with, but Luzardo is one of the standout pitchers on this slate. He sports a respectable 3.76 xERA and 3.71 xFIP through 14 starts. That includes a .305 xwOBA, .235 xBA, and a 6.4% walk rate. Luzardo's best asset is his strong 27.3% strikeout rate. He's managed at least five strikeouts in all but one outing this season and has registered double-digit DK points in 12 of 14 starts. Luzardo rarely exits a start with a clean line, but his strikeouts typically compensate for it.
The Nationals bring one of the league's more meandering offenses, scoring 4.2 runs per game. They aren't intimidating, but they do fare better against left-handed pitchers. Washington sports a respectable 109 wRC+ against southpaws, and they strike out at a below-average rate. It's not a perfect spot for Luzardo, but he did limit them to one run over six innings with seven strikeouts during their square-off last month.
I wouldn't say I love the idea of rostering Luzardo, but given the other options, I endorse him. After Morton and Luzardo, things get very uncertain, and at least these two offer a tangible upside with their strikeout numbers.
Also consider: Jon Gray, Louie Varland, Ronel Blanco
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corey Seager – SS, TEX vs. Chris Bassitt ($6,000 DK, $4,400 FD)
Seager is expensive, but he's worth the spending up for today. Despite missing a chunk of the early season, Seager has been on an absolute tear in 2023. He's slashing .344/.407/.623 with nine home runs through 38 games. Seager ranks in the 97th percentile or better with each of his .335 xBA, .628 xSLG, .433 xwOBA, 94.6 mph average exit velocity, 55.2% hard-hit rate, and 19.2% barrel rate.
This is a terrible matchup for Chris Bassitt. He's surrendered a .427 xSLG and a 9.5% barrel rate overall this season, but his numbers against left-handed hitters are absolutely atrocious. Bassitt is getting lit up by lefties to the tune of a .615 slugging percentage, .412 wOBA, and 12 home runs. I feel very strongly about Seager's chances of success today.
Gunnar Henderson – 3B/SS, BAL vs. Jameson Taillon ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD)
Henderson cooled off in recent days following a torrid stretch of games. Through 12 June appearances, Henderson sports a 1.137 OPS with five home runs. Against right-handed pitchers, he's slugging .530 with a .282 ISO and 137 wRC+ so far in his rookie campaign. Henderson entered the season as baseball's top prospect and figures to continue trending upward. His positional flexibility is an extra incentive to slot him into lineups today.
Jameson Taillon simply isn't an effective pitcher right now. He carries a 5.59 xERA and 4.84 xFIP through 11 starts. That includes an ugly .509 xSLG, .364 xwOBA, .278 xBA, and 12.4% barrel rate. Taillon's problems are particularly pronounced against left-handed hitters, who are slugging .630 off of him this season.
Ryan O'Hearn – 1B/OF, BAL vs. Jameson Taillon ($2,800 DK, $2,600 FD)
Continuing to pick on Taillon's struggles, O'Hearn is an excellent value play. He's recently assumed an everyday playing role with Ryan Mountcastle moving to the injured list, and O'Hearn has not squandered the opportunity. He sports an impressive .338/.381/.623 slash line with five home runs through 27 games this season. O'Hearn probably won't sustain these numbers all season, but for his price and matchup, he's a worthwhile punt today.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Shohei Ohtani – OF, LAA vs. Zack Greinke ($6,500 DK, $4,500 FD)
Ohtani leads the majors with 23 home runs, so this isn't exactly a sneaky pick. Regardless, he is absolutely red-hot at the plate right now. He's homered six times over the past eight games and owns a phenomenal 1.012 OPS overall. That includes a .596 xSLG, .408 xwOBA, 92.9 mph average exit velocity, 50% hard-hit rate, and 16.2% barrel rate.
Greinke's best days are well behind us by now. He sports a .484 xSLG, .287 xBA, .342 xwOBA, and 8.8% barrel rate. Greinke's problems have been much worse with left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .529 slugging percentage and .361 wOBA.
Jorge Soler – OF, MIA vs. Patrick Corbin ($4,900 DK, $3,500 FD)
Soler has been crushing the ball all season. Through 66 games, he's posted a .569 xSLG, 18% barrel rate, and .392 xwOBA. That amounts to a .258/.357/.558 slash line with 20 home runs and a 147 wRC+. Soler has absolutely slaughtered left-handed pitching to the tune of a .889 slugging percentage, .556 ISO, and nine home runs this season. His prowess for handling southpaw pitching is a career-long trend, and Soler is particularly locked in at the moment.
Patrick Corbin is a target each time he takes the mound. He ranks in the bottom 10th percentile or worse among all pitchers with his 6.31 xERA, .523 xSLG, .382 xwOBA, 91.7 mph average exit velocity, and .318 xBA. Right-handed hitters have taken him deep 12 times already this season, including a .502 slugging percentage.
Jordan Walker – OF, STL vs. Carlos Carrasco ($3,000 DK, $2,900 FD)
Walker has been reinvigorated following his most recent call-up earlier this month. Entering today, Walker has hit safely in 10 consecutive games, including three home runs in that span. His prospect pedigree and power potential are prolific, and Walker may finally be putting it all together at the major-league level. Despite a stumbling start to the season, he's slashing .295/.353/.467 overall with five home runs. His price remains cheap, but it may not stay that way for long if he continues to produce.
Carrasco has looked awful this season. He carries a 6.08 xERA and 5.46 xFIP, including a .492 xSLG, .285 xBA, 90.5 mph average exit velocity, and 42.4% hard-hit rate. Right-handed hitters are slugging .489 against him this year with a .362 wOBA. The Cardinals have been pretty underwhelming this season, but I like Walker as a value one-off in this spot.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Baltimore Orioles vs. Jameson Taillon
Based on the Gunnar Henderson and Ryan O'Hearn shoutouts above, you may have gathered that I like the Orioles today. Jameson Taillon has been awful this season. Through 11 starts, he's posted a 5.59 xERA, which consists of a .509 xSLG, .364 xwOBA, .278 xBA, and 12.4% barrel rate. Taillon is vulnerable to hitters of all handedness, but lefties have torched him this season. That's not a good combo against a left-hand dominant Orioles lineup.
The Orioles' offense is strong, averaging 4.9 runs per game for the season. They take a hit without Ryan Mountcastle in the lineup. Considering lefties are slugging .630 against Taillon, his impact won't be missed quite as much today. Outside of Adley Rutschman, none of the Baltimore bats are terribly expensive, which makes their stacks very accessible alongside top-end pitching.
Favorite Plays: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Ryan O'Hearn
Los Angeles Angels vs. Zack Greinke
Greinke has settled in as a mediocre pitcher at this point in his career. Through 14 starts, he's posted a 4.84 xERA. That includes an awful .482 xSLG, .287 xBA, and .342 xwOBA. Greinke has been hit especially hard by left-handed hitters in 2023. With the last couple of seasons as evidence, right-handed bats can handle him, too. Looking beyond Greinke, the Royals' bullpen sports a 4.85 ERA, the third-worst mark in the majors. There will be plenty of opportunity for the Angels to pounce.
The Angels bring a scary offense, scoring 4.9 runs per game, but their lineup is top-heavy. Ohtani and Trout will be the priority plays here, and there's plenty of value, too. Surging bats like Mickey Moniak and Taylor Ward will be great additions to any stack, while value pieces like Luis Rengifo and Matt Thaiss can help supplement the steep price of rostering Ohtani and/or Trout. The Angels are viable as a full stack or mini stack, and there are plenty of one-off plays.
Favorite Plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak, Brandon Drury, Taylor Ward
Also Consider: Houston Astros, Miami Marlins
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