RADIO
It's Wednesday and we're still rolling through the AL and NL Championship Series with the main slate starting at 5:05 CT. The Tampa Bay Rays are on the verge of an impressive sweep over Houston as they're up 3-0 and will be throwing out their ace in Glasnow. The Braves barely held on to win last night after taking a huge early lead, and they're now up 2-0 on the favored Dodgers. However, The Dodgers will have a clear pitching edge in this one and one has to believe that they'll have Clayton Kershaw ready, so they're far from out of this series.
I'll be going through some of the best plays at each position on DraftKings with a GPP/tournament lineup build in mind. That's not to say that these players won't work in cash-game lineups, but we're looking to provide high-upside plays for the most part (it's more fun that way, anyway). As a reminder, it is best practice to stack 3-5 hitters from the same team for DFS purposes, so try to envision how the games will play out and build your lineups from there This mindset changes a bit in these condensed slates - use your best judgment but be careful not to put all your eggs in one basket. Utilizing unique lineup combinations (i.e the nine, one, two, and three hitters) is another great way to differentiate.
In this article, I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the DraftKings main slate on 10/14/2020. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kringstad19
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow - SP, TB vs HOU ($9,100)
Glasnow has a few blemishes in his profile that include a relatively-high 4.08 ERA, 1.7 HR/9, 23.4% HR/FB%, and 38.4% Hard%. That being said, he's also rocking a solid 1.13 WHIP, 2.75 FIP, 3.04 SIERA, and .199 batting average against. What we're attacking here is his unmatched upside and potential ceiling as his 38.2% K% is astronomical and a 14% SwStr% is extremely high as well. Though the 'Stros don't strike out often (only Tucker, Correa, and Maldonado have K%'s over 20% against RHP), many of their best hitters are RHH, a split in which Glasnow held a 37.9% K% and 3.35 xFIP against this season. Glasnow struggled in his last start, which could keep rostership down, but he had five straight starts of 21+ DK points prior to that and has hit 33+ DK points twice. The Astros are projected for a slate-low 3.9 runs - Glasnow is worth the pay-up tonight.
Julio Urias - SP, LAD vs ATL ($7,800)
There's not much to love about the rest of the pitching options, but it's usually a safe call to select the pitcher on the team that's the biggest favorite on the slate. The Dodgers are projected for 5.9 runs (Braves 4.3 runs) and the Dodgers are in desperation-mode to win this game, which gives Urias decent win-equity. However, that does mean he'll likely have a short leash, and they've shown zero hesitancy to pull him (and other starters) early if the situation calls for it. So there is significant risk here. That being said, he holds the best ERA on the slate (3.49), doesn't give up homers (0.9 HR/9), and has a small speck of strikeout ability (19.8% K%). Ozuna, Acuna, and Freeman are the hitters to worry about here, but the rest of the lineup has been unimposing against LHP and d'Arnaud, Albies, and Swanson hold a .232 wOBA or worse against southpaws this year. They also strike out a lot against LHP with five starters holding a 29% K% or higher this season.
Other options: Will Smith (ATL vs LAD) $4,000 or whichever reliever you believe gets the most IP
DraftKings DFS Infielders
Will Smith - C, LAD vs ATL ($4,800)
Smith is the best catcher option on the board and he looks especially good today as he holds a 1.040 OPS, .350 ISO, and .427 wOBA against RHP this season. He should continue to slot in the middle of the order and that has value as the Dodgers have a high 5.9 run implied total against the inexperienced Kyle Wright.
Brandon Lowe - 2B, TB vs HOU ($4,100)
We keep hearing the announcers saying "Eventually, this guy will start hitting like he did in the regular season." While it's easy to agree with that due to the law of averages and how statistics work, we're all still waiting. He went hitless last night to bring his playoff slash line to .077/.077/.077. That's about as ugly as it gets. I'm going right back to the well as he's the cheapest 2B on the board and has some great RHP splits with a .238 ISO and .355 wOBA. An argument can be made for Chris Taylor, but he'll likely hit in the ninth spot and is actually more expensive than Lowe.
Willy Adames - SS, TB vs HOU ($3,300)
Adames isn't the most exciting play in the world, but we have to work with what we have at the position and pick our spots. Correa is facing Glasnow, Swanson has the worst handedness splits for any projected starter today (outside of Albies), and selecting Corey Seager is going to handicap you at every other position (though he looks great today). Adames hit a decent .259/.332/.481 with a .222 ISO, .342 wOBA, eight homers, 23 RBI, 29 runs scored, and two steals during the regular season, but he has struggled so far in the playoffs. He hits RHP much better and while Greinke is a decent pitcher, he has struggled with his most frequent pitch, the fastball. He has allowed a .325 average (.306 xBA), .542 SLG (.580 xSLG), and .381 wOBA (.374 xwOBA) with his fastball this year, and it just so happens that Adames posted a .359 wOBA and five homers off the pitch in 2020.
Other options: Corey Seager (LAD vs ATL) $5,200, Yuli Gurriel (HOU vs TB) $2,900, Ji-Man Choi (TB vs HOU) $3,400
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Marcell Ozuna - OF, ATL vs LAD ($4,200)
Ozuna just continues to mash, but he's still just the seventh-highest salaried outfielder in the DraftKings player pool. He's behind AJ Pollock. If that doesn't scream "value," I don't know what does. He has the best handedness splits for any hitter today with an insane .356/.463/.867 slash line against LHP this season. It's a small-ish sample size of just 54 plate appearances, but he also put up a .511 ISO and .527 wOBA against southpaws this season, which honestly seems like a typo or an error in the database. His exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and barrel rate were all in the top sixth percentile in the MLB this season. Urias throws his four-seamer 55.9% of the time and Ozuna posted a .403 AVG, .783 SLG, and .515 wOBA against the pitch this season.
Randy Arozarena - OF, TB vs HOU ($4,500)
I'm just going to keep recommending this guy until he proves me wrong - and he hasn't yet. He's hitting .337 with 10 homers, 15 RBI, and a 1.113 OPS since being called up to the majors. He has a .250 ISO and .349 wOBA against RHP and while he does have a high 37.7% K% against them this year, veteran Zack Greinke shouldn't be an imposing matchup for this unfazed prospect. I'm putting my money on Randy 100 times out of 100. He has a 14% barrel rate...his Stacast comparison? Nelson Cruz. *mind-blown emoji*
Cristian Pache - OF, ATL vs LAD ($2,000)
Pache, a 21-year-old, had four at-bats during the regular season with the Braves. He's the Braves number one prospect and the 14th-best prospect in the MLB, according to MLB Pipeline. He has good power and speed, though it obviously remains to be seen if (or how quickly) his skills will translate to the big leagues. He hit 1-for-5 with a run scored and an RBI in his start last night and he's a very good source of value at the DraftKings minimum again tonight.
Other options: Manuel Margot (TB vs HOU) $3,000, Austin Meadows (TB vs HOU) $3,400, Mookie Betts (LAD vs ATL) $5,700, Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL vs LAD) $5,000
DraftKings DFS Stacks
The Dodgers. They have the highest implied total against Kyle Wright and only have two players in their projected lineup with an ISO lower than .220 against RHP. Everyone is in play - the only players I'd curb exposure to are Joc Pederson and Max Muncy. The Rays are my other favorite stack against Greinke and company, while the Braves (top hitters only) could make for an intriguing contrarian stack as well. Springer, Brantley, and Tucker would be my targets if making leverage stacks against the chalky Glasnow.
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Good luck in your DFS contests and make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @kringstad19!
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