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Detroit Lions running back D'Andre Swift is one of the top rookie RBs to watch in fantasy football. Frank Dyevoich evaluates Swift's fantasy value both in dynasty and redraft ahead of the 2020 NFL season.
The Detroit Lions have been looking for a franchise running back since the days of the greatest pure runner of all time, Barry Sanders. Since Sanders retired after the 1998 season, the Lions have only had three players surpass 1,000 yards rushing, the last of which was Reggie Bush in 2013. In fact, since they drafted Matthew Stafford, the Lions have never finished better than 17th in rush yards per game. Desperate to find its next star RB, the Lions ignored needs on defense and drafted D'Andre Swift out of Georgia with pick 35.
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Welcome to Detroit, @DAndreSwift. #NFLDraft ? #OnePride pic.twitter.com/3Cs3CDVruy
Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!— Detroit Lions (@Lions) April 24, 2020
Swift was the number one running back prospect according to most analysts and scouts, so the Lions were elated to steal him in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The problem for fantasy football owners is that Swift is going to share the backfield with Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson for at least the next season or two, so Lions' fans and fantasy football owners alike are going to have to wait for his eventual breakout.
Profile
Team: Detroit Lions
College: Georgia
Height/Weight/40-yard dash: 5'8”, 212 lbs, 4.48 seconds (83rd percentile)
NFL Draft Selection: Round 2, Pick 9
Stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com
College Career
Swift was relegated to a reserve role in his freshmen year at Georgia because he was behind current NFL stars Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, but he still made the most of his touches. He ran for 618 yards on only 81 attempts (7.6 yards per carry), and he added 153 yards through the air on 17 receptions (9.0 yards per reception) for combined four touchdowns. After he impressed with his minimal touches, Swift became the starter for the Bulldogs in his sophomore season, though he shared that role with Elijah Holyfield.
D'Andre Swift's five highest-graded plays as a Georgia Bulldog?pic.twitter.com/vXw2jh47tq
— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 29, 2020
It did not take long to realize that Swift was the best running back on the team by a wide margin. He and Holyfield both averaged 6.4 yards per carry, but Swift had 13 total touchdowns to Holyfield's seven, and he dominated the receiving game with 32 receptions to Holyfield's five. He finished his sophomore season with 1,346 yards from scrimmage. In his final season, Swift earned the honor of First-Team All-SEC with 1,218 rushing yards (6.2 yards per carry) and seven touchdowns, and 24 receptions for 316 yards and one more touchdown through the air. The numbers on paper may not seem too impressive, but he accomplished this production in the SEC, facing some of the nation's toughest defenses. In fact, over the last two seasons with Swift starting, the Georgia Bulldogs faced defenses that were ranked inside the top-40 57% of the time. Pro Football Focus also highlighted just how impressive Swift's career was at Georgia:
RB D'Andre Swift has earned an 80.0+ OVR grade in all 3 seasons
Since 2017, Swift ranks in the Top 25 in...
Yards Per Route Run
Passer Rating When Targeted
Explosive Rec.
Missed Tackles Forced After the Catch
Yards Per Carry
Yards After Contact/Att.
1st Down/TD % on Rushes— PFF DET Lions (@PFF_Lions) April 24, 2020
Scouting Report
Chart from playerfrofiler.com
D'Andre Swift projects as a three-down running back right out of the gate. Already atop team's draft board, Swift improved his stock at the NFL Combine when he ran an impressive 4.48 seconds in the 40-yard dash and leapt 35.5 inches in the vertical jump, but did not participate in any of the other drills.
D’Andre Swift runs a 4.49!???
pic.twitter.com/JErG1tVK8U— PFF (@PFF) February 29, 2020
We have seen that Swift had impressive numbers in the SEC and he performed admirably at the NFL Combine drills he chose to participate in, but how will his skill's translate to the NFL? As a runner, Swift is more finesse than power. He will juke defenders, spin out of tackles, hurdle defenders coming in low, and maintain his balance at awkward angles. He is not a burner, but his block timing and ability to read and set up defenders are elite, enabling him to routinely produce chunk plays. He also has elite burst, among the best in this class, going from a dead stop to top speed in very few steps, reminiscent of the running style of Le'Veon Bell.
D’Andre Swift has bounce ?
(via @CBSSports)pic.twitter.com/ONtUy91S6F
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 22, 2019
His elite change of direction and lateral agility provide him with excellent field and spatial awareness at the second level, easily setting up defensive backs and committing his upper body one way to fool defenders before his lower body cuts change direction. Swift also has a signature move, a devastating plant foot that his high school coach called his dead leg. That's probably because if you are an incoming defender and you bite on his plant foot, you're dead. This devastating cut makes him a routine ankle breaker in the open field. In this clip, you see Swift execute his dead leg on two defenders (#7 and #41) as they line him up and tackle the air.
D'Andre Swift, making everyone miss. pic.twitter.com/xYr2dQus3J
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 3, 2018
Swift is also able to adjust on the fly based on defenders' pursuit angles. He makes sharp but fluid cuts without losing any momentum, and one of his best traits is his ability to adjust his speed, slowing down to avoid over pursuing defenders and hitting the gas just as defenders come into his frame. The area where Swift excels over the other running backs in this class is his prowess in the receiving game. Other than Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Swift is without a doubt the best receiving back in this class. He can run a diverse route tree and he has very sticky hands as evidenced by only three drops on his 73 receptions in his college career, none of which came in 2019. Here is a play where Swift takes a simple screen pass to the house.
D'Andre Swift has one speed: FAST ⚡ pic.twitter.com/PnZDcJKdKt
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 7, 2018
While he has all the tools an NFL team could want in a running back, he does have some weaknesses that need to be corrected. He is not an elite pile mover and his burst to the outside is middle of the road. He also dances a little too much behind the line of scrimmage instead of taking the four-yard gain that is in front of him.
The biggest thing he needs to work on in order to be successful at the next level is his ability to sell his runs to the opposite gap in order to move the linebackers and open the primary gap. Far too often he was beaten to his spot and lost yardage by telegraphing his lane. Durability is the second biggest concern for Swift in the NFL. He didn't miss any time, but always seemed to be dealing with nagging injuries and was sidelined during big games.
History of Running Backs in Detroit
Heading into the NFL Draft, Swift was pretty much a consensus to be the first pick in rookie drafts. However, the excitement turned to frustration as the Detroit Lions selected him in the second round. The Detroit backfield has been an absolute dumpster fire for fantasy football since the retirement of the great Barry Sanders. After Sanders averaged 1,527 yards and 10 touchdowns per season, the best season afterward came from James Stewart in 2000, where he had 1,184 yards and 10 touchdowns. Other than Stewart, no Lions' running back has surpassed 1,150 yards on the ground and reached 10 touchdowns since Sanders.
Even Reggie Bush barely eclipsed 1,000 yards and had only four rushing touchdowns in 2013. Even worse, over the same time-span, the Lions have never finished inside the top-half of the league in rushing. General manager Bob Quinn hopes to change that narrative with the selection of Swift, telling the media after day one of the NFL Draft "going to bed last night, he was the guy that was on my mind the most."
Detroit Lions GM Bob Quinn was dreaming about D'Andre Swift, plus more NFL draft analysis https://t.co/lIwlweiZG8 via @freep
— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) April 25, 2020
The Lions backfield has been one of the worst in the NFL for fantasy over the last two decades. Whether it was Mikel LeShoure, Jahvid Best, Kevin Smith, Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount, or Ameer Abdullah, they all let fantasy owners down. The hiring of Matt Patrica as head coach had us hoping for an efficient run game since he came from the Bill Belichick coaching tree, but so far it has been the same old story in Detroit. In 2018, the Lions put an emphasis on running the ball when the team moved up in the NFL Draft to select Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson. Johnson averaged 5.7 yards per touch in his rookie season and looked to be the future in Detroit, until it became very clear that he can not handle a full workload without getting injured.
Last offseason, the Lions made another strong statement towards committing to the run game when the team hired Darrell Bevell to be the new offensive coordinator. Bevell was the former offensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks from 2011-2018 where he led them to a top-four rushing finish in five out his seven seasons with the team, including two first place finishes in 2014 and 2018. If anyone can make the Lions an efficient rushing team, it's Bevell.
2020 Outlook
In Patricia's first year as head coach, he brought the Lions from dead last in rushing in 2017 to 23rd in 2018. He followed that up with a 21st place finish last year. Now with Bevell on staff calling plays and the addition of Swift to the backfield, expect the Lions to finish in the 13th to 18th range if the defense can keep them in games and the offensive line can hold up. Last season, the Lions finished as the 11th best offensive line according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), but their right guard Graham Glasgow and right tackle Rick Wagner both left in free agency. As a result, PFF has ranked the unit as the 16th best offensive line heading into 2020. The core of the line is locked in as left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow are among the most consistent players at their respective positions, and left guard Joe Dahl had an up and down season in his first year as a full-time starter, but should improve in year two. However, the right side of the line could be the Achilles heal for the Lions in 2020 as right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai struggled in pass protection last year, and the team will likely have to rely on third-round rookie Jonah Jackson out of Ohio State to be their right guard.
D'Andre Swift has all the makings of an elite featured running back in the NFL, however fantasy owners are going to have to wait for him to truly breakout. The Detroit Lions currently have Kerryon Johnson and former Alabama running back Bo Scarborough on the team, along with fantasy disappointment and free-agent acquisition budget (FAAB) disaster Ty Johnson. While Scarborough is mainly a depth player, Kerryon Johnson should lead this backfield in 2020 with Swift serving as the change-of-pace and passing-down back.
Swift should have an immediate role in the lions' offense to start the season, though he probably will not see many carries and should mainly operate in the receiving game. However, that is not necessarily a bad thing for fantasy football. The Lions' most productive receiving running back in recent years has been Theo Riddick, and we saw him get over 50 receptions in four straight years from 2015-2018 (89 targets per season), including a career high 80 receptions in 2015 which was the second most by a running back that year. Some of his success in the passing game was due to coaching, but most of it was due to Stafford's love for checking down to his running backs. Well, Stafford is still under center and there is no question that Swift is infinitely more talented than Riddick. If he were to have at least 50 receptions, he should easily finish as a top-25 RB in PPR and be a stream-able RB2 for your fantasy squad.
That all sounds well and good, but there is one very important factor to Swift's fantasy success that we have not discussed yet, the health of Kerryon Johnson, or the lack thereof. Johnson was drafted to be the next great running back for the Lions, and he has looked excellent when he has been on the field, but that has been few and far between. In his rookie year, Johnson missed six games with a sprained knee, and last year, he missed eight games with a torn meniscus. If the Lions had any confidence that Johnson could stay healthy and lead their backfield, the team would not have drafted Swift at the top of the second round with so many high-caliber defensive prospects still on the board. If Johnson were to miss time, which is likely, Swift would take over as the featured running back and command 20-25 touches per game. If this were to happen, Swift would be a fantasy rock-star.
The ideal situation for the Lions and fantasy owners alike is for Johnson and Swift to form a diesel one-two punch, similar to how the Saints used Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara in 2017 and 2018. Swift is far superior to Johnson in the passing game in both catching and route running, so he should command all of the receiving work right out of the gate whereas Johnson is best used as the early-downs and goal-line running back. A safe projection would be for Johnson to see 14-16 carries per game and for Swift to see between five to ten carries and six to eight targets per game. Swift is currently being drafted as the RB24 in ADP in redraft leagues, and he should pay off as a high-end flex option. Drafting Swift in redraft leagues would be slightly more appealing if he were going as the RB30, but the risk is worth it because if Johnson were to get get hurt, Swift would instantly be an every week RB1.
Dynasty Outlook
While Swift is nothing more than a low-end RB2 with upside in redraft leagues this year, he is a top-five pick in rookie drafts everywhere, usually taken after Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, J.K. Dobbins, and sometimes Cam Akers. However, before the NFL Draft, Swift was the consensus RB1 in rookie drafts, so dynasty owners would be wise to take advantage of his discount due to landing with the Lions because in two years he could be a perennial first-round pick in all formats. Swift has the talent and the skills to be an elite workhorse running back in the NFL and Kerryon Johnson's rookie contract is up after the 2021 season. Unless he stays healthy and puts up 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, the Lions will likely let Johnson walk and turn the reigns over to Swift in 2022. Dynasty owners who aren't contending for a championship this year should be thrilled to come away with Swift in their rookie drafts. Owners who are rebuilding should also try and shop some of their established veterans to a contending team in exchange for Swift. Chris Carson, Le'Veon Bell and Melvin Gordon should all have extremely meaningful roles and contribute heavily to the success of their dynasty owners this year, but come 2022 they will be washed up veterans and Swift will be ready to light the league on fire. Play chess, not checkers.
In startup drafts, Swift is currently going in the ninth-round range as RB32 in ADP, shortly after injury-plagued veterans like Todd Gurley and David Johnson. This is completely crazy. Swift has the potential to be what Le'Veon Bell was for the Steelers when he gets the nod as the full-time starter, yet he is being drafted four rounds later than guys like Kareem Hunt, Phillip Lindsay, and even Kerryon Johnson. Given his age and his upside, he should even be going ahead of guys like the aforementioned Chris Carson and Melvin Gordon. The value on Swift right now is at an all-time low and dynasty owners would be wise to capitalize on it because once we see him shred the Packers' linebackers and make the Bears' defensive backs looks silly trying to square him up, all bets are off.
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