RADIO
Dom evaluates the fantasy football value of skill position players (RB, WR, TE) with rookie QB Justin Fields starting. Are players like Allen Robinson going to be busts or are they strong buy-low candidates?
Some things are known. The Adam Gase curse is real. Some things will never be known. What came first, the chicken or the egg? And some things are uncertain. Is Matt Nagy a good coach and how does this affect what we can expect from Justin Fields for the rest of 2021?
We are not scientists but we can try to work on the last question ourselves. The common sentiment in Chicago and with Bears fans is that Nagy is not a good coach. While I tend to agree, it does not help having a General Manager in Ryan Pace who has done everything possible to torpedo the franchise from an on-field aspect. For Bears fans, I hope he and Nagy are both gone before 2022.
So, what about this season though? How will rookie Justin Fields starting change the directory of the skill players in Chicago?
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The Team
The Bears have never been a high-power offense. In their long and storied history, they have never had a 4,000-yard quarterback. The best thing you can say about them in the last 40 years is that they created the iconic Super Bowl Shuffle. This is a low brag for one of the most historic franchises in sports.
There are a few main players to speak of when we are worried about their production. A running back, two receivers and a tight end. So, let us look at each of them and what the rest of the 2021 season may hold for them and their fantasy football managers.
David Montgomery
Let us be honest. Whether he takes a hit or not, no one is dropping David Montgomery. Along with Allen Robinson, Montgomery is the glue that will hold the team together through the tough sledding ahead. On top of this, at the rate injuries occur in the NFL, at the RB position especially, you do not drop anyone at the position.
Just this week we witnessed Christian McCaffrey get hurt yet again and Dalvin Cook miss a game due to injury. Although Alexander Mattison filled in great for Cook with over 170 all-purpose yards, we do not know what to expect on a weekly basis from backups. They are backups for a reason.
Montgomery has cemented himself as the starter in Chicago. A team which sees themselves as a running team. With Fields behind center and a suspect offensive line, the ability for Fields to dump down to the likes of David Montgomery and Cole Kmet will become of vital importance.
While Fields does not help Montgomery from a value standpoint, he certainly does not hurt him either. He will continue to be the man getting the ball behind the quarterback and with it being Fields instead of Andy Dalton, he might even get a reception or two after the quarterback scrambles himself out of a sack. While no longer having top-eight RB potential, Montgomery is still squarely in play as an RB1 for fantasy. If you got him as your second RB in the draft, you will be more than happy with his production moving ahead.
Darnell Mooney
Mooney was a darling of fantasy Twitter this off-season. He was set to be the breakout in the Bears offense. This excitement only increased when the team traded Anthony Miller to the Texans. Thus far, the hype surrounding him has not been returned by his play.
In three games, Mooney has 12 receptions and 101 yards with no touchdowns. Although talented enough to get downfield, Dalton did not have the arm and Fields the time to be able to find him for any deep shots. With Allen Robinson being the undisputed number one option in the passing game, Mooney is relegated to second fiddle. He must do more with less. With the Bears being not good this year, the less he must deal with might just be too little to make a dent on your fantasy roster.
While the thought process in drafting him in your late rounds was sound, circumstances change and his has done so dramatically. You may not want to drop him as injuries do occur and this could make him valuable. But unless this happens, Mooney may have just moved from being a wide receiver three on your starting roster to a spot on your bench with an occasional showing in your flex position. This week when the Bears take on the hapless Lions.
Allen Robinson
Holy bad luck, Batman. This is all you can say for the career of Allen Robinson.
There have been few wide receivers as talented as Allen Robinson who have been saddled their entire careers with bad quarterback play. It continues this season as Robinson has only managed 10 receptions and 86 yards through three games of the season. But he is still the best receiver on the Bears team and a top 10 receiver in the NFL. Whether or not Justin Fields can get him the ball and show this talent off is another story entirely.
With Fields entering the mix at quarterback, the Bears will look to keep things simple for him. This means a lot of running plays and short throws. While this means good things for Montgomery and likely Cole Kmet, it could mean fantasy disaster for others on the team. And of course, their managers.
Should matt Nagy and the staff start showing confidence in Fields, and after six completions and nine sacks in his first start, how could you not, Robinson will be fine. But it will be a wait and see gameplan for now to see if this happens.
The next few weeks will be rough for Robinson owners. You drafted him as your receiver one or two. This means you will not have the option to sit him. So, he will be in your starting lineup. He may also hurt your chances of winning. Against Detroit this week, we could get a glimpse of what to expect from him. The Lions play hard, but they are bad defensively. If Robinson and Fields can use this deficiency to build a connection, it could last the rest of the season. If they realize one of them went to Penn State and the other one went to Ohio State, the connection may be lost and so might Robinson’s fantasy value.
Robinson is no longer a top 10 wide receiver for fantasy purposes. Although usually consistent and paced for 150 targets, this is not going to be the case in 2021. In what might be the last season for him in Chicago, Robinson is set to have the worst full season of his career. Let us just hope he remains a wide receiver two and does not completely bottom out.
Cole Kmet
Along with David Montgomery, Kmet may see the least amount of impact when it comes to value.
At the start of the season, Kmet was seen as nothing more than a streaming tight end. Someone to grab late in drafts if unable to get one of the big three or four early. He is still seen in this light with Fields at the quarterback position. With this said, his value may increase.
As mentioned with Montgomery, the easiest thing for rookie quarterbacks to do is find the running back and the tight end.
As he takes the starting tight end role from Jimmy Graham this season, his snap share has grown to a respectable 79% on the season. At 6’6 and 260 pounds he is the huge target needed in the red zone for the Bears. He will continue to take over this role as Graham is phased out.
Although the Bears offense will be limited, when the time for them to score comes in the red zone, Kmet will be a major component of what they try to do. This means he could end up as a top 10 tight end for the rest of the season. Not spectacular but also not as bad as it could be. Playing matchups is important when it comes to the one-off positions like tight end and quarterback. Kmet can be unbelievably valuable in this type of roulette game. He could also make an attractive low-priced option in daily fantasy games. Do not expect too much from him. Like the rest of the Bears roster, he is going to be playing with a rookie. But unlike the rest of the roster, it may be a good thing for him.
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