Rest of Season Starting Pitcher Rankings (May Update)

The calendar's turned to May and we're heading out to the mound for a Rest-of-Season update of our mixed rankings analysis. RotoBaller writers Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel want you to crush the competition and know that rankings can't end on draft day. Check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard for the latest and greatest ranks at any time.

Starting pitching is necessary to claim a title in most leagues, but you can take many routes to get there. Those who invested in aces may be hurting early, but lots of them are simply suffering from noise. Whether you're hunting insight on whether to abandon ship on some top arms or seeking out lower-owned hurlers to buy into, we've got you covered here with ranks that go 175 arms deep.

Without any more delay, let's break down the 2019 starting pitcher rest-of-season rankings for May.

 

Starting Pitcher Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (May)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rank	Tier	Player	Position	Nick	Pierre	Bill	Scott
1	1	Max Scherzer	SP	9	10	5	21
2	1	Justin Verlander	SP	12	15	17	11
3	1	Jacob deGrom	SP	10	19	9	23
4	1	Trevor Bauer	SP	14	14	18	17
5	1	Gerrit Cole	SP	15	21	22	13
6	2	Chris Sale	SP	32	31	16	25
7	2	Blake Snell	SP	19	22	35	30
8	2	Carlos Carrasco	SP	31	54	32	32
9	2	Aaron Nola	SP	54	33	34	43
10	2	Jose Berrios	SP	45	27	66	35
11	2	Patrick Corbin	SP	35	38	38	71
12	2	Noah Syndergaard	SP	48	48	39	49
13	3	Clayton Kershaw	SP	42	36	93	33
14	3	Zack Greinke	SP	47	71	51	42
15	3	Walker Buehler	SP	44	69	43	59
16	3	James Paxton	SP	66	62	45	52
17	3	Stephen Strasburg	SP	62	65	50	50
18	3	Luis Castillo	SP	67	82	62	48
19	4	Jack Flaherty	SP	63	80	55	94
20	4	German Marquez	SP	79	86	77	75
21	4	Tyler Glasnow	SP	64	52	85	138
22	4	David Price	SP	86	77	88	90
23	4	Zack Wheeler	SP	97	112	65	84
24	4	Jameson Taillon	SP	161	64	64	73
25	4	Madison Bumgarner	SP	113	114	104	70
26	4	Charlie Morton	SP	82	99	133	95
27	4	Masahiro Tanaka	SP	125	96	106	113
28	4	Robbie Ray	SP	110	101	139	106
29	5	Caleb Smith	SP	114	122	148	87
30	5	Chris Paddack	SP	121	141	111	127
31	5	Mike Foltynewicz	SP	129	129	128	117
32	5	Matthew Boyd	SP	120	139	153	128
33	5	Rich Hill	SP	103	142	136	161
34	5	Chris Archer	SP	144	118	155	134
35	5	Mike Clevinger	SP	154	211	54	148
36	5	Cole Hamels	SP	147	127	167	130
37	5	Kyle Hendricks	SP	169	124	126	176
38	5	Hyun-Jin Ryu	SP	131	168	170	133
39	5	Joe Musgrove	SP	146	149	183	129
40	5	Collin McHugh	SP	151	157	161	139
41	5	Shane Bieber	SP	155	103	192	159
42	6	J.A. Happ	SP	213	147	118	140
43	6	Yu Darvish	SP	166	144	131	187
44	6	Mike Soroka	SP	138	164	200	137
45	6	Kenta Maeda	SP	149	135	173	189
46	6	Jose Quintana	SP	135	169	143	209
47	6	Domingo German	SP	136	180	165	198
48	6	Eduardo Rodriguez	SP	190	121	169	212
49	6	Miles Mikolas	SP	244	133	233	152
50	6	Steven Matz	SP	254	178	217	135
51	6	Sonny Gray	SP	172	198	196	221
52	6	Trevor Williams	SP	262	183	199	149
53	6	Luke Weaver	SP	196	181	185	238
54	6	Max Fried	SP	184	209	214	200
55	6	Jon Gray	SP	222	158	223	214
56	7	Kyle Freeland	SP	253	190	163	241
57	7	Luis Severino	SP	214	240	212	201
58	7	Jake Arrieta	SP	255	200	194	267
59	7	Jon Lester	SP	257	285	175	207
60	7	Pablo Lopez	SP	237	226	231	#N/A
61	7	Rick Porcello	SP	234	268	144	283
62	7	Brad Peacock	RP/SP	311	222	235	171
63	7	Joey Lucchesi	SP	247	173	268	255
64	7	Kevin Gausman	SP	193	250	267	234
65	7	Marco Gonzales	SP	249	277	145	282
66	7	Mike Minor	SP	261	182	298	219
67	7	Jake Odorizzi	SP	336	197	218	#N/A
68	7	Martin Perez	SP	226	#N/A	276	#N/A
69	8	Zach Eflin	SP	370	207	230	220
70	8	Marcus Stroman	SP	366	219	197	249
71	8	Yusei Kikuchi	SP	296	186	310	266
72	8	Tyler Skaggs	SP	260	282	240	284
73	8	John Gant	SP	252	#N/A	283	#N/A
74	8	Corey Kluber	SP	390	237	258	188
75	8	Jerad Eickhoff	SP	292	247	#N/A	#N/A
76	8	Ross Stripling	SP	356	292	168	277
77	8	Jordan Lyles	SP	318	253	252	#N/A
78	8	Anthony DeSclafani	SP	300	#N/A	256	#N/A
79	8	Anibal Sanchez	SP	331	324	179	#N/A
80	8	Andrew Heaney	SP	264	345	251	275
81	8	Brandon Woodruff	SP	267	289	308	#N/A
82	8	Frankie Montas	SP/RP	302	349	#N/A	215
83	9	Reynaldo Lopez	SP	324	300	284	250
84	9	Matt Strahm	RP/SP	285	228	358	#N/A
85	9	Vince Velasquez	SP	385	204	288	#N/A
86	9	Spencer Turnbull	SP	323	232	367	268
87	9	Carlos Rodon	SP	#N/A	210	415	269
88	9	Jimmy Nelson	SP	281	311	315	#N/A
89	9	Jeff Samardzija	SP	378	342	246	252
90	10	Alex Wood	SP	314	351	262	#N/A
91	10	Merrill Kelly	SP	271	354	302	#N/A
92	10	Yonny Chirinos	SP	412	212	#N/A	#N/A
93	10	Julio Urias	SP	360	290	317	#N/A
94	10	Diego Castillo	RP/SP	227	326	450	287
95	10	Dereck Rodriguez	SP	364	333	281	#N/A
96	10	Kyle Gibson	SP	319	338	326	#N/A
97	10	Michael Wacha	SP	381	298	304	#N/A
98	10	Nathan Eovaldi	SP	462	258	266	#N/A
99	10	Michael Pineda	SP	309	293	411	#N/A
100	10	Carlos Martinez	SP/RP	445	294	282	#N/A
101	10	Forrest Whitley	SP	353	278	399	#N/A
102	10	Trevor Richards	SP	310	337	389	#N/A
103	11	Aaron Sanchez	SP	368	346	331	#N/A
104	11	Jhoulys Chacin	SP	332	376	338	#N/A
105	11	Jesus Luzardo	SP	250	440	371	#N/A
106	11	CC Sabathia	SP	362	401	303	#N/A
107	11	Lucas Giolito	SP	298	362	419	#N/A
108	11	Derek Holland	SP	258	480	349	#N/A
109	11	Dallas Keuchel	SP	328	387	373	#N/A
110	11	Gio Gonzalez	SP	468	260	#N/A	#N/A
111	11	Nick Margevicius	SP	350	365	386	#N/A
112	11	Brad Keller	SP	313	430	359	#N/A
113	11	Corbin Burnes	SP/RP	406	325	374	#N/A
114	11	Nick Pivetta	SP	474	456	178	#N/A
115	11	Lance Lynn	SP	457	#N/A	289	#N/A
116	11	Drew Pomeranz	SP	441	378	314	#N/A
117	11	John Means	SP/RP	380	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
118	11	Danny Duffy	SP	423	327	403	#N/A
119	11	Jose Urena	SP	392	#N/A	385	#N/A
120	11	Alex Reyes	SP/RP	483	370	321	#N/A
121	11	Ian Kennedy	SP	397	479	300	#N/A
122	12	Clay Buchholz	SP	416	431	347	#N/A
123	12	Sandy Alcantara	SP	377	388	434	#N/A
124	12	Josh James	SP	430	371	405	#N/A
125	12	Jakob Junis	SP	393	377	447	#N/A
126	12	Dylan Bundy	SP	428	442	352	#N/A
127	12	Freddy Peralta	SP	431	323	479	#N/A
128	12	Mike Fiers	SP	422	483	334	#N/A
129	12	Tyler Mahle	SP	415	404	428	#N/A
130	12	Julio Teheran	SP	451	392	408	#N/A
131	12	Trevor Cahill	SP	386	488	391	#N/A
132	12	Mitch Keller	SP	448	#N/A	397	#N/A
133	12	Wei-Yin Chen	SP	#N/A	#N/A	423	#N/A
134	12	Robert Stephenson	SP	424	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
135	12	Zach Davies	SP	382	420	473	#N/A
136	12	Sam Gaviglio	SP/RP	425	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
137	12	Amir Garrett	SP	481	399	398	#N/A
138	13	Seth Lugo	SP/RP	484	#N/A	372	#N/A
139	13	Sean Newcomb	SP	#N/A	444	414	#N/A
140	13	Jonathan Loaisiga	SP	469	484	340	#N/A
141	13	Drew Smyly	SP	#N/A	433	#N/A	#N/A
142	13	Zack Godley	SP	#N/A	455	413	#N/A
143	13	Felix Hernandez	SP	434	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
144	13	Tyler Anderson	SP	#N/A	#N/A	435	#N/A
145	13	Wade Miley	SP	387	498	424	#N/A
146	13	Marco Estrada	SP	#N/A	#N/A	439	#N/A
147	13	Griffin Canning	SP	439	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
148	13	Felix Pena	RP/SP	438	#N/A	451	#N/A
149	13	Chase Anderson	SP	399	482	456	#N/A
150	13	Tanner Roark	SP	447	#N/A	457	#N/A
151	13	Taijuan Walker	SP	479	426	#N/A	#N/A
152	13	Jon Duplantier	SP	482	423	#N/A	#N/A
153	13	Robbie Erlin	SP	#N/A	#N/A	453	#N/A
154	13	Mike Leake	SP	#N/A	#N/A	454	#N/A
155	13	Chris Devenski	SP/RP	#N/A	428	492	#N/A
156	13	Dinelson Lamet	SP	461	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
157	13	Jason Vargas	SP	#N/A	#N/A	461	#N/A
158	13	Wily Peralta	SP/RP	#N/A	425	498	#N/A
159	14	Adam Conley	SP/RP	420	#N/A	510	#N/A
160	14	Justus Sheffield	SP	#N/A	406	531	#N/A
161	14	Jalen Beeks	SP	470	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
162	14	Framber Valdez	SP	497	#N/A	459	#N/A
163	14	Sean Manaea	SP	480	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
164	14	Brent Honeywell Jr.	SP	488	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
165	14	Matt Harvey	SP	466	#N/A	520	#N/A
166	14	Antonio Senzatela	SP	494	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
167	14	Adam Wainwright	SP	440	#N/A	559	#N/A
168	14	Touki Toussaint	SP	463	487	550	#N/A
169	14	Wade LeBlanc	SP	489	#N/A	521	#N/A
170	14	Robert Gsellman	SP/RP	#N/A	500	525	#N/A
171	14	Jaime Barria	SP	498	485	557	#N/A
172	14	A.J. Puk	SP	464	#N/A	572	#N/A
173	14	Tyson Ross	SP	#N/A	#N/A	518	#N/A
174	14	Kyle Wright	SP	493	#N/A	547	#N/A
175	14	Ivan Nova	SP	#N/A	#N/A	533	#N/A
176	14	Eric Lauer	SP	495	#N/A	574	#N/A
177	14	Dylan Floro	SP/RP	#N/A	#N/A	541	#N/A
178	14	Luiz Gohara	SP	#N/A	#N/A	543	#N/A
179	14	Jeremy Hellickson	SP	#N/A	#N/A	551	#N/A
180	14	Alex Cobb	SP	#N/A	#N/A	554	#N/A

 

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

Being a top-tier pitcher has led to mixed results thus far, but these five arms still demand respect and should be viewed as true SP1’s. Scherzer is battling ridiculously poor luck despite gains in his strikeout rate and a trimmed walk rate for beautiful peripherals. Verlander continues to stave off Father Time and deliver quality starts on command. Some of deGrom’s turbulence can be blamed on injury, yet he still has 49 strikeouts in 32 innings. If healthy, he’s a pitching god. Bauer and Cole are both putting any doubts of being a one-year wonder to bed.

Tier Two

Sale’s April sent off the loudest of alarms, as reduced velocity and shoddy command led to horrid results and an admission that he’d “never felt so lost on the mound.” I remain cautious, but he’s started to look better lately and his ceiling remains the No. 1 pitcher in baseball.

Carrasco and Nola also own cold starts, though Carrasco is one of the better buy-lows out there. The 5.60 ERA/1.33 WHIP obscure a beautiful 2.94 SIERA -- better than 2018’s 3.03 mark -- and the 50 strikeouts in 35 ⅓ IP (33.1% K rate) point to a 250-strikeout season. Compare that to Nola, whose SIERA has risen from 3.40 in ‘18 to 4.40 in ‘19. Nola’s poor 8.3% swinging-strike rate is way down from 2018’s 12.4% clip and mixed with more walks and more homers for a heartbeat-inducing 1.61 WHIP and average 22.8% strikeout rate. We know he’s got more in the tank, but you can see I’m the low man here.

Tier Three

Syndergaard reminded everyone of his godlike talent by twirling a complete-game shutout and making his own offense with a solo homer. Still more thrower than refined pitcher, Thor is still a high-end SP2 with the raw ability to one day become more. Kershaw is healthy now and can be an anchor for as long as health holds, decreased velocity and all. Greinke remains one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, especially with Chase Field’s humidor in tow.

Paxton’s ranking came as the injury news was developing and he’s not supposed to miss more than a few turns, so I still buy the double-digit strikeout performances that we saw in late April. Castillo continues to ascend the ranks, though his walk rate sits around 10% and he entered May with a mere 50% first-strike rate. He leads the league in pitching from behind in the count, something that’s tough to bank on moving forward. Obviously, I (and we) still view him as a stud but don’t be surprised as that 1.97 ERA creeps towards the 3.52 SIERA.

 

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

I have Flaherty and Glasnow ranked ahead of Castillo, for instance. Not by much, but I like that Flaherty has brought his walk rate down from 9.6% in ‘18 to 6.5% here while increased his swinging-strike rate by a hair (13.4% to 13.6%). The longball has done him dirty thus far, taking a career trend and injecting steroids into it with the ‘19 HR surge, but the 3.42 SIERA has me buying in long-term.

And Glasnow, well he’s just a Georgia peach, ain’t he? Despite this being the year of hard contact, Statcast grades him with a 29.9% hard-hit rate yielded after that sat at 38.2% in ‘18. Joining that is a mere 4.4% walk rate (11.1% in ‘18), which creates a star.

For our ranking purposes, most were in before the extent of Taillon’s injury was known and I dropped him towards Mike Clevinger as a result. We’re still in the intel-gathering phase here, but I lean pessimistic with elbow injuries.

Tier Five

I went head-to-head with Derek Carty’s THE BAT projection system before the season began, with Caleb Smith being someone he liked a lot more than me. Our resident (and possibly only remaining) Marlins fan, Pierre, claims he totally called this in his preseason evaluation of the Marlins' young staff. Smith's inability to work deep into games and accrue wins on Miami scared me off, as well as a likely innings cap since he threw just 77 ⅓ IP in ‘18, though I liked his talents. Now, even Smith’s own mother wouldn’t have predicted how red-hot the southpaw would scream out of the gates with a 0.83 WHIP and a 26.9% K-BB% that ranks fifth out of qualified starters. He won’t last all year, at least in the rotation, and so I can’t go top-100, but he is no fluke either.

In fact, he also liked Matthew Boyd more than me...but I liked Cole Hamels more, so I promise I have something to offer! I’ve also been higher than most on Collin McHugh throughout the preseason, which paid off handsomely through his first four starts but then Texas happened. Oy. I still believe in that sick slider that he brought back in the bullpen last season even as his .229 BABIP regresses -- hopefully, the low 63.3% strand rate regressing helps balance it out as Houston wins many games behind him.

Tier Six

Here’s where the question marks start to rise up, but the upside remains startable in most matchups. I won’t blame anyone for moving on from Darvish since he seems to have caught whatever Tyler Chatwood had last season -- 27 walks in 32 ⅔ innings! -- and an MLB-worst 17.8% walk rate for qualified starters. The 13% swinging-strike rate offers some light at the end of the tunnel, but this rank only reflects what he could be again. I’m treating him like a guy in the Minors that I’m stashing as he stays far from my starting lineup.

Ignoring the injury-related Steven Matz low rank for me, the widest “low gap” that I can speak to is Trevor Williams. I respect his ability to outperform peripherals by suppressing hard contact (career 0.86 HR/9) but it makes for a tightrope act. Pittsburgh is unlikely to make him into a 15-game winner in 2019 and the 18.1% strikeout rate is 69th out of 85 qualified SP. No, that’s not nice -- the added whiffs this season means these low-K guys burn extra. Even with a healthy 3.74 ERA/1.11 WHIP through 43 ⅓ IP this season, Williams is ranked 322nd in 5x5 leagues.

 

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

What I said for Williams goes for Mikolas as well. And the injury pessimism is cranked to 11 on Severino, who is expected to be gone through the All-Star break, but we still dream of that August/September boost.

Looks like I’m a big ol’ Eflin hater, especially after he just tossed seven frames of one-run ball on Sunday night. While that trimmed his ERA to an even 3.00 through seven starts (42 IP), the 4.32 FIP and 4.68 xFIP rose a bit. His 31 K’s in the 42 frames are in Trevor Williams territory yet Eflin’s 1.50 HR/9 is aligned with the 1.55 career mark. Fangraphs has his hard-hit rate dropping from 29.1% in ‘18 to 21.2%, but Statcast has it rising from 33.2% to 34.5% with a slight rise in average exit velocity yielded. I side with Statcast and SIERA, so I’ll let you guys have all the Eflin fun.

Tier Eight

I don’t want this piece to be soaked in Haterade, but I can’t ignore being 120 slots lower on Stroman than the next-lowest ranker. The 2.20 ERA/1.20 WHIP is great and he’s even upped his strikeout rate to a healthy 22.8% (17.2% in ‘18) -- but his 3.81 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA are nearly identical to 2018. Statcast has his average exit velo up half a tick and after yielding an average launch angle lower than 0.5 degrees in his last four seasons, it’s up to five degrees in ‘19. Despite that, he’s yet to give up a homer. I accept being slow to accept Stroman, maybe I’m mistaken, but I just don’t see sustainable growth. Odorizzi is in the same camp, with a 4.48 xFIP and 4.34 SIERA behind his 2.78 ERA/1.09 WHIP.

In SP-eligible-but-not-really-SP news, John Gant has been a beast so far. Out of 223 pitchers that have had at least 40 batted balls off of them, Gant’s 83.5 mph average exit velocity on flies and liners is the lowest figure. Hitters simply aren’t getting good wood on his filth and I’m digging it. And in other news, my bold prediction about Anibal Sanchez being awesome is aging so very poorly, sigh.

Tier Nine

This tier has serious upside and I probably should have Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Woodruff, Spencer Turnbull and Martin Perez a little higher. DeSclafani has allowed just one run in his last three starts combined, yielding just nine hits with 20 strikeouts over 17 ⅔ IP. Woodruff has a beautiful 45/12 K/BB rate and 3.33 FIP/3.53 xFIP/3.63 SIERA underneath the 4.71 ERA, he just needs to get that command right. Turnbull’s turned in one poor start out of seven thus far, allowing two earned runs in his last four starts (24 innings) despite facing Boston and Philly alongside easier KC and Pittsburgh matchups. Perez had to open the season in Minnesota’s bullpen but eight shutout frames against the Astros is a strong signal that he’s hitting a stride.

Tier 10 & 11

Tier 10 kicks off with a Jimmy Nelson stash and ends with a Forrest Whitley stash. Nelson’s first rehab appearance came at Triple-A on Sunday, where he allowed three runs on two hits and four walks with three strikeouts in 3 ⅓ innings. Let’s hope that control comes back to him in short order and the 2017 Nelson rears his head. Don’t count on Nelson to reliably start for you before June. Whitley continues to show strikeout stuff at Triple-A (18 in 14 IP) but a 7.71 ERA/1.43 WHIP is rough, so a promotion isn’t pressing.

Tier 11 has my favorite stash, though, in Mr. Luzardo. The early-season shoulder injury doesn’t dampen my enthusiasm for the 21-year-old southpaw, as he was never going to pitch a full season’s worth of frames. The A’s have little rotation depth and all Luzardo did at age-20 was post a combined 2.88 ERA with 129 strikeouts in 109 ⅓ innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A in ‘18. He’ll get to call Oakland’s spacious park home and I can’t wait to see him in the show.

Tiers 12, 13 and 14

There’s little to see here in terms of upside, but Tier 12 has potential in Mitch Keller and Jonathan Loaisiga. Keller may take Taillon’s rotation spot down the road, but Pittsburgh has stated they don’t want to rush his development until he’s ready rather than forcing the majors due to injury needs. Loaisiga is stepping into James Paxton’s rotation slot, but he shouldn’t be needed for long.

Unlucky Tier 13 can bring you some other injury stashes in Taijuan Walker and Dinelson Lamet, as well as Arizona’s Jon Duplantier, who may step into Zack Godley’s rotation spot. Houston’s Framber Valdez has some appeal should he get a crack at the bigs again, which I’d anticipate since McHugh and Brad Peacock can’t stay in the rotation all year long (innings) and Wade Miley is Wade Miley.

You don’t want to venture into Tier 14, but those who still believe in Touki Toussaint making it as a starter rather than reliever are free to buy in for a penny. I think he joins fellow Tier 14-er Luiz Gohara in Atlanta’s bullpen someday, though the Braves could trade one or both of them for reinforcements elsewhere. Their rotation pipeline is sick. Other intriguing names would another couple of rehabbing A’s in Sean Manaea and A.J. Puk. It saddens me that we’ve been robbed of so many great pitching performances in lieu of Aaron Brooks box scores to open ‘19, but I dream of warmer days with sharp curveballs.

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