September 7, 2016

Renee Miller's DraftKings daily fantasy football lineup picks. Week 1 NFL DFS sleepers & FLEX values - running backs (RB), wide receivers (WR), tight ends (TE).

It’s easy to let your DraftKings FLEX spot be left up to the amount of salary remaining after you fill out the rest of the squad. That’s the ‘flex-by-default’ strategy, and the purpose of this Week One DraftKings DFS article is to help you avoid it. You can and should use the FLEX spot to strengthen and diversify your daily league lineups.

A couple of thoughts: (1) You don’t have to spend all the salary cap. A better player in a better situation may force you to leave a few hundred salary cap dollars on the table. Force yourself to roster the best lineup, even if it fails to use the whole cap. (2) As a scientist, I like to use players for which I can build a case based on multiple pieces of evidence. I look at things like opportunities, efficiency, opponent and game flow to start my research. I want as many players that are positive in all categories as I can fit. Having an idea of the players I want before I work with salaries helps me with #1 too.

Editor's Note: If you like DraftKings, then be sure to also check out Fantasy Aces for Week 1. They have a $10,000 top prize for their $100,000 NFL Hail Mary. Register now on Fantasy Aces, and get your winning DFS lineups ready for Week 1!

Week 1 DraftKings FLEX Options - Daily Fantasy Football Picks

Use this list as your FLEX cheat sheet; if a player is on here, there’s good reason to roster him in your last spot. I assume that you have $6,500 or less to work with for this final spot on the roster.

I also assume you’ll arrange accordingly so that the player with the latest game start is in the FLEX in case you should need to swap someone out. Let's get to it.

Safe Options - Week 1 DFS Lineup Picks

Jeremy Maclin $6,500: The Chiefs have a nice implied team total this week and project as big home favorites, which bodes well for the passing game. Alex Smith is my favorite cheap quarterback and Maclin is by far his favorite target. Maclin is never the flashy play, but comes through week after week. If you need some stability in the form of receptions with multi-TD upside, Maclin fits.

Jarvis Landry $6,000: Landry is known as a PPR beast, but his price doesn’t reflect his standing as last year’s sixth-most highly targeted receiver (he was fourth in receptions per game with 6.88). With DeVante Parker doubtful for Week 1, and a slew of rookies and underwhelming veterans behind him, Landry should be busy often in Seattle. Yes, the matchup is a tough one, but volume alone should allow Landry to reach value on Sunday at very low ownership.

Latavius Murray $5,600: Murray projects as one of the highest owned players this weekend given the matchup with New Orleans’ porous run defense. As the every down back for a solid team that should keep pace with the Saints in one of the week’s highest scoring games, Murray has a nice combination of security and upside at his price.

Upside Options - Week 1 DFS Lineup Picks

Rashad Jennings $5,400: Jennings and upside aren’t often used in the same sentence, but he is the clear lead back for a Giants team that should be able to move the ball. Dallas’ run defense was fantasy friendly last year, allowing opposing backs the sixth-most fantasy points. Jennings is healthy, in line for the goal line work, and could end the day with two touchdowns. At worst, his volume of carries should be in the 15-20 range which won’t hurt you.

Spencer Ware $4,400: Speaking of generous running defenses, Ware gets the Chargers for a Week 1 AFC West showdown. With Jamal Charles out, Ware should play the entire game and has potential as a goal line workhorse. While some try to figure out the Seattle running situation, I’m continuing to roster Ware at a high rate in my lineups.

John Brown $5,200: Even very good defenses struggle against an Arizona Cardinals aerial attack that’s a real three-headed monster when healthy (four, if you count David Johnson). Brown has a reputation for being only a big-play guy, and it’s true, his average yards per catch is impressive, but he also averaged almost seven targets a game. He’s involved enough that he won’t kill you if he doesn’t break the long catch and run for a touchdown, but it’s a very real possibility he does that too.

Value Options - Week 1 DFS Lineup Picks

Charles Clay $3,400: Tight ends are an easy way to save money on DraftKings, but not all cheap players represent value. Clay and Tyrod Taylor have chemistry going back to last season and look to have maintained it despite Clay’s limited preseason, hooking up for a nice long reception vs. the Giants. He’s the number two option in the Bills passing game and is one of a few options I feel honestly good about in this range.

Rishard Matthews $3,300: A number one wide receiver for near minimum price? For that matter, a number two for $3000? That’d be Tajae Sharpe, who is a fine play for this section also. The Titans face a tough Minnesota defense, but at these prices, both receivers have a decent chance of paying off their salaries. Marcus Mariota was capable when healthy last year and this whole offense could prove more effective than people expect. Take a risk getting in on the literal ground floor with one of these two receivers in Week 1.

Christine Michael $3,700: As mentioned above, I think you’ll do fine with Ware, but if it comes out that Michael is not only atop the depth chart for Seattle, but starting on Sunday, you deserve some exposure to the young back. He’s yet to prove the hype that has surrounded him since entering the league, but this could be the chance he needs. Miami was the league’s MOST generous run defense last year in terms of fantasy points allowed, and Seattle is a 10 point favorite at home, so someone in Seattle should be raking on the ground this weekend.