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RotoBaller staff's bold predictions for the 2026 fantasy football season. Expert draft advice and targets from RotoBaller, including Chase Brown, Caleb Williams, and more.
Hey RotoBallers! With fantastic football draft season in full swing, let's take a look at some bold predictions for the upcoming season.
In this roundtable edition of bold predictions, see what RotoBaller writers have to say about Caleb Williams, DeVonta Smith, Chase Brown, Jayden Reed, and more.
Below, check out these nine fantasy football bold predictions from RotoBaller staff writers Andy Smith, Corbin Young, Matt Donnelly, Frank Ammirante, Adam Koffler, and Joey Pollize.
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Quentin Johnston Has a Breakout Season
In my 12 breakout candidates article in mid-July, I quantify breakouts as players who scored 200 fantasy points in a season. Johnston has been pushing that boundary for the past two seasons, scoring around 175 fantasy points in 2024 and 2025. He ranked 39th in expected fantasy points per game (EP/G), a career best.
Meanwhile, Johnston had his most efficient season, posting 2.2 fantasy points over expected (FPOE/G), mainly from continued strong production, scoring eight touchdowns and posting a career-best 14.4 yards per reception. There were pros and cons in Johnston's Year 3 profile.
He maintained his 21.2% first-read target share (24.4% in 2024), though his target per route rate fell to 17% from 24% (2024). Johnston's yards per route run dipped to 1.56 after 1.92 (2024). However, his 17.7% red-zone target share was second on the team, behind Oronde Gadsden (22.1%).
Though Johnston struggles to separate, he improved his yards per route run (1.94) against man coverage, up from 1.04 in 2024 while maintaining an above-average route win rate (21.5%). There have been positive reports about Mike McDaniel using him to create yards after the catch this season.
Johnston ranked 18th in 2024 and 34th in yards after the catch per reception. With the additions of Charlie Kolar and David Njoku, there might be an emphasis on heavier personnel, though the Dolphins ranked 29th and the Chargers at 32nd in 12-Personnel usage last season.
Under McDaniel, the Dolphins used play action at the fifth-highest rate, with the Chargers at 24th. We can presume the Chargers will use play action more often this season. Gadsden led the Chargers in yards per route run (3.28) on play-action plays, with Johnston (2.28) and Ladd McConkey (2.02) as the other two with over two yards per route run.
Johnston has been dealing with a lower-body injury in training camp, so hopefully that doesn't derail a breakout season. It's probably lukewarm to project Johnston having a breakout season, but I expect him to produce like a WR2 with a WR4 price tag in drafts.
- Corbin Young
Dalton Kincaid Turns in Long-Awaited Breakout Season, Is a Top-3 TE
Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid has flashed upside when on the field but has never been able to see a "true" full-time role in this offense. During the 2025 season, in games in which he saw more than 25 offensive snaps, Kincaid averaged a high of 14.8 PPR points per game (including two postseason efforts).
However, in the games in which Kincaid logged 25 or fewer offensive snaps, the young tight end would eclipse 20.0 PPR points only once and averaged a modest 8.6 PPR points per game.
He enjoyed a hot start to the season, logged at least 30 snaps in all but one of his first five games, but saw his usage gradually decline down the stretch due to injuries and lack of consistent pass blocking.
However, the report from Buffalo camp suggests Kincaid has taken the necessary step forward to become a true every-down option for Josh Allen. According to Ryan Talbot, Kincaid looked quite comfortable in pass-blocking situations in the preseason, and The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia noted that "health, summer usage, and ability are all trending towards an enhanced role in 2026."
While this has yet to be seen, if Kincaid were to play an everyday role, the young tight end could be a legit league winner. When on the field, Kincaid nearly averaged 15.0 PPR points per game. That mark would have put him as last season's TE2, trailing only the historic Trey McBride.
- Andy Smith
DeVonta Smith is This Year's Version of Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Not only will DeVonta Smith outproduce A.J. Brown this season, but Smith’s production will also rival that of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2025.
First things first, we have a Super Bowl MVP throwing to a Heisman Trophy winner. Philadelphia’s offense cannot be any more dysfunctional in 2026 than it was in 2025. Even with all the shortcomings on the Eagles offense, Smith caught 77 of 113 targets for 1,008 receiving yards and four touchdowns, finishing as the WR21 in fantasy.
Before Smith-Njigba had the season he had, he was already coming off a WR9 finish the previous season in which he finished with 253 fantasy points (14.9). Smith-Njigba took that “next step” after the departure of DK Metcalf. Smith faces a similar situation with Brown taking his 78 receptions, 121 targets, and 1,003 receiving yards to Foxborough.
Philadelphia added Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers, Dontayvion Wicks, Marquise Brown, and Elijah Moore this past offseason. Still, even with those additions, Smith is in line for an increased target share. Smith has one season under his belt in which he received 130-plus targets. In that campaign, he finished as the WR9 with 240.9 fantasy points, averaging 15.1 per game.
Based on last season’s fantasy finishes, 240 fantasy points would have been good enough to finish as the WR7 between Chris Olave and Nico Collins.
- Matt Donnelly
Chase Brown Leads Running Backs in Targets and Receptions
If you read my league-winners column, you already know that I am quite bullish on Cincinnati's Chase Brown this season. Brown is going as a mid-round selection in the second or third round, but I would be more than comfortable taking him just around the 1-2 turn in most drafts.
Brown had an inconsistent start to the 2025 season but quickly found his footing once Joe Burrow returned to action. From Weeks 1 through 12 (Burrow only played in Week 1), Brown averaged a solid 13.3 PPR points per game but was unable to fully reach that true "RB1 tier." During this stretch, Brown drew 5.2 targets per game and brought in 3.7 on a per-game basis.
However, from Weeks 13 through 18, Brown would average a much higher 22.3 PPR points per game with their QB1 back in action. During this stretch, Brown saw a similar 5.2 targets per game and was also able to bring in 4.7 of them on a weekly basis. He also found the end zone eight times in these six games and saw at least six targets in three games.
Back in 2024, Brown emerged as a late-season league-winner when he eventually won the full-time role in the backfield. From Weeks 10 through 17, Brown averaged a near-identical 20.0 PPR points per game while seeing 5.6 targets per game (and catching 4.7 of them per game).
This is where the bold prediction comes in. While it may seem unlikely for Brown to emerge as not only a legit top-5 RB in fantasy but also to lead the sport in receptions/targets, it is possible given his track record.
During this noted stretch in 2024 (Weeks 10 through 17), Brown drew the second-most targets at his position, trailing only Miami's De'Von Achane (45). His receptions (33) also trailed only Achane.
In 2025 (from Weeks 13 through 18), Brown drew the fourth-most targets among RBs, trailing only Kenny Gainwell, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson. However, despite being fourth in receptions as well, he was just three behind Gainwell for the most among all running backs.
Even though Brown will have to surpass the consensus 1.01 and 1.02 for this bold prediction to come true, Brown has seen the workload, and this is within a possible range of outcomes.
- Andy Smith
Bo Nix Finishes as a Top-3 Quarterback
This one seems a little crazy. That is, until you peel back the onion. Nix finished last season as the QB11 on a per-game basis. Heading into 2026, his average draft position (ADP) sits at 106.9 (QB15) on Underdog.
Nix attempted a league-high 612 passes last season despite the Broncos outscoring their opponents 401-311 on their way to a 14-3 record. Sean Payton and Davis Webb want to throw the football regardless of the situation, as shown by their propensity to throw the ball on early downs.
Top Offenses by Early-Down Pass Rate Over Expectation (2025)
1. Cardinals (+9.4%)
2. Chiefs (+8.2%)
3. Rams (+6.4%)
4. Jaguars (+6.0%)
5. Bengals (+5.2%)
6. Broncos (+4.8%)
7. Patriots (+4.8%)
8. Chargers (+4.4%)
9. 49ers (+2.5%)
10. Colts (+2.4%)
...
29. Dolphins (-4.8%)
30.…— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 1, 2026
This was done with Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and rookie Pat Bryant. This offseason, the Broncos added Jaylen Waddle. History has shown that when an elite wide receiver is added to a team, the entire offense, including both the receiver and the quarterback, gets elevated.
Check this out:
QB fPPG before & after an elite WR joined the team
Season before A.J. Brown - 22.9
1st season w/ AJB - 28Season before Stefon Diggs - 22
1st season w/ Diggs - 29.4BO NIX (ADP - 107.6, QB15)
Season before Jaylen Waddle - 21
1st season w/ Waddle - 🚀?— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) July 2, 2026
I used Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts in that tweet because they have similar traits to Nix. All three run the ball, and all three added (or "are adding" in the case of Nix) an elite wideout. Nix was sixth among quarterbacks in rushing attempts in 2025 with 83, and fifth as a rookie the season before with 92.
The four guys ahead of Nix in terms of rushing attempts in 2024 (Allen, Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels) all finished inside the top-6 quarterbacks that season. In short, mobile quarterbacks are a cheat code in fantasy football.
Now add Waddle to a team that wants to play fast and throw the football a lot. All of the pieces are there for Nix to take a massive jump in Year 3.
- Adam Koffler
Caleb Williams Puts Up 40+ Passing Touchdowns
Williams was considered one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory coming out of the 2024 NFL Draft.
After a disappointing rookie year, which was partly affected by poor playcalling from Shane Waldron, Williams showed flashes of brilliance in Year 1 of Ben Johnson's offense. We saw some massive spike weeks, including 36.7 fantasy points in Week 9. This is despite learning a complex scheme, where he had to play under center more than he ever had before.
Now entering Year 2 in Johnson's offense, Williams is a lot more comfortable. Reports out of camp have been overwhelmingly positive. On top of that, it's worth noting that Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, and Luther Burden III were unproven players last year, with the latter two as rookies.
But now they're entrenched in their roles, fully comfortable in Johnson's offense. Considering that continuity, we could see the Bears' offense absolutely take off this year.
In short, we have an extremely talented quarterback, heading into his third season, playing for one of the best play-callers in the NFL. Williams threw for 27 touchdowns last season. With an assortment of weapons, my bold prediction is that he gets to 40 in 2026. There's a legitimate chance that this is among the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL this year.
- Frank Ammirante
Jordan Mason Scores 10+ Rushing Touchdowns and Becomes a Borderline RB1
The last running back to score 10+ rushing touchdowns for the Vikings was Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 16 in 2020 and 13 in 2019. Mason has back-to-back seasons with over 150 rush attempts and 750 rushing yards. Aaron Jones led the team in rush share (47%) and target share (14%). Meanwhile, Mason had a 42% rush share with a 4% target share last season.
In Weeks 3-7 with Jones injured, Mason handled 60% of the team's rush attempts and garnered 5% of the targets for the Vikings. He produced the 16th-most PPR/G among all running backs in Weeks 3-7. Mason handled 53.8% of the team's carries inside the five-yard line (No. 20) with other juicy underlying metrics.
That's evident in Mason's 56% rushing success rate (No. 20), 19% missed tackle rate (No. 29), 2.42 yards after contact per attempt (No. 24), and 2.35 yards before contact per attempt (No. 20). Mason has been one of the better rushers in the rushing advanced stats on a team that ranked 12th in rush percentage in neutral game scripts.
Mason likely won't garner a receiving role, but can be a strong producer as a rusher. He will continue to share backfield opportunities with Jones when healthy. However, there's a chance the rushing offense gains efficiency with Kyler Murray as their starting quarterback.
That's evident in the Cardinals' running backs' efficiency with an above-average rushing FPOE/G in 2023 and 2024. However, the Cardinals' RB efficiency dipped in 2025 after multiple injuries to James Conner and Trey Benson. The more we look into Mason, the more there are reasons for optimism as a rusher.
Look for Mason to have a breakout season, primarily as a rusher with 10+ touchdowns this season.
- Corbin Young
Jayden Reed Is The Packers' Top Fantasy Pass Catcher
The Green Bay Packers will enter the season with three really good pass catchers in this offense. Christian Watson will be the team's primary deep-threat target, Tucker Kraft will get all the hard yards after the catch, and Jayden Reed will fit in where the Packers see fit. Matthew Golden should also see more opportunities in this offense in his second season.
Of these four pass catchers, most fantasy managers would say that Watson or Kraft will lead this team in the passing game. In reality, though, it's going to be Reed.
Reed didn't play a whole lot last season after undergoing surgery on a broken collarbone and a fractured foot early in the season. He only played in seven contests and wasn't really a reliable fantasy option when he returned toward the end of the year. But the departures of both Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs will help the Packers playmaker be the top fantasy option in this offense.
Jayden Reed vs. Javon Bullard in 1-on-1s today: pic.twitter.com/ljWhYnoqoH
— Kelly Hallinan (@kellyhals) August 4, 2026
Reed was always really efficient with his opportunities. His advanced metrics always suggested that a big-time season could be in store for him, but the Packers always had too many weapons in their offense. Well, Reed could now take off in 2026 with two wide receivers in Wicks and Doubs on different teams.
Back in 2023, Reed ranked as the WR8 in fantasy points per route run and as the RB5 in fantasy points per target. In 2024, he ranked as the WR12 in fantasy points per route run and as the WR1 in fantasy points per target. The departures of Wicks and Doubs leave 131 vacant targets in this offense. If only 25% of those vacated targets go to Reed, that could be enough to make him a consistent fantasy star.
Reed is one of the best value picks in fantasy drafts this year. His potential increased target share, plus advanced metrics from 2023 and 2024, prove a breakout campaign could be on the horizon.
- Joey Pollizze
Who Should I Draft Fantasy Football Tool
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2026 Player Decisions. Today's focus is on specific players: Chase Brown, Caleb Williams, DeVonta Smith, Quentin Johnston, Bo Nix, Jayden Reed, Jordan Mason. These are some common searches for 2026 fantasy football drafts.
Using The Tool. This is a simple tool but very powerful. The first step is to enter the player names that you want to compare. In the first box, search for the first player's name. In the second box, search for the second player's name. Compare up to four NFL players at once, and then click the Who To Draft? button to see who the recommended draft picks are based on fantasy football rankings, projections, and more.
Improvements For Who Should I Draft? You may have noticed our Who Should I Draft? tool has gotten an overhaul. We've added lots of great features for you to give you as much information as possible to win your 2026 fantasy football drafts. You'll see NFL player tiles with headshots and bye weeks, stats and projections, ADPs, strength of schedule, enhanced search results with data to compare, and a slick interface. We hope you enjoy!
How It Works. Our RotoBaller staff puts together their preseason fantasy football rankings and projections based on their research and updates them constantly throughout the preseason. That information is the core data that is powering the decision-making in this tool. When you search for player names, you will only see those players who are ranked.
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Popular Draft Searches. Curious to see some tough draft decisions for 2026? Below you will find a list of some popular Who Should I Draft? searches that RotoBaller readers are looking at. Click any of the links to see the results and recommendations.
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