RADIO
In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."
So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.
In this week's report, I'll be discussing the struggles of a first-rounder, the turnaround of a former #1 prospect, the Cleveland pitching factory, and so much more.
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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes
Juan Soto Not Hitting Like the Goato
What in the world is wrong with Juan Soto? In 78 games with the Padres since the massive trade deadline deal last season, Soto is slashing .217/.372/.375 with 10 home runs and 25 RBIs. He’s still walking a ton and hitting the ball hard, but the results haven’t been there and many fantasy managers are wondering what the heck to do with him.
When digging into the profile, Soto is having one of the best seasons of his career in the quality of contact department, currently sporting a 14.8% barrel rate, 92.4 mph AVG exit velocity, and 57.4% hard-hit rate. He’s also walking 19.6% of the time. In these two areas, Soto is still being Soto this season.
However, while Soto is still hitting the ball hard, his ground ball rate has risen to a career-high 57.4%. On top of that, he has the worst zone contact rate (80.8%) and whiff rate (27.1%) of his career. Soto is also being even more patient than usual with career-low marks in swing% and first pitch swing%.
All in all, I’m not terribly worried about Soto. Does he need to correct some of the metrics in the last paragraph? Yes. Does he hit too many ground balls? Yes. Is it possible that he’s more of a top 10-15 dynasty asset than a no-doubt top-five one? Sure. But with all of that said, I’m definitely still believing that a turnaround is coming and that you should buy low if that opportunity has presented itself in your dynasty league.
A More Powerful Wander Franco
We go from one elite young hitter currently struggling to another elite young hitter currently thriving. With Wander Franco, the hit tool has never once been questioned by literally anyone. However, just how much power and speed he would provide was the question many had over the last year or two. Early in 2023, Franco is doing his best to put those questions to rest.
In 108 plate appearances, Franco is slashing .306/.370/.551 with four home runs and five steals, putting him on a 20/25 pace over 650 plate appearances. Franco has been hitting the ball harder this season and at a more optimum launch angle, currently sitting with an 11.3% barrel rate, 42.5% hard-hit rate, 90.5 mph AVG exit velocity, and a 13.6° launch angle. All four of those metrics are career-best marks for the 22-year-old Franco.
Franco has added this power without sacrificing any of his elite plate discipline metrics either. Sure, the strikeout rate has risen from 9.6% to 15.1% (gasp!), but Franco still has a 91.7% zone contact rate and a 16% whiff rate. He has even improved his chase rate from 30.1% to 23.5%. If Franco’s power gains stick and he runs enough to flirt with 20 steals as well, he’s going to be back pushing top 10 overall status in dynasty rankings.
Two New Top 10 Prospects
As we approach the end of the first month of baseball action, two prospects have joined the top 10 prospect discussion. And not just because there have been a few graduations from preseason top 10 prospects either. Both Jackson Holliday and Evan Carter deserve to be inside the top 10 prospect rankings and could rise into the top five before too long.
Let’s start with Carter. Remember when the Rangers took him 50th overall in the shortened 2020 draft, which made nearly everyone scratch their heads and wonder if Texas had gone crazy? Well, I’d say that pick has worked out and then some as Carter has cemented his place as an elite prospect this season.
In 2022, Carter displayed an above-average or better hit tool with an exceptional approach and plus speed as well, but the power lagged behind a bit. However, that power projection was there and Carter is beginning to translate his plus raw power into game power more consistently (Four HR, .604 SLG, .245 ISO in 14 games) without sacrificing his contact skills or approach. That can sometimes be the outcome when a prospect adds power. With this added power, Carter is now a standout offensive talent across the board and belongs inside the top 10 fantasy-focused prospect lists.
As for baby-faced Jackson Holliday, the second-generation star is on fire to open the 2023 season and has already been promoted from Lo-A to Hi-A at just 19 years old. Holliday wasted little time making an impact at that level with a triple and a home run in his third Hi-A game on Thursday. This after slashing a ridiculous .392/.523/.667 in 65 Lo-A plate appearances with nine extra-base hits, two home runs, three steals, and more walks (14) than strikeouts (12).
Holliday is easily a plus hitter who is advanced beyond his years. And honestly, he’s probably already one of the most advanced hitters in the minor leagues. But on top of the hit tool, Holliday is an above-average to plus runner and is already showing solid power as well, potentially developing into a plus power bat in time as he adds strength to his frame. There aren’t many better combinations of a high ceiling and high floor in the minor leagues right now.
Cleveland Pitching Factory Working Overtime
Plenty of Cleveland pitching prospects are in the spotlight right now. Over the last week, we’ve seen the MLB debuts of Logan T. Allen and Tanner Bibee along with the Triple-A debut of Gavin Williams. Allen debuted with Cleveland first and dazzled over six innings, allowing one run with eight strikeouts.
He mixed his four pitches well and had a whiff rate above 30% on his four-seamer, sweeper, and splitter. While Allen had a rough stint in Triple-A last season, he was rising up prospect rankings quickly before that and pitched very well in Triple-A this season before getting called up to Cleveland. The upside isn’t massive, but Allen has a fairly high floor and projects as a mid-rotation arm for the Guardians.
As for Bibee, I have higher hopes for him and believe he could develop into a back-end #2 starter at the major league level. Bibee has put himself squarely in the top 10 pitching prospect discussion this season thanks to his blend of stuff, command/control, performance, and proximity to the majors. That stuff was on full display during his debut on Thursday with Bibee striking out eight over 5.2 innings with a 38.9% whiff rate on his slider and 40% on his changeup. He’s a strong buy in dynasty leagues right now.
Down in Triple-A, Williams finally made his debut at the level and continued his dominant ways with 5.1 shutout innings and six strikeouts. In 2022, Williams posted a 1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 33.1% strikeout rate between Hi-A and Double-A. Thursday’s outing dropped his 2023 ERA to a minuscule 0.46 in 19.2 innings.
As much as I like Allen and Bibee, I like Williams a lot more. His four-pitch mix is headlined by a fastball and curveball that are both easily plus, bordering on double-plus at times. He’s shown that he can miss bats at an elite clip while keeping the walk rate in check. Long-term, the upside is a borderline ace and we could see him with Cleveland by the All-Star break.
Unfortunately, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows when it comes to Cleveland pitching prospects right now. Coming into the season, Daniel Espino was considered to be their top pitching prospect. That title and his future in general have become less clear. Espino has yet to pitch this season due to a labrum injury and recently suffered a setback.
We have no idea when we’ll see the electric right-hander back on the mound and the mounting injury history gives him a greater reliever risk. There’s no doubt that Espino is nasty with arguably the highest upside of any pitching prospect in the game thanks to a big fastball, two sharp breaking balls, and a good changeup.
However, the level of risk with Espino is continuously growing and makes him hard to invest in right now in dynasty leagues. If the person rostering Espino is panicking and willing to sell very low, I’m not opposed to trying to work out a deal. But the price would have to be a solid discount for me to consider right now given all the risk and uncertainty.
Dynasty Quick Hits
In five starts this season, Chris Sale looked like vintage Sale against Minnesota, okay against the lowly Tigers, and terrible against Baltimore twice and Tampa Bay once. Sale’s fastball velocity is down a tick and the spin rates on all four offerings are down 100-150 RPMs. I’m not saying Sale can’t still have some fantasy value, but I’m not expecting him to return to elite levels or close to it. He’ll have his dominant outings as he did in Minnesota, but there’s too much inconsistency and risk for me to invest in dynasty leagues.
While I might not be looking to invest in Sale right now, one Boston Red Sox player I am looking to target in dynasty leagues is Jarren Duran. The road from rising prospect to post-top prospect hype has been a bumpy ride for Duran, but it appears that he could finally be putting it all together in his latest stint with Boston.
In 40 plate appearances, Duran is slashing .400/.425/.629 with a homer and two steals. While his strikeout rate is still sitting at 30%, Duran has cut his chase rate and his quality of contact metrics considerably higher than ever before. He’s worth targeting to see if he’s finally able to become the impact fantasy contributor that many thought he could be.
Is Cody Bellinger turning things around? It’s weird to see players leave the Dodgers and get better, but that’s exactly what we’re seeing over the first several weeks of the season with Bellinger. He has five home runs, four steals, and a .300/.380/.550 slash line in 92 plate appearances.
I’m obviously not going to magically assume that Bellinger is “back” after more than two years of immense struggles in several areas, but those problem areas have seen improvements early in 2023. After two seasons of Bellinger’s strikeout rate spiking to around 27%, he’s back down to his normal mid-teens range and is even currently sitting with a career-best 14.1% mark.
Bellinger has also improved his zone contact, whiff, and chase rates this season as well. However, Bellinger’s exit velocity and hard-hit rate are lower than they ever have been. So while the hot start and improved metrics are at least encouraging, I’m more so monitoring him right now than buying back in.
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