RADIO
We have the last big day of college football today. I find it sad because this has been a blast again this year! We have 47 games on our final Saturday of the season for about half the teams. Some are still fighting for a bowl berth. Some are fighting for pride. Some are playoff games during the regular season. Most are rivalries and strange things happen in those. What do we have to look forward to? Damn near everything!
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that I really need to leave Eastern Michigan the hell alone and most of the Pac-12 is not my friend.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 13 (11/26)
Georgia Tech at (1)Georgia(-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I get wanting to stick it to a rival, but this feels high to me. Ole Miss was the only team to cover Tech by this much and the Bees are a different team than they were in Week 3. This is too high. Give me the Wreck!
(3)Michigan at (2)Ohio State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is hard with so many running backs being banged up for both teams. However, that also makes this easy. Ohio State can throw and Michigan can't. Give me the Buckeyes.
South Carolina at (8)Clemson(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Beating Tennessee sure changed this line. It's one thing to beat a team like the Vols at home, but going on the road is completely different. That said, we know Carolina has it in them now where we didn't before. This feels high for the rivalry. I'll take the Gamecocks.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This just feels like such a weird spread. That said, I feel like Spencer Sanders is healthy. Bedlam just got away from them early. I think the Cowboys rebound here. Give me the Pokes.
Army(-19.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels high, but Army is really good at making other teams uncomfortable. Give me Army, but I'm not touching this.
New Mexico State at Liberty(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This shouldn't be too many. Give me Liberty.
Rutgers at Maryland(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Rutgers has been stomped by the Big Ten(14) elite lately. Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota, and Ohio State all beat them by more than 30. No "regular" team has beaten them by more than a touchdown besides Iowa. Is Maryland better than Iowa? Probably not. Give me Rutgers, but I don't trust it much.
Coastal Carolina at James Madison(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I was hoping this was going to be around 10 points, but no such luck. CCU has been decent without Grayson McCall. Decent enough that the half might be a bit too much. Give me Coastal.
Old Dominion at South Alabama(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Monarchs have lost five straight since an improbable win over Coastal in Conway back in Week 7. I have to take USA.
Georgia State at Marshall(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This isn't really enough to scare me off. I do think Marshall is the better team and they're at home. Give me the Herd.
Western Kentucky(-7.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There have been a couple of teams that have been able to speed up the Owls this year. They lost both games (UCF, Middle Tennessee State). The Hilltoppers should be able to do the same. This feels low. Give me WKU.
East Carolina(-9.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ten points on the road after they just got dump-trucked by Houston? That's a tough ask. Give me Temple. They may not win outright, but that defense has played well for a while now.
Kent State at Buffalo(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Apparently, people can get into and out of Buffalo now. I kind of think Kent is going to wish they had stayed home. Give me the Bulls.
Akron at Northern Illinois(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's a lot of juice on the Huskies, but should there be? They have played pretty well with the revolving door at both QB and RB. The Zips have problems running the ball when it's not DJ Irons running it. I'm a big fan of what Akron has going on though. I'm taking the Zips. I don't think they win, but they should be able to stay at about a touchdown.
Rice at North Texas(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I want to say that this is too many, but Rice just got blasted by UTSA and Western Kentucky. The Mean Green blew out the Hilltoppers and hung with UTSA. I have to go with North Texas, but I'm lowering the bet because of that half.
(25)Louisville at Kentucky(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Take a quick look at that Kentucky schedule. Aside from the humbling loss at home to Vanderbilt, it has been a tough run for the Wildcats. Speaking of run, Louisville has had troubles stopping the run, which is great for Chris Rodriguez. I'm leaning towards Kentucky, but I'm not going heavy on this either way.
Auburn at (7)Alabama(-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This must be a joke. Auburn has hung with everyone and even beaten A&M since they brought Carnell Williams in as the interim. The Tigers aren't just playing for pride here. They're bowl eligible if they get a win. I think they're going to be fired up here, and they sure as hell won't get blown out. Give me Auburn.
(9)Oregon(-3.5) at (21)Oregon State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is half of what it opened at. Bo Nix did play last week, but he clearly wasn't able to run as he usually does on that ankle. Is his ankle good enough to add that mobility back to his repertoire? If you're betting the Ducks, I feel like this line might slip under 3, so I would hold out. It's at -3 in a lot of places right now. This feels like a bit of overcorrection to me. I'll take the Ducks.
Illinois(-14.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I felt like this was too many, then I remembered what Minnesota did to them a couple of weeks ago. The Wildcats have problems with running teams. Mohamed Ibrahim went nuts on Northwestern. Chase Brown isn't quite as good as Mo, but he's close. Give me the Illini, but I don't like that half.
Minnesota at Wisconsin(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I believe in Ibrahim, and honestly, Athan Kaliakmanis and his limited passing game thus far might still be better than Graham Mertz. Give me the Gophers.
Purdue(-10.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Hoosiers have been all over the place this year. Their pass defense has been an issue, which is not what you want with Aiden O'Connell on the other side. I'll take Purdue.
Wake Forest(-3.5) at Duke
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Sam Hartman was back to doing what Sam Hartman does last week. I smell blowout. Give me Wake.
Hawaii at San Jose State(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Warriors got an outright win last week, not just a moral victory. The defense is playing pretty well and Brayden Schager is finally coming into his own in this offense. This feels high. I'll take Hawaii.
Memphis at SMU(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Forgive me if I don't really believe in Memphis for beating up on North Alabama and Tulsa. Give me the Ponies.
Troy(-13.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Too low. Kimani Vidal is going to have another huge game here. Give me the Trojans.
UAB(-17.5) at Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This still feels low. UAB is solid all over the field. I don't like that half, so I have to tone the bet down a bit. Give me UAB.
UTEP at UTSA(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There are a lot of halves on the tough side of spreads on this slate. I'm likely going to lose a few of those. This may be one of them, so I'm lowering the bet a little. Give me UTSA.
Iowa State at (4)TCU(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I did like it better at 10.5. I still feel like this is too high. TCU has only won three of the last seven by ten points, all of them by exactly ten points. I know this ISU defense is good. I expect TCU to win, but not by double figures. Give me Iowa State.
Michigan State at (11)Penn State(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the largest line jump I've ever seen. It opened at -7. I get it...Penn State has roughed up the three worst Big Ten (14) teams in the last three weeks. Michigan State isn't one of those. This feels high. I'll take Sparty.
(14)Utah(-29.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Six of Colorado's ten losses have come by more than 30 points. Give me Utah.
Southern Mississippi(-3.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Southern Miss is improving, but I feel like Monroe is still the better team. Give me the Warhawks at home.
Louisiana(-4.5) at Texas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In San Marcos? Nah, I'll take the Bobcats outright, thank you very much.
Nevada at UNLV(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The battle for the Fremont Cannon promises to be a laugher this year. The Pack have lost seven of their nine games by 14 or more, including the game against Incarnate Word. Give me UNLV by around double this!
Appalachian State(-6.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
App State has lost some luster since knocking off an A&M team that looks more like Missouri. A solid team, but they just can't get it together. I'll take the Mountaineers, but I don't really trust it.
Middle Tennessee State(-19.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
All seven losses by FIU are by more than 20 points. Do I think they're going to lose? Absolutely, so they should lose by 20, right? That's what the pattern says. Give me MTSU.
(5)LSU(-9.5) at Texas A&M
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels like a giant trap, doesn't it? I just can't shake the images of how bad this A&M team has looked at times this year. I have to go with LSU, but I'm showing great constraint by not maxing this out.
(22)Central Florida(-20.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The War On I-4 is usually just that. Why would this year be any different? This is way too high! I still think USF loses, but by closer to 10 than 20.
(15)Notre Dame at (6)USC(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Notre Dame defense has been a rock all year long. I think USC wins but by how much? Probably by enough, but I'm not going heavy on this.
(10)Tennessee(-13.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is falling, but not enough. There's no way that the Vols are the tenth-best team without Hendon Hooker. Vandy just toppled Florida and Kentucky. I said a couple of weeks ago that I like what Clark Lea has going on there in Nashville. I do enough that I like Vandy outright.
Oklahoma(-2.5) at Texas Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The weather is kind of nasty in Lubbock, but it is expected to be better by tomorrow night. I like what I've seen from Oklahoma lately. This is a winnable game, so I'm taking the Sooners. I'm probably not betting on them though. I don't believe that much just yet.
Syracuse(-10.5) at Boston College
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's easy to lose sight of Boston College's progress after they got stomped by the Irish, but I'm going to try not to. This feels high, especially on Chestnut Hill. Give me BC.
Tulsa at Houston(-12.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Can we believe in the Cougars again? It sure looks like it right now. I considered a max bet here, but I will never trust a Dana Holgorsen-coached team that much. Give me Houston.
Kansas at (12)Kansas State(-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What better way to piss in Big Brother's Cheerios than to knock them out of the conference championship game at home? There isn't one. Can Kansas do it? I don't think so. Their run defense can't contain Deuce Vaughn for the whole game. Give me K-State.
Pittsburgh(-6.5) at Miami
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Israel Abanikanda should get this cover, but I don't really trust it. Give me Pitt, but I'm lowering the bet.
Air Force(-1.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I believe in Jalen Mayden and in that defense. I still like the Aztecs outright.
(13)Washington(-1.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Michael Penix isn't making the mistakes that the Cougars have relied upon to snipe wins in games they shouldn't. I do think this stays close, but not this close. Give me the Huskies.
BYU(-6.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, this is tough. I really don't know. Stanford looked good in beating the Irish and bad since. Give me BYU, but I'm not touching this. There are too many sharps on the Cougars.
I went with only four one-pointers on the last big week, so I guess I am trying to make up some ground. I have 28 two-point bets and 22 on the three-line. I went a little higher on the fours with seven and maxed out two bets.
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