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Expert Week 6 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD props. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
The 2026 NFL season heads into Week 6 with another full slate of intriguing touchdown opportunities. Rather than chasing the shortest prices, we're focusing on players whose roles, matchup, and usage create value at the number.
As always, the key with volatile markets like touchdown props is price sensitivity. A player can be a strong touchdown candidate and still a bad bet if the odds are too short. These picks are built around finding the right mix of opportunity and payout.
Each week, this column aims to pinpoint touchdown picks using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. Results are tracked based on the proposed unit bet using the best available odds in the market at the time of publication. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
Odds from Novig are shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Matthew Golden, WR - Green Bay Packers (+160, DraftKings) (38% Novig)
Christian Watson came through in spectacular fashion for us last week with two long touchdown receptions, and now the Packers get another elite spot against the Cowboys on Sunday night.
This week we are pivoting to the other Green Bay wide receiver who also happens to have an elite role in scoring position. After three targets last week, Matthew Golden now leads the Packers with eight red-zone targets through five weeks. He also has longer odds than Watson to score this week, which gives him the edge from a value perspective.
Matthew Golden already has 6 receptions of 20+ yards this year https://t.co/04LsVt2uOp
— Eli Berkovits (@BookOfEli_NFL) October 13, 2026
The Cowboys have been vulnerable against opposing wide receivers this season, allowing five touchdowns to the position through five games. Golden scored in the two games prior to last week when he saw elite red zone usage. He has a great chance to get back in the end zone against the Cowboys.
BET: 1.0 units to win 1.6 units.
Isaiah Likely, TE - New York Giants (+185, BetMGM) (34% Novig)
Frankly, I'm surprised Isaiah Likely's anytime touchdown odds remain this high. The breakout tight end has commanded an elite 29.4% target share through five games and leads the team with eight red-zone targets.
Likely now has four touchdowns on the season after catching two last week against the Commanders.
Giants TE Isaiah Likely v. Commanders
11 Catches 94 Yards 2 TD 85% Catch RateRanks among TE's:
Catches: 33 (2nd)
Yards: 284 (4th)
TD: 4 (1st)A Giants big money free agent living up to his contract! @DaGorilla4 https://t.co/ShgoJkrqFc
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) October 12, 2026
The Saints have allowed two touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, but they have also allowed the sixth-most yards to the position, suggesting they struggle to defend the position even more. Given Likely's target volume, red-zone usage, and recent scoring production, he's an intriguing bet to find the end zone again.
BET: 1.0 units to win 1.85 units.
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More Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
Odds from Novig are shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Omarion Hampton, RB - Los Angeles Chargers (+280, FanDuel), (25% Novig)
Calling the Chargers’ season disappointing would be a gross understatement, and things won’t get any easier as they head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs.
Omarion Hampton’s snap share and rushing share have declined as the Chargers continue searching for a spark on offense, but his role in scoring position remains unchanged. He’s still the team’s preferred option in the red zone, out-touching Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal 14-to-4 combined this season.
The Chiefs have allowed three rushing touchdowns in four games, suggesting there’s potential to exploit on the ground. At nearly 3-to-1 odds, backing Hampton as the goal-line back feels like a steal, even in a struggling Chargers offense.
BET: 0.5 units to win 1.4 units.
Dallas Goedert, TE - Philadelphia Eagles (+320, FanDuel), (24% Novig)
While the absences of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley create uncertainty for the Eagles’ offense, they could also open the door for Goedert to take on a larger role as a reliable option in the passing game.
With Philadelphia potentially leaning more heavily on short, high-percentage throws, Goedert could be a key target near the goal line, where he has been a major factor dating back to last season.
Goedert scored twice in Week 1 when he played over 94% of snaps, and he scored 11 touchdowns last season. He played over 69% of the snaps last week in his return from injury, and should see an increase from that number this week.
The Panthers have struggled to contain tight ends this season, allowing four touchdowns to the position through four games. That vulnerability gives Goedert a favorable matchup, even with Philadelphia missing two of its biggest offensive stars.
BET: 0.5 units to win 1.6 units.
Pat Freiermuth, TE - Pittsburgh Steelers (+350, BetMGM), (25% Novig)
Injuries continue to pile up in the Steelers’ wide receiver room, with Michael Pittman still on IR and Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek expected to miss at least another week. Now, DK Metcalf has also landed on the injury report with a late-week illness, potentially leaving Pittsburgh even thinner at the position.
Despite the mounting injuries, Aaron Rodgers continues to play some of his best football in years, throwing three touchdown passes for the third consecutive game last week against the Colts.
One of the biggest beneficiaries has been Pat Freiermuth, who hauled in two of those touchdown passes. The tight end also posted a season-high 23.3% target share in the game and now leads the Steelers with four touchdowns and five red-zone targets.
Freiermuth gets another favorable opportunity this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has struggled to contain tight ends, allowing 301 receiving yards and three touchdowns to the position through five games.
BET: 0.5 units to win 1.75 units.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Bet
Najee Harris, RB - New York Giants (+2000, Bet365), (7% Novig)
There are rumors swirling around New York that Cam Skattebo is in jeopardy of losing touches due to his fumbling issues. While I don't quite buy that and am fully a Skattebo backer this week thanks to his elite matchup, there is an intriguing trend that does make Najee Harris an intriguing option in touchdown markets this week.
Over the past two weeks, Harris has out-touched Skattebo 4-to-2 in the red zone. He hasn't converted any of those touches into a score just yet, but the usage is appealing, especially at these longshot odds.
The most intriguing part is the matchup against New Orleans. They have been absolutely gashed on the ground this season, allowing a league-high 667 yards and 10 touchdowns through five games to opposing running backs. The 10 rushing touchdowns allowed lead the league by two over the Packers and are five more than teams allowing the third-most rushing TDs.
BET: 0.1 units to win 2.0 units.
