College Football Betting Picks - Expert Predictions, CFB Picks Against the Spread: Week 7

October 16, 2026

Mike's Week 6 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, October 10, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.

It was a rough week last week as I lost more points, but there are a lot of spots I like this week. It could be really good or really bad. Betting on sports is not for the faint of heart.

I only pick FBS vs. FBS games. The lines are too hard to nail down involving FCS teams, and many casinos/betting sites don't carry them anyway. If you have questions about those games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.

There are only three of those this week, and there are much better spots to go with FBS games. I'm not messing with any of the FCS ones. We have 49 FBS vs. FBS games on Saturday, and we've got some good ones with nearly everyone in conference play.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 7

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.

I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.

If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.

We'll try to get back on the winning side of things this week. We've got a few really good spots.

(4) Ohio State (-3.5) at (5) Indiana

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Okay, hear me out. What if Nebraska and Northwestern are good teams? Does your opinion of Indiana change? Ohio State has played one good team, and they blew a 20-point fourth-quarter lead.

Yes, Indiana is not the exact same as last year, but the coaching staff is. They have won 22 in a row for a reason.

Pick: Indiana +3.5

Florida at (7) Texas (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

It can't happen again, can it? Can it? I doubt it, but this is still too high.

Pick: Florida +10.5

(16) Mississippi State at (22) LSU (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Oh man, Kamario Taylor, even at 80%, is better than Sam Leavitt. The LSU defense is much better, but not this much better. Good grief.

Watch the status of Taylor for this game. If he is ruled out, I'm backing way off of this and will likely flip to LSU with a lower bet.

Pick: Mississippi State +14.5

Virginia at (24) SMU (-9.5) 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

In any decently run universe, SMU would not be ranked. SMU has only beaten one FBS team by 10 points. They beat Missouri State -- in Dallas, mind you -- by exactly 10 points.

I don't like how undisciplined Virginia is, but asking SMU to beat anyone by 10 is a chore right now.

Pick: Virginia +9.5

(25) Northwestern (-7.5) at Michigan State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Aidan Chiles back in East Lansing after how they did him last year? Oh man, this is going to be fun...if you're wearing purple.

Unbalanced Fly Sweep

Northwestern’s Wing-T Package is COMPELLING ? https://t.co/EYQI0CrDKt

— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) October 10, 2026

Have you seen those formations that Chip Kelly is coming up with? Northwestern ran a weird version of the old wing-T offense and something that looked like a cover 2 on offense in the Ball State game. Northwestern is FUN!

I despise NBC for putting this on Peacock.

Pick: Northwestern -7.5

Cincinnati at West Virginia (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

It's a party in Morgantown. No defense required.

Pick: West Virginia -1.5

Kansas at Kansas State (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Sunflower Showdown may be a dumb name for a rivalry, but these two teams hate each other almost as much as Kansas and Missouri do. These teams have played every year since 1911.

Kansas hasn't won a game in this series since 2008. They have only four wins since 1993.

The bottom has dropped out of this line. It opened at -10 for the Wildcats. Kansas hanging with Utah for three quarters in Salt Lake City caused the drop. I thought that Kansas would end the streak when Jalon Daniels was there. How can they do it now?

Pick: Kansas State -4.5

Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Boston College 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I don't trust this line at all. Boston College has a solid defense, and both teams like to run the ball. I have a sinking feeling that this may be a 7-point game, but I'll just lower the bet.

Pick: Boston College +6.5

Florida Atlantic at Army (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

FAU beat Navy because the Middies couldn't cover Easton Messer and Kelby Vaisin. I have a feeling that Army will have the same issues.

Pick: Florida Atlantic +2.5

Ball State at Bowling Green (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Ball State has been a disaster this year. So has Bowling Green, but to a lesser extent.

Pick: Bowling Green -6.5

Georgia State at James Madison (-11.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Dukes should be back on track this week. They always struggle in Statesboro.

Pick: James Madison -11.5

Rutgers at Maryland (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Malik Washington has not played well, even with Chris Durr Jr. out there catching passes. This feels like an overcorrection for Maryland getting spanked by Ohio State and Nebraska.

Pick: Maryland -4.5

Charlotte at Temple (-21.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Oh man, Temple isn't built to cover spreads like this. I hate the half, but Charlotte may be the worst FBS team.

Pick: Temple -21.5

Massachusetts at Buffalo (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Wow, Buffalo beats Toledo, and this is what happens? Pop Watson and Aedan McCarthy are both expected to miss this game. Logan Inagawa was a perfect 6-for-6 passing last week after coming in for McCarthy. I don't know about this...

Pick: Massachusetts +6.5

Western Michigan (-6.5) at Central Michigan

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This feels easy, but only one game in the last four years has been decided by more than three points. I don't like the spread, but man, Angel Flores has struggled this year.

Pick: Western Michigan -6.5

Auburn at (1) Georgia (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Auburn's defense has been good, but Georgia looks REALLY good.

Pick: Georgia -20.5

(6) Alabama (-8.5) at (14) Tennessee

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Tennessee's offense has had trouble moving the ball against Arkansas and Auburn. That's not good when facing a guy like Keelon Russell.

Pick: Alabama -8.5

(13) Missouri at (9) Mississippi (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

There are a lot of storylines in this one. Austin Simmons facing his former team. Kewan Lacy facing his former team. Missouri finally looking to prove that they are near the top of the conference.

I picked Missouri outright in pick em, but I may back off of that a little. Ole Miss is different with a healthy Kewan Lacy. The issue is that they can't stop Jamal Roberts.

Jamal Roberts is the third SEC running back in the past 20 years with consecutive 200-yard rushing games against FBS teams.

He's in good company. The others? Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette ? https://t.co/Cb7e6qJpJN

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) October 10, 2026

You guys remember Jadan Baugh against Ole Miss, right?

Pick: Missouri +5.5

Arizona State at (10) Texas Tech (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I liked this a lot better when it was under two touchdowns. The only teams that Texas Tech has done what they were expected to do against were Sam Houston and Colorado. That doesn't inspire confidence.

However, the dismissal of Thomas Castellanos and the injury to Cameron Dickey might actually streamline this offense. There is a chance that Tech rolls here, but I'm not going to bet on it until I see something out of this offense.

Pick: Arizona State +14.5

Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Georgia Tech beat Duke last week, but star RB Justice Haynes is doubtful for the Techmo Bowl. That is literally the only reason I was afraid of this.

Pick: Virginia Tech -9.5

North Carolina at Duke (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Normally I would say toss them a basketball, but then I remembered that Nate Sheppard doesn't play basketball. He may not play football in this one either. Keep an eye on the status of Sheppard. If he misses this game, I'm flipping to Carolina with 1 confidence point.

Pick: Duke -3.5

Penn State at Michigan (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Do you want to know why preseason polls are stupid? This looked like a marquee game in August. Now I'm not even sure that the fans care...

Pick: Michigan -6.5

Northern Illinois at Wyoming (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

They don't have mountains in the MAC. This is going to be a hell of a shock for NIU.

Pick: Wyoming -7.5

UNLV (-1.5) at Air Force

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

UNLV chooses not to pass most of the time. We don't know if Air Force can pass with Liam Szarka out. The Falcons attempted just one pass last week. It was on the first drive.

Pick: UNLV -1.5

Toledo (-6.5) at Eastern Michigan

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Toledo burned us last week. Is Buffalo really that much better than they were in Week 2? Eastern Michigan looks worse since Week 2. I don't trust Toledo much anymore, but I trust EMU less.

Pick: Toledo -6.5

Akron at Miami (OH) (-9.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Akron has been hanging around lately. This feels off.

Pick: Akron +9.5

Tulsa (-4.5) at Rice

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This line has jumped since the opening and is still steadily rising. Rice got beaten handily by an East Carolina team that lost by two scores in overtime to UAB on Thursday night.

I've been talking about backing off on Tulsa, but this isn't the place to do it.

Pick: Tulsa -4.5

Troy at Louisiana (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Cajuns just lost their ninth straight to Louisiana Tech, and Troy lit up Southern Miss last week. I feel good about Goose Crowder here.

Pick: Troy +3.5

Washington State at Oregon State (-17.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This won't be the Pac-12 Championship in 2026. One of these teams will be in it, at least.

Pick: Oregon State -17.5

Florida State at (3) Miami (FL)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Hey, remember when this game used to mean something? If you like the Miami side, Hard Rock still has it at the opening line (-16.5).

Pick: Miami (FL) -21.5

Arkansas at Vanderbilt (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is for last place in the SEC. I think we already know who that is.

Pick: Vanderbilt -6.5

TCU at Baylor (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The ESPN announcers calling the Baylor vs TCU game are refusing to call it the Blue Bonnet Battle and are instead referring to the game as the name fans refer to it as “The Revivalry”..

College Football is so back!!

https://t.co/hnA5W62iTB

— Sherman Young Jr. (@ShermStu_2) October 18, 2025

This may have seemed like something insignificant at the time, but it's the only thing ESPN has done right in the last year. This is the Revivalry. It always has been and always will be.

You know what else it will be? This should be a really good game...for DJ Lagway, at least.

Pick: Baylor -6.5

Kent State at South Florida (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Whoever approved this on the USF side is so fired. Whoever pulled this off for Kent is a genius. I wouldn't mind going to Tampa in the middle of October.

As bad as Kent is, I have a really hard time trusting the USF offense. If not now, then when?

Pick: South Florida -20.5

Nevada at North Dakota State (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Nevada taking the belt to UTEP doesn't suddenly make them a good team. UTEP hasn't been good since Aaron Jones was there.

Ugh, I don't like that half. The Bison at home, though...it's a thing.

Pick: North Dakota State -14.5

Arkansas State (-6.5) at Southern Mississippi

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

FanDuel is the only place that I've seen this still at 6.5. It's up to -7 across the board. Take the place with the least juice. That half is usually a deterrent, but not here. This version of Southern Miss is not a good one.

Pick: Arkansas State -6.5

(2) Notre Dame (-10.5) at (8) BYU

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I expect a Notre Dame win, but I don't expect BYU to lay down. This feels high, especially in Provo.

Pick: BYU +10.5

Wisconsin at (12) UCLA (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I was hoping that the line wouldn't fall this far. The hard truth is that we don't have much of an idea what UCLA will look like without Nico Iamaleava. Wayne Knight is going to be featured heavily, but Wisconsin's run defense has been solid.

I feel like Wisconsin is put together enough to win a game like this in 2026, but I don't feel good about it.

Pick: Wisconsin +2.5

(15) Kentucky at Oklahoma (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

If Brent Venables lets Ben Arbuckle run the offense that he wants, Oklahoma wins this by a touchdown or two. If not, this is a very losable game. I think Venables learned his lesson.

Pick: Oklahoma -6.5

(18) Oklahoma State at (20) Houston (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

? Stripe Out ⚪️

Cowboy Nation, we’re striping out TDECU Stadium this weekend in Houston.

Check the map, find your section, and wear the right color. Let’s turn Houston orange and white. https://t.co/c1tTVgMWgb

— OKSTProbs (@OKSTProbs) October 12, 2026

Houston put on a show in Manhattan last week. Oklahoma State fans put on a show on X. I feel like that carries over. I also feel like Oklahoma State is finally hitting stride.

Pick: Oklahoma State +4.5

Louisville (-14.5) at Syracuse 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I hate that half, especially in the Loud House. The Syracuse defense has been surprisingly good. It will be either Steve Angeli or Malachi Nelson at quarterback. It won't be Amari Odom, who has been the best in Orange this year.

I don't really want any part of this one. However, if the turnover problems aren't fixed for the Orange, Louisville will make them pay.

Pick: Louisville -14.5

Navy at UTSA (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Relax, guys. It's Navy, not Army.

Pick: UTSA -6.5

Louisiana Tech (-15.5) at Louisiana-Monroe

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

If this is where the Warhawks are, maybe the Sun Belt should be fired into the sun.

Pick: Louisiana Tech -15.5

San Jose State (-7.5) at UTEP

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The Spartans finally get to look like a real team this week.

Pick: San Jose State -7.5

Ohio (-15.5) at Sacramento State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I'm surprised the line isn't higher. All of the juice on the Hornets suggests that it should be. That's good enough for me.

Pick: Ohio -15.5

(11) Utah (-15.5) at Colorado

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Rumble in the Rockies won't be much of a game this year. I do not doubt that Colorado is worse than Kansas.

Pick: Utah -15.5

(21) Wake Forest (-9.5) at California

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I don't care who's starting at quarterback for Cal. It could be Jared Goff coming back for his final year of eligibility.

Pick: Wake Forest -9.5

Fresno State (-7.5) at San Diego State 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The trophy San Diego State and Fresno State play for - the Old Oil Can. https://t.co/9wjlTEZdm1

— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) November 26, 2023

We are entering Trophy game season, and this is a sweet one. Fresno hasn't had the Oil Can since 2022. This is the year they get it back.

Pick: Fresno State -7.5

New Mexico (-14.5) at Hawaii

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

With the New Mexico defense, this is possible. I really don't like that half, though.

Pick: New Mexico -14.5

Nebraska at Oregon (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Dylan Raiola experiment at Oregon might be done. Oregon isn't saying who is starting, only that it's not Dante Moore.

Dante Moore is out.

The "nation’s two best third-down defenses."

So which offense can stay on the field?

Nebraska converts 52% of its 3rd downs, 9th Nationally. Against the defending champs: 10 of 19.

Oregon ranks 64th Nationally at 42%. In B1G play with Raiola/Thomas, only 29%.

Colandrea has turned 12 third downs into first downs with his legs alone.

Oregon’s quarterbacks have done it zero times.

Without Moore, it’s Raiola, Thomas, or Akili Smith Jr. Against FBS defenses this year, those QBs are 6 of 22 on third down. Raiola went 0 for 8 against UCLA.

Adjusted for everything, run 10 third downs Saturday night and Nebraska moves the chains about 4 times. Oregon, about 2.

That’s two extra drives. In a game between two elite defenses, that’s the game.

Below are opponent-adjusted 3rd down conversion expectations for Saturday's game.

Stay on the field. Win the night. ☠️ #GBR

— ?????????? ????? ☠️ (@BlackshirtMedia) October 15, 2026

It looks like it doesn't matter. Those are damning stats for the Ducks. The unpopular opinion is that Nebraska's defense is actually good this year. Their run defense is elite. I think I like Nebraska outright, no matter who starts for the Ducks.

Pick: Nebraska +7.5

I somehow ended up with 25 three-point picks for the third consecutive week. I only have two minimum bets, so I feel good about a lot of this week. Let's win some money!

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