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The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season. Kipp's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.
Welcome back to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season! For anyone who isn't familiar, each week we give you our recommended Survivor Pool picks to target and also avoid for 2026 Survivor leagues.
This week I'm pinch-hitting on this feature for our friend Kevin Tompkins -- kind of like the backup quarterback coming off the bench.
Our top pick last week was Dallas, which clearly let us and large portions of pools down. That being said, if you happened to take the Bengals, who were our second option last week, you have advanced to yet another week. This week, we hope to get back to going 2-for-2 on selections!
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Win Probabilities For Week 6
Before jumping into the picks for Week 6, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with the Vegas data for each NFL matchup this week.
| TEAM | ML ODDS | Implied Prob | De-Vig Prob |
| LAR | -850 | 89.47% | 85.79% |
| KC | -500 | 83.33% | 80.00% |
| SF | -440 | 81.48% | 78.19% |
| NE | -340 | 77.27% | 74.09% |
| IND | -325 | 76.47% | 73.35% |
| BUF | -270 | 72.97% | 70.02% |
| BAL | -238 | 70.41% | 67.50% |
| CHI | -162 | 61.83% | 59.34% |
| SEA | -148 | 59.68% | 57.21% |
| JAX | -148 | 59.68% | 57.21% |
| PIT | -135 | 57.45% | 55.14% |
| GB | -122 | 54.95% | 52.61% |
| PHI | -115 | 53.49% | 51.08% |
| NO | -115 | 53.49% | 51.08% |
| CAR | -105 | 51.22% | 48.92% |
| NYG | -105 | 51.22% | 48.92% |
| DAL | 102 | 49.50% | 47.39% |
| TB | 114 | 46.73% | 44.86% |
| DEN | 124 | 44.64% | 42.79% |
| HOU | 124 | 44.64% | 42.79% |
| ATL | 136 | 42.37% | 40.66% |
| CLE | 195 | 33.90% | 32.50% |
| LV | 220 | 31.25% | 29.98% |
| TEN | 260 | 27.78% | 26.65% |
| NYJ | 270 | 27.03% | 25.91% |
| WAS | 340 | 22.73% | 21.81% |
| LAC | 380 | 20.83% | 20.00% |
| ARI | 575 | 14.81% | 14.21% |
We can extrapolate the implied winning percentage from Vegas odds, and then remove the vig (or the upcharge that is built into the price by the books) to get a true implied win probability. You can de-vig any line using our new No-Vig Calculator right here! Check it out; it's super cool and useful.
Now, let's look at the Survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 6.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 6
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
I do not usually love picking divisional games for Survivor, but this is a tough week with several matchups that are not so clear-cut. Given these circumstances, I am willing to take a rising Patriots team at home against an inferior opponent in the Jets.
The Patriots are coming off a huge 45-17 home victory against a respectable Las Vegas Raiders team and should be able to handle the Jets. The Patriots have been strong offensively, averaging over 372 yards of total offense per game, while the Jets have struggled to the tune of averaging just 284 yards per game.
Defensively, both teams have been solid, each ranking inside the top 10 in points allowed. While this game could be lower scoring, I do think New England gets the edge here, given the potency of its offense.
The Patriots have also won each of the previous three meetings against the Jets and have also won four of the last six contests. With few slam-dunk options on the board this week, I personally will be riding with New England as one of my two selections.
26-34 for 374 yards and 5 total TDs for @DrakeMaye2 today 👀 @FedEx https://t.co/7L2dnJWHYj
— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2026
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders
My second selection this week is going to be the 49ers, who get a home matchup against the Washington Commanders. The 49ers have started the season hot and are now 5-0 after coming off a 32-29 victory at division-rival Seattle.
Washington has its starting quarterback, Jayden Daniels, back in the mix, but this matchup at San Francisco will prove to be tough. The 49ers have been strong both offensively and defensively, which is why they have a major edge here.
Overall, the 49ers rank in the top five in both points scored and points allowed. Additionally, they rank inside the top 10 in terms of total yards and total yards allowed.
Meanwhile, Washington has struggled mightily on defense, allowing nearly 30 points per game and over 350 total yards of offense. The Commanders have not been that much better on offense, either, scoring just 23 points per game while posting 327 yards of total offense.
San Francisco should be able to handle the Commanders rather comfortably in this game given these breakdowns.
GEORGE. KITTLE.
DENvsSF on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/fynYAzwRMn— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2026
Also Consider Using
- Los Angeles Rams (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 6
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
While I do think the Bills will ultimately win this game, I do not want to use them in this spot coming off a Monday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Plus, the Raiders have been rather frisky this season despite the blowout loss to the Patriots in Week 5.
The Bills have some problems defensively, which is why I am not ready to back them in this spot. They are allowing over 28 points per game, backed by a defense that is allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game and over 108 rushing yards per game.
If they were going against a weaker offense, I would feel safer, but the Raiders have been solid thus far. Overall, they are scoring an average of over 26 points per game and are putting up an average of over 335 total yards of offense per game.
The Bills also just finished a high-scoring thriller on Monday night, so they will have less rest than a typical week. This is a spot where I think the Bills will likely win, but there will be better spots to use them down the stretch as long as we can survive that long.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
This is another matchup where I think the Colts SHOULD handle business, but I am not willing to back them in a divisional matchup in this one. The Titans have proved to be a frisky team, albeit they are 0-5.
Overall, they have lost three of their five games by one possession, and that is a scenario I could see play out in this matchup as well. The Colts defense has also been brutal to start the season, which is why I cannot trust them.
The Colts have allowed an average of nearly 28 points per game and nearly 270 passing yards per game. Additionally, they allow an average of nearly 130 rushing yards per game. Quite frankly, they cannot stop anyone.
It is hard for me to back a team when the opposing offense is never really out of the game. While the Colts have won six straight against Tennessee, four of these matchups were decided by one possession.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Yes, Baltimore looked pretty good against the Falcons on Sunday night, but I am not willing to back it in a divisional matchup that takes place on the road, especially if Lamar Jackson is not ready to return for the game.
Cleveland has also been sneaky good this season and now sits at 3-2 through its first five games. While it did lose to the Jets in Week 5, the game was close throughout and had a lot of rainy weather to contend with.
The Browns defense has also been somewhat respectable, allowing under 23 points per game. Additionally, Cleveland has won two of the previous five matchups against the Ravens.
Quinshon Judkins gives Cleveland the lead!
@PITvsCLE on Prime Video
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/tsQEzhDldc— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2026
Also Consider Fading
- Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Houston Texans - London Game)
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