NFL Best Bets for Week 6: Novig Sports Prediction Markets

October 15, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 6 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

Oh man, there's nothing quite like the rush of breaking down an NFL slate looking for betting angles! I suppose the feeling of satisfaction that you get when that bet hits is pretty darn good, too. But I enjoy the process just as much as the result. I've made an important tweak to my game total model this week that I think has located two winners to go along with a couple of strong spots for home teams against the spread and on the moneyline.

I couldn't think of a better week to introduce NFL bettors to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets for Week 6 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator right here, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

NFL Underdog Moneyline Picks

All odds listed are from NoVig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

New York Giants (49%) vs. New Orleans Saints

So let me get this straight. The Giants are 3-1-1 on the season, at home, and still underdogs against a team that is 1-4 and dropped three in a row?

Make it make sense! New York's lone loss this year was to the Rams, in a game where Jaxson Dart was injured in the first quarter and a cold Jameis Winston was forced into duty.

Isaiah Likely crosses the plane for another Giants TD

@NYGvsWAS on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/H4QnwWuBJN

— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2026

Well, Jameis is heating up, and he has two really good weapons at his disposal in Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely. Cam Skattebo is keeping the run game alive, too, with some help from Najee Harris.

Meanwhile, the Saints have been getting steamrolled on defense. They also have no running game whatsoever, and have been forced to throw the ball a ton just to stay in games.

I think New York is a better all-around football team, and I'm backing them to win here.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

NFL Favorite Picks Against the Spread

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans (52%) 

The Jags pulled it out last week in London, but needed a last-second kick return and field goal to do so. I'm not reading into that game too much, as those international games always get funky (and perhaps the Eagles aren't all that bad after all).

They failed to cover the spread, but did move to 4-1 and continue to look like a Super Bowl contender in the AFC.

They'll be tested this week by Houston, who has a top defense and got Nico Collins back last week. They also added Marvin Harrison Jr. in a trade with Arizona to give C.J. Stroud another weapon.

But the Houston rush offense has been putrid, and now David Montgomery is hurt. Jacksonville is the more complete team, with better offensive and defensive metrics this year. I have them favored by six in my projections, so getting them at only -2.5 at home is a number that I love to see.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive $25 in trade credits when you deposit $10.

You also get a free YEAR of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NFL Game Totals

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 39.5 points (52%)

This is an incredibly low total for two teams that "should" have potent offenses. The Panthers have scored 30 or more points in three of their four games this season, and allowed teams like Chicago (59) and Detroit (26) to roll up a ton of yardage and points.

Their 34-3 win over the Falcons was a weird one, as Atlanta had Cooper Rush at QB and turned the ball over a bunch. They also went under this number in their loss to Cleveland (21-18), but moved the ball all game long and constantly settled for field goals.

I'm not sure they can stop the Eagles this week. I think only the Eagles can stop themselves! Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith might be returning for Philly to boost their offense. If the Eagles can convert their red zone trips, I think this game can get over this total in a hurry, as Carolina is playing at the third-fastest pace in the league with the third-highest neutral pass rate as well.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons UNDER 51.5 points (52%)

If the Philly-Carolina game is way too low, then I think this game total is set just as unreasonably high. Both of these totals stand out as outliers when you consider most totals usually reside in the 43 to 46 point range.

I know the Falcons just went over this number last week against Baltimore, but it took an overtime period for that to happen. They also went over against the Saints, who play fast and don't play any defense whatsoever.

Chicago has gone under this number in four straight games. They blew the doors off Carolina in the opener, but have been in some low-scoring games since. Caleb Williams' return does likely elevate the offense, but it doesn't change the fact that they are a run-first football team.

In fact, these teams are 30th (Chicago) and 32nd (Atlanta) in neutral pass rate. These are running football teams with respectable defenses. I don't think this game shoots out; I think it goes way under this total with room to spare.

Good luck if you're tailing these bets, and thanks for reading!

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