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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 7. Picks with confidence points for Week 6 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
Week 6 was a little better, but I was the world's worst fan since I picked Texas. Many others did as well with high confidence since "Cright14" led the group with 42 points this week. "Let's See Brucies" scored 41 points. "AJAXRotoballer" got 40 points this week. Those were the only three entries with 40 points. Only six more entries hit 35 points or better.
"Cright14" took over first place in the group with their big week at 236 points. "Rad" and "Dr.SteveBrule" are tied for second place with 229 points. The seven-point lead at the top is a season best. Only seven entries are within 10 points of first place.
We are halfway through the season, and the projected group winner is well behind last year's pace. It is still pretty close overall, with only 28 points separating first place from 30th.
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College Football Pick'em Overview.
This article is about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. This feels like a tough week. There are matchups between ranked teams. The MAC game on there is impossible. We have to pick UCLA without Nico Iamaleava. This is going to be tough!
(1) Indiana over Ohio State
The line opened even, but has tilted 3.5 points in favor of Ohio State after Indiana's close call in Lincoln last week. Hear me out...what if Nebraska is actually a good team? They hadn't played anyone until Indiana, but they beat opponents soundly, which is something they haven't done in recent years.
Indiana's secondary isn't nearly as strong as last year, so Jeremiah Smith could be in for a monster game. Texas elected to let Smith do whatever he wanted and not let anyone else beat them. It almost didn't work.
Maryland tried the opposite. They ran schemes so that Smith was rarely in single coverage. Smith didn't have a huge game, but Julian Sayin still did. Ohio State has so many ways to beat you.
However, this is the defending national champions, and the game is at home. With the public heavy on Indiana (81%), I'll try to sneak a point. This is a winnable game for the Hoosiers.
Right now, Vegas is getting 71% of the bets on Ohio State. I don't expect the line to close there. The sharps haven't spoken yet.
(2) UNLV over Air Force
I don't trust this one at all. Air Force won a game by 21 points last week and never completed a pass. They attempted one pass in the first quarter and decided it was so bad that they would just run and play defense.
UNLV did mostly the same against North Dakota State. The Rebels only had 77 yards passing. UNLV's run defense had it rough against Memphis, but looking back now, holding Memphis to 195 rushing yards is pretty good.
Air Force quarterback Liam Szarka is out for the season with a lower leg injury. Some have speculated that it was because he called out Army after beating Navy on October 3.
Whatever the case, Evan Medders is going to have his hands full. UNLV is a more polished product, and they have a QB who can run the option in practice.
(3) Wisconsin over UCLA
UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava
Unfortunately, Nico Iamaleava is out for the season after suffering a left knee injury.
Video shows significant valgus force to the knee, raising major concern for an ACL and possible MCL injury +/- meniscus involvement.
Timeline depends on severity: ACL tears can take~6–12 months or longer before return to sport.
— Maddox McCloud, PT, DPT (@MaddoxMcCloudPT) October 12, 2026
Not to mention that Oregon's Bear Alexander punched Nico in the head after he blew out his knee. When Iamaleava left the game, I thought it was because of Bear. That would have meant just a possible concussion. The prognosis was much worse. He's done for the year with a knee injury.
As far as Alexander, I don't think that he was "aiming" for the head, but punching at the ball when a guy is already on the ground is ill-advised. He's down. Nothing good can come from it.
UCLA hasn't named a new starter for the rest of the year. Cal-Poly transfer Ty Dieffenbach was serviceable against Oregon. Nico's younger brother, Madden, has looked pretty good when he has played this year.
I'm not sure it will matter here. This is not last year's Wisconsin team. Colton Joseph can complete passes downfield. Tyrell Henry can catch them. They have a two-headed RB in Darrion Dupree and Abu Sama III (three if you count Joseph running at QB).
UCLA forced seven turnovers last week and still almost lost to Oregon with a third-string quarterback. This is going to be a rough-and-tumble game, which favors Wisconsin as much as it does UCLA.
(4) Oklahoma State over Houston
This is going to be a low-key great quarterback matchup between Drew Mestemaker and Conner Weigman. I have Oklahoma State winning because Weigman is more of a one-man gang.
Drew Mestemaker’s tape against Oregon is BLOWING AWAY NFL scouts for a reason.
One NFL scout reportedly thought Mestemaker put some “Top-10” overall pick plays on film.
The Oklahoma State QB’s development is going to be SPECIAL to watch ?? https://t.co/jVBaKaS0E4
— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) September 15, 2026
Re'Shaun Sanford II has looked good in the backfield lately, and Amare Thomas is a star, but Caleb Hawkins led FBS in rushing touchdowns as a freshman. Wyatt Young and Justin Bowick are matchup nightmares.
Oklahoma State losing to Tulsa in the opener has thrown off the lines in every game since. This is not the same team that lost to Tulsa. They have grown up a lot in the last six weeks.
(5) Toledo over Eastern Michigan
Toledo got smoked by what had been a dreadful Buffalo team for the first month of the season. Hell yeah, I'm nervous! Eastern Michigan's Noah Kim has turned the ball over a lot lately, so I'm leaning Toledo.
Toledo's ability to run the ball and a quarterback who doesn't make mistakes should be enough to win this.
(6) Notre Dame over BYU
I have a feeling that BYU might win this, so I'm not putting high confidence points on it. 85% of the public is on the Irish. On paper, this looks like an Irish blowout.
CJ Carr has been outstanding this year. Bear Bachmeier has been good. He threw for 327 yards last week with LJ Martin out, setting a new career high. Which brings me to my second point: BYU is not going to win this game if Bear is the leading rusher. No one stepped up in the absence of Martin against Iowa State last week.
Jonaz Walton looks like the next star for Notre Dame. The true freshman from the Atlanta area has been by far the best Notre Dame back over the last two games. He looks more like Jeremiyah Price than either Aneyas Williams or Nolan James Jr.
That said, this is the biggest game in Provo in a long time. College Gameday will be there (SHOCKER!), which hasn't happened in 17 years. There is a lot more riding on this for BYU.
We've seen how the CFP has treated two-loss Big 12 teams, even when the second loss is in the Conference Championship Game. Notre Dame only has to be in the top 12 of the rankings, and they get in.
(7) Missouri over Mississippi
Kewan Lacy still didn't look fully healthy last week. Trinidad Chambliss has already thrown more interceptions in five games than he did in 13 games last year. Mississippi's defense has been torched by the likes of Louisville, Florida, and LSU. Those teams have a combined seven losses.
I like Chambliss and Lacy a lot, but I haven't seen anything that proves they are better than Austin Simmons or Jamal Roberts. Simmons is going to want to beat the guy who took his job at Mississippi.
There is no animosity there, but you can't tell me that it wouldn't mean the world to Simmons. Ole Miss can be had, and Missouri is only being picked at 24%. I'm going after the points here.
(8) Duke over North Carolina
Duke played a really sloppy game against Georgia Tech last week. Carolina beat a Pitt team with a quarterback making his first start.
I still don't trust the North Carolina offense. Nate Sheppard has been outstanding this year, but what isn't being talked about is how good Walker Eget has been as Duke's quarterback.
He was really good at San Jose State last year, but threw a lot of interceptions. Those have gone away. I'm not sure Carolina can rattle the experienced quarterback enough to push him into the mistakes that would be needed for a Tar Heel win in Durham.
(9) Alabama over Tennessee
Jackson, I hate to do this to you, but Tennessee has only scored 48 points in the last three games combined. The Texas defense, yeah, I get it. Auburn? Sure, they have been pretty good. But Arkansas? Ouch.
That said, this is a rivalry, and the Tennessee defense has been solid. Alabama's had issues earlier in the season. This is a rivalry, so anything can happen. I may move this down. Cigars are at stake!
Reminder: Tennessee and Alabama will both wear their home jersey's for this weekend’s Third Saturday in October game.
First time since the 1970s. The agreement is in place for 2027, too.
https://t.co/qjP7QC5Nb8 https://t.co/nTZ5dXUDmK
— Pete Nakos (@PeteNakos) October 13, 2026
Also, we need more of this in rivalry games.
(10) Oklahoma over Kentucky
I've spent time trashing my team this year because the offensive line has been awful and the run game hasn't been much better. Then came the second half of the Red River Shootout.
The Oklahoma offense still wasn't amazing, but Ben Arbuckle sped up the offense. It worked. Guys didn't have to hold blocks as long. John Mateer was hitting his quick throws. The speed of the offense didn't let Mateer get in his head. He didn't have time.
If Oklahoma operates that kind of offense again, this is a no-brainer. Vegas is HEAVY on Oklahoma. Pick Em users are on Kentucky. I know which side I'm following.
