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We are getting closer and closer to the first pitch of the 2018 MLB season. Spring training is in full swing which means we are right in the thick of draft season. Below you will find our updated head-to-head points league rankings for starting pitchers.
In this article, I will be discussing the updates to our starting pitcher rankings for points leagues - and provide some analysis on each tier. If you have a draft coming up soon, make sure to use all of our rankings for all league types. Regardless of the platform or scoring, we have every set of rankings you would need to draft a championship team.
We have had some movement after late free agency signings and trades. Whether you are like me and wait on pitcher to focus on value you, or your like to stock your rotation with top talent, I will break down all the tiers so you can find the best options for your team.
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Updated Head-to-Head Points League Rankings: Starting Pitchers
UPDATE: Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija rankings were updated on 3/24 based on injury estimates.
Tier 1
There really should be a tier above this with Clayton Kershaw by himself. He is almost always going to be the first pitcher off the board. The only thing you need to really worry about is that troublesome back injury that keeps popping up, but I don’t draft while worrying about injuries. If you draft Kershaw, you know what you will be getting.
Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber slot right in behind him. All are great starters that will contribute to all categories. They will rack up the strikeouts, pitch deep into ballgames and will keep the WHIP down. If you are one that likes to take pitching early, make one of these guys your first or second pick. Depending on the format, Kershaw will go off the board in the mid to late first round, or early second, and the rest of these guys will go in the second round. If you miss out for some reason, don’t worry, there are plenty of options coming up.
Tier 2
I picked Madison Bumgarner to be the ace of my staff in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. I just love the consistent performance he brings to the table. He had a fluke injury last year, but this was the first season since 2011 that Bumgarner didn’t have at least 31 starts in a season. It was also the first time he posted an ERA over 3.00 since 2012. He doesn’t get nearly enough attention out on the west coast. Also, he will only be 28 this season. Plenty of miles left in that arm.
Carlos Martinez had what appeared to be a down year in 2017, but was it really a down year? I had a chance to talk about him at length on the Champions Analysis Podcast when we did our AL and NL Central Preview Mock Draft. For a third straight season, his innings pitched increased and he topped the 200-strikeout threshold for the first time. The problem with Martinez last season was a case of the long ball. Martinez gave up a career-high 27 home runs and was plagued by a bullpen that let him down far too often. The Cardinals bullpen allowed 35% of inherited runners to score last season, tied for fourth-most in the majors.
Robbie Ray was one of my favorite stashes heading into last season, and he came through in a big way. Back to back 200-K seasons but Ray was finally able to limit opponent’s hits. He did have the same amount of strikeouts but in less innings pitched. He even posted a near-identical FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) which shows a pitcher’s ability to limit walks and home runs but increase strikeouts. If the humidor does what it’s supposed to in Arizona, Ray could be looking at a decrease in home runs as well. Except him to build on last season.
Tier 3
This tier includes a couple of my favorite young arms in the game. Aaron Nola and James Paxton also took a step forward in 2017, much like Ray. The only thing holding Paxton back is his health. He has not been able to stay healthy to this point in his career. Last year was a career high with 136 innings pitched, and even then he had injury issues. Command can be an issue at times as well. 15 wild pitches led the league and an increase in walks per nine innings, up from 1.8 in 2016 to 2.4 in 2017. If he could stay healthy, he could catapult into Tier 2.
Nola is winning this offseason just like the Phillies. Not only have they been one of the most active teams, making moves in order to win now, but have signed two of the biggest free agents in Carlos Santana and Jake Arrieta. Nola will now get a chance to learn from former Cy Young winner Arrieta and will not have the pressure of needing to be the ace of a young staff. Nola will be the Opening Day starter, but having the veteran presence of Arrieta could pay huge dividends as Nola will know he has support. A young pitcher trying too hard can cause issues sometimes and while I think Nola has everything needed to be special, the Phillies are ready to win now. More experience in the clubhouse is good for all.
Man, will anyone benefit from a change of scenery more than Gerrit Cole? He went from being the ace of a team looking to rebuild and look towards the future, to the third starter for the defending champion Houston Astros. If you play in a league that takes wins into account, Cole is going to get a lot of those this season. Gone are the days of facing another team's ace (he will now leave that to Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel). He just hasn’t been the same since his breakout 2015 campaign, but a new home, a new team and a chance at a championship can help bring that back.
Tier 4
There is a lot of risk in this tier. The face of this risk, is one of the most intriguing players in all of baseball, Shohei Ohtani, who has been linked to arm problems since he signed with the Angels. We don’t know how much is true, but the Angels have publicly addressed the rumors and even said they were aware of them.
David Price was a mess last season. Not only was he battling injuries, but he was calling out Red Sox Nation and being labeled as a clubhouse nuisance by others. Even though he has been close, he hasn’t had an ERA over 4.00 since 2009 and still hovers right around that K/9 of 9.00. I wouldn’t draft him to be your ace, or even SP2. But he could be a nice bargain for those of you that decide to wait and skip on pitching early.
Michael Fulmer has been very good since being acquired by Detroit in a deal for Yoenis Cespedes. His rookie season was not one anticipated by many, including those in Detroit. Fulmer didn’t have the same success in his sophomore season, which was contributed to a lack of strikeouts. Even though Fulmer increased his innings pitched by 4.1, he saw his strikeouts drop by 18. Elbow surgery cost him the end of the 2017 season, but he should be back. There was no structural damage, but he has had some issues with soreness this spring. Keep an eye on his status while drafting.
Tier 5
One of my favorite values is included in this tier. Garrett Richards has been devalued after two injury-plagued seasons, but I think he will finally bounce back with a healthy 2018. He worked his way back with a few decent outings to close out the campaign last year. He has put an emphasis on refining his curveball. If this guy is available late in your draft, buy in.
Tier 6
Taijuan Walker is another Diamondbacks pitcher who will benefit from changes out west this season. The former top prospect of the Mariners has settled in nicely during his first full season with Arizona. Truthfully, leaving Seattle was best for Walker. There were many comparisons between him and former teammate Felix Hernandez, and that is a lot to live up to. In Arizona, he can just be himself and continue to grow. The best part of being in Arizona is the staff he is surrounded by. He doesn’t need to come up and be the next ace. Another step forward is in order this season.
Tier 7
This tier includes two of my favorite bounce back candidates for 2018. My first bet is on Giants Jeff Samardzija. Even with an awful season, Samardzija still struck out 205 batters. He still has all of the stuff to make hitters swing and miss, he just gave up the third highest hit total in his career. He plays in an excellent hitter’s park, so you have to think his defense let him down some last year. The Giants have added Evan Longoria, Andrew McCutchen and Austin Jackson to help that defense. A healthy team behind Samardzija means a rebound season.
One thing you always heard about the Giants, was their ability to win every other year. If you believe in things like that, then you believe Julio Teheran will also bounce back this season. Since his first full season in 2013, Teheran posted his lowest K/9 and highest BB/9 this past season. He will only be 27 this season, but the biggest question is whether he will be with the Braves all year. Teherans name has been coming up in trade talks for well over a year now. Players like that make me nervous, due to the uncertainty of their situation during the biggest stretch of the season. Regardless, if he gets his home run total down, his ERA could come back to the low three range and could be a great value this late.
Tier 8
I like Vincent Velasquez a lot more than most, but he was one guy I really liked coming up with the Astros. When he is on, he has some of the best pure stuff in the game. Last year was a complete disaster though. He wasn’t missing bats, giving up way too many hits and walking too many. I blame it on injuries, though. You could tell something wasn’t right all season. His K/9 fell from 10.4 to 8.5, which signals to me injuries were to blame. The key to growing as a young starter is finding consistency, whether with your delivery, pitches or routine. You can’t find that when you deal with injuries. If he can stay healthy, the consistency will come.
