RADIO
Todd McGill's Round 4 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 Memorial Tournament. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
This week at Muirfield Village, the PGA Tour's best players have been hit with everything imaginable to throw them off their games. A difficult golf course mixed with every element Mother Nature can unleash has been the story this week in Dublin, Ohio, for the Memorial Tournament. The masterpiece that Jack Nicklaus built never seems to disappoint, and I look forward to getting another exciting finish tomorrow.
Given everything that has transpired over the first three days, from the course to the weather, seeing Scottie Scheffler make a late-round push on moving day to take a one-shot lead is almost predictable at this point. Ball striking has been paramount, as missing greens and having to hit many shots from this hellacious rough can quickly sink rounds. Nine out of 10 players in strokes gained on approach are in the top 20 on the leaderboard to start the final round.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round are also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 50% off using code SMASH. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily!Go Premium, Win More!
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Xander Schauffele continues to claw his way back into the form we saw in 2024, but this week in Dublin has been frustrating. The 31-year-old has made three double-bogeys and ranks nearly dead last in the field in driving accuracy (45.2%). However, he continues to strike his irons well, ranking fourth in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.62).
The caveat here is that while the work off the tee hasn't been great, it has improved over the last three days. And while 2025 hasn't been a great follow-up to last year, Schauffele is still one of the best players in the world. I plan on riding his 25th ranking in round four scoring average (69.38) and see if he can make a run.
Other Options: Scottie Scheffler
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Sepp Straka may have been the darling of Saturday's round after shooting a bogey-free -6 under par, 66. Though he would have likely done a similar thing on Friday without three doubles, two of which were on crucial par-5 scoring holes.
Straka is striking the ball incredibly well with his irons, gaining +5.5 in strokes gained on approach over his last two rounds. He's also having an incredible week on the greens, ranking third in strokes gained putting (+1.41). The 32-year-old has shown great poise this season, and tomorrow shouldn't rattle him if he finds himself toe to toe with Scheffler down the stretch.
Other Options: Justin Thomas
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Russell Henley has been avoiding the same volatility throughout his rounds better than many players near the top of the leaderboard; only seven through the first three days. That may seem like more than we're used to seeing week in and week out on the PGA Tour, Muirfield is not like most Tour stops, as its current 73.565 stroke average would attest to.
Henley is more proof that ball striking solves a ton of problems around this place. He ranks eighth in strokes gained on approach (+1.20) and greens in regulation (63%), while ranking 11th in driving accuracy (71.4%). If the putter can show some life, he should be a useful asset tomorrow.
RUSSELL HENLEY CHIPS IN FOR EAGLE AND THE LEAD! 🔥🤯
📺 NBC & Peacock | @APInv pic.twitter.com/L9Les2YJSY
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) March 9, 2025
Other Options: Keegan Bradley
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Maverick McNealey had a great bogey-free round on Saturday, with a -3 under par 69 to jump into T12. He ranks ninth in the field in strokes gained tee to green (+1.55) and has hit 33 of 54 greens through three rounds. The more skewed stat is in driving accuracy, as the 29-year-old ranks 26th on the week (64.3%), but two of his three rounds have seen him hit over 78% of the short grass.
In an event where a couple under par goes a long way, McNealey is an interesting name to watch tomorrow if he stays on his current trend.
Other Options: Harris English, Rickie Fowler
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Jacob Bridgeman is doing exactly what is needed to succeed at Jack's place: hitting the irons well and making putts. Through the first three rounds, the 25-year-old ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained putting (+1.31) and sixth in strokes gained on approach (+1.57). He's been one of the most consistent players this year on the weekends, and I look for that to continue tomorrow.
A great drive by Jacob Bridgeman paired with a WONDERFUL view of the Utah scenery! 🤩
📺 Golf Channel | @BDChampionship
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 11, 2024
Other Options: Ryan Gerard
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
Win More With RotoBallerWin more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
