Mid-Round Shortstops - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values and Targets

2 years ago by RotoBaller

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2. Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers

3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

4. Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves

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Welcome officially to the 2022 fantasy baseball season! Now that an MLB deal is in place, a lot more fantasy drafts will be taking place -- and we're here as always to guide you through it. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players with upside that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to start taking a risk or two on a variety of different players, including emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even talented players who may have some playing time concerns. The early rounds are critical and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can absolutely make or break your roster as those picks are going to make up roughly half of your starting lineup.

Today, we're looking at some middle-round shortstops for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a mid-round draft target that you're going to want to prioritize? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2022 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all of our in-depth 2022 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2022 Draft Kit.

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Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins middle infielder Jorge Polanco ended his season with solid numbers after struggling out of the gate. He hit .207 with one home run during the first month but finished with a .269 batting average, 33 HRs, 98 RBI, 97 runs, and 11 SBs over 152 games. He didn't walk much with a 7.0 BB% but didn't strike out very often either, with an 18.3 K%. Polanco posted the highest HR/FB rate of his career (15.8%), with his previous high of 9.6%, and hit the ball in the air more frequently than his rough 2020, but not much more than 2019. He smashed 18 of his home runs in the final two months of the season, thanks to a big spike in his barrels- 13% and 14.9% in August and September, respectively.

His expected batting averages throughout his career signal he's more of the .269 hitter he showed this past season rather than the .295 hitter of two seasons ago. And his power surge late in the season is something he's never shown before and doesn't look sustainable. However, he should still total at least 25 HRs and will hit in the middle of a strong lineup, providing an abundance of runs and RBI. The 11 steals are a good sign, and he should manage double-digit steals again with his 73rd percentile sprint speed. He's undervalued as a second baseman at his ADP of 86 and should provide more than Tommy Edman, who's going around pick 80.

--Spencer Seguin - RotoBaller

Javier Baez, Detroit Tigers

New Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez enjoyed a quality season during the 2021 campaign. Dealt by the Chicago Cubs to the New York Mets at the trade deadline in a deal with pitcher Trevor Williams for prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, Baez hit .265 with a .319 on-base percentage, 31 home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 547 plate appearances split between the two clubs. The infielder also collected 82 RBI, though just 22 of those came with the Mets. He has a chance to post his first 100-RBI season since the 2018 season hitting near the top of what should be a much-improved Tigers lineup that will also feature Jeimer Candelario, Robbie Grossman, Akil Baddoo, Eric Haase, and eventually Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene.

A move to Comerica Park shouldn't hurt Baez too much from a power standpoint either. In the last three seasons, the veteran has hit a combined 68 home runs. His expected home runs at Comerica Park during that span would've been 58. Another year with at least 23 home runs and at least 10 stolen bases, something Baez has done in his last four full seasons, seems all but a certainty at this point. Baez's ADP per NFBC is at 67 right now. Hitting near the top of a quality lineup, the veteran could easily outperform that draft position

-- Ben Rosener - RotoBaller

Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

Witt Jr. was ranked by Rotoballer as the third-best prospect in the 2019 amateur draft — a very strong draft class — and he's only improved his standing since that time. The young shortstop has made huge strides in his game despite an unconventional development path that saw him open his career in Rookie ball, miss the next year due to COVID-19 restrictions, and then jump immediately to Double-A while skipping over A-ball entirely in 2021. Witt Jr. split last year between Double-A and Triple-A and collectively hit 33 home runs and stole 29 bases in his first full pro season at the age of 21 — good for a 143 wRC+.

The young hitter has plus raw power but he doesn't sell out to hit home runs. He uses the whole field effectively and has good opposite-field power. The only real knock on Witt Jr. is that he can be a little too aggressive at times and tries to do too much but that should improve as he continues to mature as a hitter. He has a good shot at opening 2022 as the Royals' starting shortstop and could be a 20-20 (HR-SB) player in his rookie season. With an ADP of 90, he possesses excellent value in that range and could easily outperform other shortstops ranked ahead of him such as Trevor Story and Javier Baez

-- Marc Hulet - RotoBaller

Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves

With elite speed in the top 10% in all of baseball in 2020, Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson was considered a 25-20 threat heading into 2021. While he did manage to hit a career-high 27 home runs with 88 RBI in 2021, he fell short in the stolen base category. He only swiped nine bases despite posting a sprint speed in the top 18% of MLB. Coming off a shortened 2020 campaign in which he put up a solid .274/.345.464 slash line, Swanson also regressed with a .248/.311/.449 slash line in 2021. His overall barrel rate and exit velocity remained consistent with his 2020 numbers. He even saw a notable decrease in his strikeout rate and an increase in his hard-hit rate. However, Swanson's line drive rate plummeted over seven percent in 2021. In addition, he posted the lowest walk rate (8%) of his career. Both declines likely led to these lower 2021 ratios. Looking ahead to 2022, Swanson's 2021 metrics would not suggest any regression in the power department. The Braves' formidable lineup will also continue to present Swanson with ample RBI opportunities, provided he is hitting in the middle-to-lower part of the batting order. Of course, Swanson has yet to put up more than 10 stolen bases in any given season.

With 2021 being his seventh campaign, the chance of Swanson (28-years old on Opening Day) of ever putting up a 20-20 season is unlikely, even with excellent sprint speed. At this point, Swanson is who he is; namely, a solid shortstop who can contribute in three or four offensive categories and serve as a utility bat or middle infielder in mixed leagues once the top-15 shortstops are off the board. Managers selecting Swanson in the middle rounds at his ADP of 126 should expect 20-25 HR, 80-90 RBI, a modest 5-10 steals, and a batting average and on-base percentage which should positively regress closer to his career numbers of .249 and .319, respectively.

-- Nick Ritrivi - RotoBaller

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