MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/23/2025)

September 23, 2025

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/23/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Trent Grisham, Mickey Moniak, Eugenio Suarez and Isaac Paredes.

We have 15 games this Tuesday in MLB. What better day for a home run article than "Dinger Tuesday?" With the NFL season full steam ahead, we finally have a break in the games. We have some favorable home run bets to discuss on this massive MLB slate. We will be looking to attack some good-hitting environments in hitter-friendly ballparks in great matchups.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, September 23, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/23/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, September 23:

• Trent Grisham, New York Yankees
• Mickey Moniak, Colorado Rockies
• Eugenio Suarez, Seattle Mariners
• Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros

Trent Grisham OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+300 FanDuel)

Shane Smith will square off against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. The Yankees are on fire and have multiple bats that can take advantage of Smith's splits.

Smith has allowed a 1.1 HR/9, .157 ISO, and a 10.0% Brl this season. He has allowed a 1.4 HR/9 on the road, and pitching in Yankee Stadium with the short porch in right field is a tall task.

He has allowed 17 home runs this season, and 13 of those have come against left-hand hitters. He has allowed a .432 SLG, .210 ISO, 10.1% Brl, and a 50.5% Hard Hit against the split in 2025. Smith will be one of the best arms to target for the long ball on today’s slate.

Trent Grisham is having an all-world year, and it came out of nowhere. I doubt there was anyone who expected him to hit over 20 home runs this season, let alone 33, and be second on the Yankees in the long ball.

Wild that over a year ago Yankees fans were chanting "We want Soto" at Trent Grisham and then he hit an absolute nuke into the stands.

Incredible foreshadowing for what Grish would do for the Yanks this year.pic.twitter.com/NAEj8L9tc5

— Mike Salvatore (@MikeSalvatore10) September 5, 2025

He has demolished right-handed pitching this season. He has 27 home runs, a .522 SLG, and a 17.8% Brl. He is red hot with three home runs over the last ten days.

Look for Grisham to leave the yard in the Bronx tonight.

Mickey Moniak OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+465 DraftKings)

The Rockies will head out west to Seattle to square off against the Mariners at T-Mobile Park. I love this game for targeting home runs, as I will have two home runs bets in this spot, one for each team.

Our first target will be Bryce Miller, who has allowed a 1.7 HR/9, a .212 ISO, and a 10.1% Brl this season. He has allowed a 2.1 HR/9 and a 10.8% Brl at home. Miller has allowed 15 total home runs this season. He has been the worst on this Mariners staff, pitching to a 5.58 ERA this season.

Miler gets hit relatively hard on both sides of the plate. He has allowed a bit more power against left-handed hitters in 2025. He has given up eight home runs, with a .481 SLG, .237 ISO, 10.7% Brl, and a 43.8% Hard Hit.

The former number one pick has had a fantastic season for the Rockies. Moniak has hit 24 home runs this season, and 23 of those have been against right-handed pitching. He has a .549 SLG, 14.8% Brl, and a 46.3% Hard Hit this season against the split.

Mickey Moniak has often been labeled a bust after being taken No. 1 overall in the 2016 MLB Draft.

Traded by the Phillies. Released by the Angels. Thriving with the Rockies at 27 years old.

.273 BA | 24 HR | .839 OPS in just 129 games. pic.twitter.com/xljZx5rHnE

— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) September 18, 2025

Moniak hits everything that Miller throws. In particular, the four-seam fastball, knuckle curve, and splitter that Miller primarily throws to left-handed hitters. This is an excellent spot for a player who has continued to hit well this season.

Eugenio Suarez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (TBD)

Eugenio Suarez is my favorite home run bet of the night. This spot is elite for him, and he checks all the boxes for me. Suarez will square off against McCade Brown and the Rockies bullpen tonight at home.

Brown has allowed a 1.6 HR/9, .187 ISO, and a 12.3% Brl this season. He has allowed three home runs in 17.2 innings pitched. Brown has surprisingly allowed a higher home run per nine on the road outside of Coors Field.

In particular, right-handed hitters have some serious underlying numbers against Brown. He has allowed a .500 SLG, .225 ISO, 17.1% Brl, and a 48.6% Hard Hit. He is getting hit hard often by righties.

If not for Cal Raleigh, Suarez would be the talk of this Mariners team. He is three home runs away from 50 this season. Suarez has hit 34 of these against right-hand pitching this season. He has a .550 SLG, .298 ISO, and a 14.7% Brl against right-handed pitching this season.

MUST SEE: Eugenio Suárez literally made this baseball disappear 😮 pic.twitter.com/o92ce0UckA

— MLB (@MLB) September 20, 2025

Brown has had issues with his slider in the early part of his career. He has allowed a .824 SLG, .471 ISO, and two home runs off it against right-hand pitching this season. Suarez has a .773 SLG, .507 ISO, and 11 home runs this season off that pitch.

The spot is too elite to pass up, so I may bet him to hit two home runs.

Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+440 FanDuel)

Isaac Paredes and the Astros will head to Sacramento to Sutter Health Park for a matchup with the Athletics. It will be in the mid-90s tonight in Sacramento, making this a fantastic hitting spot.

Paredes, who recently returned from the IL, has always been a tremendous power bat, especially against left-handed pitching. This season, he has a .468 SLG, .213 ISO, and 20 home runs.

¡El de la H la puso del otro lado!
Isaac Paredes alcanza los 20 cuadrangulares en la temporada 🇲🇽💪 pic.twitter.com/zhpYFDTuyq

— MLB México (@MLB_Mexico) September 22, 2025

Jeffrey Springs has allowed a 1.5 HR/9, .192 ISO, and a 10.6% Brl this season. He has allowed 28 home runs this season, with 25 of those being against right-handed hitters. He has allowed a .448 SLG, .208 ISO, and an 11.1% Brl against the split in 2025.

Springs has allowed 18 of those 25 home runs to right-handed hitters from two pitches. His changeup has a .375 SLG, .168 ISO, and 10 home runs against it. The four-seam fastball has allowed a .492 SLG, .224 ISO, and eight home runs against it.

Paredes crushes both of those pitches. He has a .500 SLG and a .250 ISO against the four-seamer and a .417 SLG and a .250 ISO against the changeup. I actually wish this game were in Houston with the Crawford Boxes, but this park is tremendous for home runs as well.

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