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Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 4 of 2025. He looks at surprising performances from Caleb Williams, Jordan Mason, Cam Skattebo, Tre Tucker, Luther Burden III.
Welcome back to our fantasy football series Fact of Fiction. We're heading into Week 4 of the NFL season now after an exciting Week 3 that featured some surprising big-time performances, including from the entire Chicago Bears offense, which put up four passing scores on the Cowboys.
Was that a real sign of progression from Chicago? Or did the team just happen to face a defense that's been absolutely awful after trading away Micah Parsons?
Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider their showings in the larger scheme. Below, you'll find my analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 3. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?
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Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Week 3 stats: 19-of-28 for 298 yards and four touchdowns, five carries for 12 yards -- overall QB1
Here's the best way to describe the Bears/Cowboys game from Sunday: I was watching at a brewery and in the fourth quarter, some people came in from the patio and one of them pointed up at the screen and said, "Oh my God."
What Chicago did to Dallas on Sunday was a shock, though it probably shouldn't have been. The Cowboys defense has been a disaster this season and was coming off a Week 2 game where it allowed 450 passing yards to Russell Wilson. Yes, the same Russell Wilson who was so bad in Week 3 that his team has now benched him for a rookie quarterback.
So, Williams having this breakout game shouldn't be too big of a shock. If there was a defense bad enough for him to destroy like this, it's Dallas.
Caleb Williams' 65-yard touchdown pass to rookie Luther Burden III traveled 62.1 yards in the air, the longest completion in the NFL this season, and Caleb's longest completion of his career.#DALvsCHI | #DaBearspic.twitter.com/D5GQjABob3
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 21, 2025
Additionally, it's not like Williams having a good game was an anomaly. He's completed at least 60 percent of his passes in all three games this season and has just one turnover. Second-year Williams is a clear step above where first-year Williams was at.
It can be hard to break past your preconceived notions, and I know a lot of people viewed Williams as someone who was on the path toward being a bust. I think it's safe to say he's turned that around and has shown why he was the first quarterback drafted in 2024.
With that said, he also won't play Dallas every week, so don't expect consistent QB1 production. He's on the ascent, but for now, he's still probably someone you'd want to sit if he has a bottom-10 matchup.
Verdict: Slightly more fact than fiction
Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Week 3 stats: 16 carries for 116 yards and two touchdowns -- overall RB4
With Aaron Jones Sr. out, the Vikings turned to Jordan Mason as the lead back. He delivered a knockout blow to the Cincinnati Bengals, rushing for 116 yards and two touchdowns in a 48-10 victory.
Jones is on the injured reserve with a hamstring injury, so we'll get at least three more games with Mason as the team's lead back. Fantasy managers need to make sure he's in their starting lineup for all three of those games. He also has a good shot to still be the lead back once Jones returns due to his upside as an early-down runner.
This isn't to say Mason is without flaws. He's basically a non-factor in the receiving game, as he wasn't even targeted a single time on Sunday and has three catches for 15 yards all season. In full PPR leagues, that stings a bit, but not enough to consider benching him.
If you're worried this was a fluke, just look at what Mason did when he was in San Francisco last year. In eight games with Christian McCaffrey sidelined, Mason averaged 85.6 rushing yards and 12.5 half PPR points, per RotoViz's Game Splits app. He's a very good running back who just happens to keep ending up playing behind better ones.
Verdict: Fact, until Aaron Jones is back, and then...probably still a Fact
Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants
Week 3 stats: 10 carries for 60 yards and one touchdown, six catches for 61 yards -- overall RB6
After a very quiet Week 1, the Giants have worked to get rookie Cam Skattebo more involved over the past two weeks, resulting in the former Arizona State star finding the end zone two weeks in a row.
This week, Skattebo was also involved in the receiving game, with Russell Wilson targeting him eight times in the loss to the Chiefs. Those were the most targets of anyone on the team.
Cam Skattebo was the Giants ENTIRE offense against the Chiefs.
• 10 carries (led team)
• 60 rushing yards (led team)
• 1 rushing TD (led team)
• 8 targets (led team)
• 6 receptions (led team)
• 61 receiving yards (led team)Skattebo now LEADS all rookie RB’s in rushing… pic.twitter.com/uJ8uV3N1oc
— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) September 22, 2025
Skattebo was New York's best player in Week 3. He'll also have multiple chances to continue being the team's best player as starting running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. will miss two to four weeks with a dislocated shoulder, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Is Skattebo the best running back from his class? In the long run, probably not, because Ashton Jeanty is going to eventually shake off his slow start and take the league by storm. With that said, Skattebo is still a really good running back who is about to see the bulk of his team's work. You should be starting him in all formats.
Verdict: Fact
Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Week 3 stats: eight receptions for 145 yards and three touchdowns -- overall WR1
I mean...WHAT. Tre Tucker scored HOW many touchdowns in Week 3?
The third-year receiver caught eight passes for 145 yards in a 41-24 loss to the Commanders, with three of those going for touchdowns. He now leads the NFL with four touchdown receptions, which is already a career-high for the former Cincinnati Bearcat.
Just looking at things from the surface level, I want to laugh this one off as an anomaly. Two of those touchdowns were in the fourth quarter of the game, with the Raiders down 24 points at the time of Tucker's second score of the day. The final touchdown was a 61-yarder, and big plays like that always feel fluky.
That's Tre for Tre! 🔥#LVvsWAS | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/71B7lW8ecv
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) September 21, 2025
At the same time, Tucker led the team in targets and played 62 of the 65 offensive snaps. It's also becoming clear that Geno Smith trusts him more than he trusts Jakobi Meyers.
Ultimately, Tucker isn't going to have more explosive games like this, but that doesn't mean he won't have a lot of fantasy value going forward. His high level of involvement in this offense over the past two weeks feels sustainable, even if his production is more likely to land in the WR3/4 range each week.
Verdict: *shrugs*, but probably leaning more on the Fact end
Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears
Week 3 stats: three catches for 101 yards and a touchdown -- overall WR6
We started this article with the Bears and we'll end it with the Bears.
Last week, I wrote about Rome Odunze and concluded that his Week 2 showing was a sign of big things to come for the second-year receiver. I'd say his finish as the overall WR18 this week is a good sign that I was on the right path with that conclusion.
In Week 3, rookie Luther Burden III emerged as a huge weapon for Williams, but I don't feel nearly as good about Burden going forward as I do about Odunze.
Part of that is Burden's lack of usage over the first two games of the season, when he had just three targets with two receptions for two yards.
That level of involvement didn't change much in Week 3; it just so happened that Burden managed to turn the three targets he had into three catches for 101 yards, with a big 65-yard touchdown sprinkled in there.
He still only played 17 snaps, with his 28.8 percent snap rate ranking behind three Bears wide receivers and two Bears tight ends. He's a boom-or-bust fantasy option at the moment, and until he's getting more snaps than Olamide Zaccheaus, I struggle to see myself starting him unless I'm desperate.
Verdict: Fiction
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