RADIO
Elliott looks at pitchers with surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets for Week 26 in 2025, or just mirages.
Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 26 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. For those unfamiliar, this is a weekly column where we examine starting pitchers who had surprisingly strong starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legitimate or just smoke and mirrors.
Well RotoBallers, we've reached the end of the line. It's the final edition of "Are You For Real" for the 2025 regular season, and if you're still reading that means you're likely fighting for a championship. If that's you, then best of luck in the final week! This week we're breaking down three interesting right-handers. First, we'll deep dive top prospect Bubba Chandler's emergence for Pittsburgh. Then, we'll break down Luis Morales' tough luck loss against Chandler on Saturday. We'll finish it off by looking at a crafty veteran in Kyle Hendricks of the Angels.
Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of September 22.
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Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates – 35% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 20.2 IP, 5.66 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 17.4% K-BB%
09/20 vs. ATH: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K
Chandler was fantastic on Saturday against the Athletics, holding them to just one hit and zero walks over five innings in the victory. Chandler has allowed just one earned run over his last two starts, both dominant performances. Could the top prospect be realizing his potential as we enter championship week?
Originally a third-round pick by Pittsburgh in 2021, Chandler became a huge pitching prospect thanks to his big fastball and bevvy of secondary offerings. He was ranked as the number seven prospect in baseball by Fangraphs in July of this year, making him the second-highest ranked pitcher behind just Chase Burns. Chandler works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball.
His most used pitch has been the four-seam fastball, and that was no different in this start. He threw the pitch 51% of the time against the Athletics, compared to 53.3% usage on the year. Chandler’s fastball is notable for its big heat, as he’s averaged 98.9 mph with the fastball in the majors so far. He was pitching in relief when first called up, but Chandler hasn’t lost velocity as a starter.
He averaged an incredible 99.3 mph with his fastball in this start, and maxed out at 100.9. That makes him among the hardest throwing starters in the big leagues, with only Hunter Greene and Jacob Misiorowski averaging more heat with their four-seamers. It’s not just about heat for Chandler either; his fastball has plenty of life with 17.4 inches of induced vertical break and 8.7 inches of arm-side run. Here’s an example of the pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 22, 2025
Just filthy, and Chandler has gotten plenty of swing-and-miss with the pitch so far. He has a 28.2% whiff rate, which is great for a fastball. He got six whiffs in this start, which is pretty good, but racked up 13 whiffs with the heater alone in his previous start against Washington. With this combination of velocity and movement, it’s easy to envision Chandler as a plus strikeout pitcher, especially against softer lineups like the Nationals and Athletics.
While the fastball has had good swing-and-miss, when batters do make contact they’ve hit it rather hard. The average exit velocity against Chandler’s four-seamer is 95.1 mph, and he has a 36.8% line drive rate against the pitch as well. It’s still a small sample size, but Chandler’s fastball has even been hit hard in these recent two starts, so it’s a trend. Overall, batters are hitting .327 with a .538 SLG and a .404 wOBA off Chandler’s four-seamer. The measurables on this pitch are outstanding, and I believe over time Chandler see better results against his fastball, even if batters make hard contact against it.
Chandler’s next most used pitch has been the changeup, which he’s thrown 22.7% of the time this season, primarily to left-handed batters. He threw it 26% of the time in this start, notching five of his 15 whiffs with the changeup. A 91.7 mph offering, Chandler’s changeup is hard and sharp with strong horizontal movement; 16.6 inches of arm-side run. Here is an example of the pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 22, 2025
Hard to hit that, especially when he’s throwing nearly 100 with the fastball. The changeup has been outstanding for Chandler this season. Batters have yet to get a hit off Chandler’s changeup, with a .000 batting average and an .035 wOBA. He also has a .137 xBA, .215 xSLG, and .177 xwOBA with the pitch. Opponents have really struggled to make contact with this pitch, as Chandler has a 43.6% whiff rate so far.
Again, it’s a small sample size, but a whiff rate above 40% is quite impressive. Between this pitch and his fastball, it’s a wonder that Chandler only has an 8.77 K/9 so far. He was racking up strikeouts in the minors, and while the majors is literally a whole different ballgame, I think it’d be reasonable to expect a plus strikeout rate from Chandler going forward. He certainly has the stuff and pedigree for it.
Chandler also throws an 88.8 mph slider, which has performed quite well thus far. Batters are hitting just .095 against the pitch with an .095 SLG and an .084 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Chandler has earned these results, with a .163 xBA, .224 xSLG, and .166 xwOBA. Opponents have just an 86.7 mph average exit velocity off the slider and Chandler has a 53.3% ground-ball rate with the pitch. He only has a 22.7% whiff rate with the slider, but he got four whiffs on 10 swings in this start against the Athletics. He only had a 27.4% whiff rate with the slider in the minors, so perhaps it’s not as big of a strikeout pitch compared to his fastball and changeup. Still, it’s a hard slider with decent movement and Chandler’s been able to induce weak contact with it thus far.
His least-thrown pitch is the curveball, which Chandler has only thrown 6.7% of the time this season, and he only threw two curveballs in this start. An 85.4 mph offering, it’s hard for a curveball and has -2.9 inches of induced vertical break and 1.8 inches of glove-side movement. Batters have hit .500 off the pitch, but Chandler has a .201 xBA, .217 xSLG, and .183 xwOBA with the pitch. He also has an 84.4 mph average exit velocity and an unheard of -15-degree average launch angle against.
He’s only thrown 25 curveballs so it’s an extremely small sample size, but it’s what we’d want to see in a curveball. He only used the curveball 9.1% of the time in the minors this season and it wasn’t that effective, so perhaps it’s best served as a show-me option for Chandler. It’s not a bad pitch by any means, but it pales in comparison to his other offerings.
Verdict:
Chandler was one of the top prospects in all of baseball coming into the season, and it’s easy to see why. He’s one of the hardest throwing starters in the game with a 98.9 mph four-seamer. The fastball has plenty of life too, with 17.4 inches of induced vertical break. The fastball has been hit hard, but it has the right combination of movement and speed and Chandler should find success with it down the road. His changeup has been an excellent strikeout pitch that neutralizes left-handed hitters. It’s a small sample, but he has an impressive .000 AVG against and a 43.6% whiff rate with the changeup so far.
Chandler’s final start comes at Atlanta on Saturday, and if you’re still in it and need a starter I think I’d go for it. The Braves .315 wOBA against right-handed pitching doesn’t scare me. It may be worth sitting Chandler if you’re protecting ratios, however. He did get tagged for nine earned runs against the Brewers on September 7, so the blow-up potential is there. Long term, the sky’s the limit for Chandler, and the Pirates could have a very exciting pitching staff in 2026 if everyone stays healthy.
Luis Morales, Athletics – 36% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 38 IP, 3.08 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 13% K-BB%
09/20 @ PIT: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
We had a classic pitcher’s duel in Pittsburgh on Saturday, because opposite Chandler was Morales, who allowed just two runs over six innings in the tough luck loss. Morales has come alive down the stretch, pitching to a 3.08 ERA in 44 innings since August 1. Can he finish out strong, and is he a 2026 sleeper?
Originally an international free agent signing out of Cuba, Morales was a highly ranked prospect within the Athletics’ organization and on a national level. Fangraphs had him ranked as the number 99 prospect in baseball heading into the 2025 season. Morales works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sweeper, changeup, and slider.
His most used pitch has been the four-seamer, which he’s used 51.9% of the time this season. He threw the pitch 49% of the time against the Pirates. A 97.3 mph offering, Morales’ fastball brings some serious heat. He nearly touched 100 mph in this game with his fastball, showing off that velocity. He gets some movement with the pitch as well with 16 inches of induced vertical break and 7.7 inches of arm-side run.
It’s not an incredibly unique fastball shape, and Morales hasn’t gotten a lot of whiffs with his fastball this season. He has just a 15.1% whiff rate with the heater, which is rather low given the velocity. He got just two of his eight whiffs with the pitch in this start. Overall, batters are hitting .262 with a .440 SLG and a .347 wOBA off Morales’ fastball. Even worse, he has a .30. xBA, .542 xSLG, and .399 xwOBA against.
He’s allowed a 93.6 mph average exit velocity against and a 27.5% line drive rate. It’s still a relatively small sample size, but Morales’ fastball is looking hittable for major leaguers. He may throw it hard, but it hasn’t been deceptive enough to generate big swing-and-miss, and he’s given up a lot of hard contact with the pitch. Major league hitters can handle 97 mph, especially when it lacks unique movement.
Morales’ most used secondary pitch has been the sweeper, which he’s thrown 26.4% of the time. An 82.3 mph offering, Morales has a big velocity gap between his four-seamer and sweeper. The sweeper has big spin and big movement too, with 2989 RPM, -2.1 inches of induced vertical break, and a whopping 19.5 inches of glove-side movement. Here’s an example of the pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 22, 2025
Morales spins it in there nicely, and opposing hitters have really struggled with this pitch this season. Batters are hitting just .103 off the sweeper with a .333 SLG and a .217 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Morales has earned these results with a .154 xBA, .354 xSLG, and a .247 xwOBA. He also has an impressive 35.8% whiff rate with the pitch and notched four of his eight whiffs with the pitch in this start. Even when batters do make contact, they aren’t striking the ball well. Opponents have a paltry 81.5 mph average exit velocity against Morales’ sweeper this season as well. The sweeper looks like Morales’ best pitch, and this could be a good strikeout weapon for him going forward.
Morales also throws an 89.6 mph changeup, primarily using it against left-handed batters. He only uses it 12.6% of the time and only used it 11% of the time against the Pirates on Saturday. A hard changeup, Morales also has strong movement with the pitch. He’s averaged 10.6 inches of induced vertical break and 14.8 inches of arm-side run. Here’s an example of the pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 22, 2025
Looks filthy there, though Morales only has a 26.2% whiff rate with the pitch this season. Not a terrible whiff rate by any means, but anything under 30% usually means it’s not much of a strikeout pitch. He does have an 84.8 mph average exit velocity against with the pitch, and batters have only hit .200 off the changeup with a .320 SLG and a .241 wOBA. Unfortunately, the expected stats suggest that regression could be coming. Morales has a .273 xBA, .391 xSLG, and a .300 xwOBA against his changeup this season. He’s been fortunate with just a .190 BABIP against his changeup so far, and that will certainly rise over a longer period of time, even if Morales is inducing weak contact with his changeup.
Morales rounds things out with an 85.8 mph slider, which he’s only thrown 9% of the time this season. He threw it a little more against Pittsburgh, using the slider 14% of the time. The slider is a harder version of the sweeper, with less movement. He only averages 1.9 inches of induced vertical break and 9.4 inches of glove-side movement. The movement may not be as pronounced on the slider, but Morales has gotten some excellent results. Here's an example of the pitch from this season.
— Elliott Baas (@ElliottBaasBB) September 22, 2025
Batters are hitting just .167 off the slider, though with a .500 SLG and a .274 wOBA. It’s a small sample size, but he’s allowed a 90.5 mph average exit velocity against with his slider this season. He’s surrendered a little power, but what’s most impressive about this pitch is the 40% whiff rate. Between the slider and sweeper, Morales seems to have two effective strikeout offerings. He put up big strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think he’s capable of better than his current 7.77 K/9.
Morales has been great for a lot of fantasy managers down the stretch, but it’s worth pointing out just how lucky he’s been during this run. Morales is currently sporting a .217 BABIP against and a 90.2% LOB rate. He may have a 3.07 ERA, but his 4.94 FIP and 4.50 xFIP suggest that he could experience ERA regression over a longer period. He’s surrendered 1.64 HR/9 during this run as well, an ugly home run rate. He’s fortunate to have such a high strand rate given how high his home run rate is. Neither the strand rate or BABIP are sustainable, and Morales could have some growing pains as these numbers normalize in 2026.
Verdict:
Morales throws hard and has some strong secondary offerings. His fastball averages 97 mph, though it lacks the big movement we like to see and has a rather typical shape. As a result, it hasn’t been very deceptive and only has a 15% whiff rate. His sweeper and slider have both been outstanding, with batters hitting under .200 against each pitch with a whiff rate above 35% as well. The sweeper is slow with big horizontal movement, stymieing opposing hitters. The slider isn’t thrown as often by Morales and doesn’t have as much movement, but a 40% whiff rate is impressive nonetheless.
Morales began his career in the bullpen, but I think this arsenal is deep enough for him to make it as a starter. He’s got some flaws and he’s been lucky to a degree, but he’s still an interesting sleeper for 2026 and a fine stream for his last start of the season, which comes Friday against Kansas City at home.
Kyle Hendricks, Los Angeles Angels – 8% Rostered
2025 Stats (prior to this start): 152.2 IP, 5.01 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 8.9 K-BB%
09/20 @ COL: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Hendricks had one of his best starts all season on Saturday, blanking the Rockies in Coors field for his eighth victory of the season. Hendricks has been pitching better as of late—well, sort of. He’s put up a quality start in four of his last five outings, but he allowed nine earned runs in the one game that wasn’t a quality start. He still has a 3.68 ERA over his last five starts, and his recent performance begs the question, do you trust Kyle Hendricks with your season on the line?
Originally an eighth-round pick by the Rangers in 2011 out of Dartmouth, Hendricks was a reliable big league starter during the second half of the 2010s. Between 2014-2020 Hendricks posted a 3.12 ERA, 3.53 FIP, and 15.5% K-BB% in 175 appearances. He struggled upon entering his 30s, however, and has a 4.79 ERA in 131 games since opening day 2021. Hendricks works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a changeup, sinker, four-seam fastball, and curveball.
Hendricks most used pitch this season has been the changeup, which he’s thrown 38.5% of the time. His usage was down slightly in this start at 32%, but he still relied heavily on the pitch. The changeup was known as Hendricks’ signature pitch during his heyday, and its still been rather effective this season. Batters are hitting just .221 off the changeup with a .351 SLG and a .259 wOBA.
The expected stats suggest that Hendricks has earned these results, with a .239 xBA, .376 xSLG, and a .281 xwOBA. Hendricks got four of his seven whiffs with the pitch in this start, but has just a 24.4% whiff rate with the pitch on the year. Strikeouts were never a big part of Hendricks’ game, and that won’t be changing anytime soon. This is his best strikeout pitch, and it has a sub-25% whiff rate.
Hendricks may not get the whiffs but he does one thing very well with his changeup, and that’s induce weak contact. Batters have just an 83.2 mph average exit velocity against Hendricks’ changeup and an 86.2 mph average exit velocity against Hendricks overall. He’s been a soft contact master throughout the course of his career, and that hasn’t changed even as he’s aged. The changeup is just the best of his pitches at inducing the weak contact.
His next most used pitch has been the sinker, which he’s thrown 38.5% of the time on the year and threw 45% of the time against the Rockies. An 86.2 mph offering (yes, you read that correctly), Hendricks is the softest tossing starter in the game today. In fact, the next softest qualified pitcher this season is Jeffrey Springs who averages 90.7 mph with his fastball. He does get okay movement with the sinker, averaging 7.2 inches of induced vertical break and 13.9 inches of arm-side run with the pitch this season.
Unfortunately for Hendricks, batters have had no problem handling this pitch. Opponents are hitting .306 off the sinker with a .494 SLG and a .369 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Hendricks has been a little unlucky, but he still has a .283 xBA, .442 xSLG, and a .342 xwOBA against. He only has an 87 mph average exit velocity against with the pitch, but he also has a 12-degree average launch angle and a 22.5% line drive rate against with the sinker, along with an underwhelming 44% ground-ball rate. Hendricks has a career 52.2% ground-ball rate with the sinker, so this is a noteworthy decline. The sinker is no longer an effective offering for Hendricks and should be considered a liability.
Hendricks’ four-seamer is also soft at 86.5 mph, but he’s gotten some great results with the pitch so far. Batters are hitting just .203 against Hendricks’ four-seamer with a .432 SLG and a .322 wOBA. The expected stats suggest that Hendricks has earned these results with a .198 xBA, .396 xSLG, and a .310 xwOBA. He has allowed a 27-degree average launch angle against with the pitch, but does have a 61.1% fly-ball rate with the pitch as well. Flyballs are the least likely batted ball type to land for a hit, so it can be an advantageous approach to induce flyballs at this rate. It’s even better when the flyballs are soft and weakly hit, like off Hendricks. He obviously isn’t going to blow this heater past anyone, but this pitch is still effective at inducing weak contact.
His last pitch is the curveball, and this pitch has been utterly pulverized by opposing hitters this season. Batters are hitting .462 with a 1.000 SLG and a .589 wOBA off Hendricks’ curveball. Does the .401 xBA, .794 xSLG, or .525 xwOBA make you feel any better? A 72.2 mph offering, the pitch just doesn’t have the movement to deceive hitters, especially when played against an 86 mph fastball. He started throwing the pitch less often after May, throwing it just 5% of the time since May 31. This pitch is a liability for Hendricks, and he should work on phasing it out of his game if possible.
Verdict:
Hendricks has fallen off considerably from his peak in the late 2010s, but there is some streamer appeal here. He still induces weak contact at an elite level, and his changeup is still an effective offering. His four-seam fastball has been great at inducing weak flyballs as well. Fantasy managers just have to consider the risk with Hendricks if they choose to stream him. He’s the softest tossing starter in the majors and batters are hitting over .300 against his primary fastball. He’s basically a fastball-changeup only guy these days as his curveball is worse than useless. He may be pitching better lately, but I’m not trusting him at this point in the season. His final start comes Friday at Houston, and I think he’s an avoid in that matchup.
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