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Eric's top first base (1B) dynasty fantasy baseball rankings, risers, and breakouts heading into 2026. His updated first base rankings for fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.
The first base position is always loaded with power, and 2026 should be no different. This position has a good mix of notable veterans, breakouts, and rising young talent with the top two names below being 26 or younger.
We also have a new top dog at this position. I honestly didn't imagine anyone wrestling the top spot away from Vlad Jr. any time soon, but a certain Athletics rookie had other plans.
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First Base Dynasty Rankings for Fantasy Baseball
Age in parentheses
1. Nick Kurtz, Sacramento Athletics (22)
All hail King Kurtz. While I was a big Kurtz guy before he debuted, even I didn't imagine ranking him #1 overall in these dynasty first base rankings after just one season in the Majors. But when that one season was one of the best rookie seasons I've seen in my lifetime, the ranking is justified. In 489 plate appearances, Kurtz cranked 36 home runs with 86 RBI, 90 runs, and a .290/.383/.619 slash line.
Not only did Kurtz lead all rookies in home runs, runs batted in, runs scored, slugging percentage, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and WAR, but he also led all of baseball in wOBA and wRC+ after May 20th. Yes, ahead of Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Juan Soto, and every other stud hitter in baseball. For any hitter to top those names would be impressive, but for a rookie to do so it truly remarkable.
Home run No. 36 of 2025 for Nick Kurtz 💥 pic.twitter.com/i2zF3snrOH
— Athletics on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) September 28, 2025
While Kurtz had below-average quality of contact metrics, he only chased at a 22.2% clip while having elite quality of contact metrics with a 92.7 mph AVG EV, 19.4% barrel rate, and a 51.1% hard-hit rate. Even if the AVG dips a bit moving forward, Kurtz should be an annual 40-homer threat for years to come.
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (26)
What is there to say about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at this point? He's one of the safest elite bats in the game and still only 26 years old. Yes, we'd all love for his 2021 numbers to come back, but Guerrero has still racked up at least 30 doubles, 84 RBI, and 23 home runs in each of the last four seasons since that big 2021 season, and has at least 90 runs in three of those seasons. In the last two seasons, Guerrero has hit .323 and .292 with an OBP over .380 in both seasons.
Even if he doesn't return to 2021 levels, Guerrero is still a high-floor hitter with plenty of upside thanks to one of the best blends of contact, approach, and quality of contact in the game. Guerrero has been above an 83% zone and 75% overall contact rate in four straight seasons while also posting a career-best 21.4% chase rate in 2025.
And on top of all of that, Guerrero is as durable as they come, having played in 97.9% of Toronto's games over the last six seasons and never missing more than six games in a season during that stretch. Only Matt Olson has played more games than Vlad Jr. over the last six seasons.
3. Pete Alonso, Baltimore Orioles (31)
The Polar Bear flexed his power once again in 2025, bringing his quality of contact metrics to new heights. In addition to hitting 38 home runs with a .524 SLG, Alonso recorded a career-best 18.9% barrel rate, 93.5 mph AVG EV, and 54.4% hard-hit rate in 2025 which were up 5.7%, 3.7 mph, and 8% respectively over his 2024 metrics. Alonso also had a .592 xSLG and .492 xwOBACON, which were the best marks of his career, even higher than his 53-homer rookie season.
If Alonso were a few years younger, he'd have a case to be #2 in these rankings. He combines elite quality of contact metrics with around league-average contact rates and hasn't had a strikeout rate above 24.7% in any of the last five seasons. And now that he's in Baltimore after signing a 5-year contract, Alonso will have one of the best lineups in all of baseball around him and a better home park for right-handed power than he had in 2025.
4. Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants (29)
Welcome to the first base rankings Rafael Devers. After refusing to play first for Boston, apparently Buster Posey got through to Devers who played enough games at first base to qualify on all platforms in 2026.
At the plate, it was another typical Devers season as he finished with 99 runs, 33 doubles, 35 home runs, and 109 RBI. And while his averaged dipped to .252 thanks to a .236 AVG with the Giants, Devers blew past his previous career-high for walks (67 in 2024) and ended the season with a whopping 112 free passes.
🚨 RAFAEL DEVERS HAS HIT HIS FIRST HOME RUN AS A GIANT 🚨 pic.twitter.com/c6pfMEAjqi
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) June 21, 2025
With Devers, the contact rates, both in zone and overall have always been concerning, but he's made it work, largely due to his elite quality of contact metrics. Devers was below a 72% zone and 70% overall contact rate for the second straight season in 2025, but trimmed his chase rate to a career-best 25.5% after being above 30% every year entering 2025. On top of that, Devers posted a career-best 16% barrel rate and 56.1% hard-hit rate.
As long as the AVG rebounds to previous levels, Devers should be a Top-5 option at the first base position.
5. Josh Naylor, Seattle Mariners (28)
If you told me that Josh Naylor was going to steal 30 bags in 2025, I would have laughed directly in your face. The guy had 25 career steals in six seasons entering 2025 and had six in 2024. Obviously I'm not banking on 30 steals again, but Naylor has had at least six in four straight seasons, and maybe he can at least stay in the 15-20 steal range in 2026. These 30 steals more than made up for Naylor hitting 11 fewer home runs than he did in 2024.
Given how much his home run total and batting average have fluctuated year to year, it's hard to know exactly which version of Naylor you're going to get. But this is a high contact hitter who had an 86.8% zone contact rate, 77.9% overall contact rate, and only a 13.7% strikeout rate in 2025 while continuing to post above-average quality of contact metrics. He's a Top-10 option at the very least and has a decent shot to push Top-5 value once again in 2026.
6. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (31)
Two things can be true when it comes to Matt Olson. We can say that 2023 was his career year and probably not going to happen again. But at the same time, we can also say that the Olson we've seen every other year of his career is still a damn good hitter.
In 2025, Olson reached 29 home runs for the 7th straight full season and has exceeded 90 RBI in each of his last six full seasons. And thankfully, Olson's slash line bounced back in 2025 to a .272/.366/.484 mark after slashing just .247/.333/.457 in 2024.
It wasn't even a matter of increased contact rates as those were similar to 2024. However, Olson was hitting the ball a bit harder in 2025, and his BABIP rose 40 points which certainly helped. You should continue considering Olson a high-end target if you're a contending dynasty team and pencil him in for .260/90/30/90. Olson is as durable as they come too, playing in every single game over the last four seasons.
7. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (33)
It was another very good, but slightly shortened season for the future hall of famer in 2025. In 580 plate appearances, Harper racked up 72 runs, 75 RBI, 27 home runs, and 12 steals while slashing .261/.357/.487. That slash line did fall off though from his .285/.373/.525 line in 2024. Harper had his lowest AVG since 2019, lowest OBP since 2014, and lowest SLG since 2016.
Again, it was still a good season for Harper, but once again, he wasn't able to reach the 150-game plateau and has missed an average of 33.4 games per season over the last five seasons. But when on the field, he's still producing high-end quality of contact metrics and his approach and contact metrics are still decent, although, Harper's contact rates seem to fluctuate from season to season.
He's getting up there in age now, but I'm still expecting high-end value from Harper whenever he's on the field, at least for the next few seasons. But given the age, this might be the last season Harper is inside my Top-10 overall.
Rankings Note: Ben Rice would slot here but he was discussed in my Top 10 Dynasty Catcher Rankings article.
Rankings Note: Tyler Soderstrom would slot here but he will be ranked/discussed in the outfield.
8. Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs (28)
In the midst of all the bigger breakout seasons, it feels like the season Michael Busch just had didn't get talked about enough. In 592 plate appearances, Busch slashed .261/.343/.523 with 78 runs, 25 doubles, 34 home runs, 90 RBI, and four steals. The runs, home runs, and RBI were all new career-best marks for Busch, as was his AVG, OBP, and SLG marks.
This it the Busch many prospect evaluators envision back when he was a top prospect thoroughly blocked and spending way too much time in Triple-A while in the Dodgers' organization. It's amazing what consistent playing time can do for a guy!
When you look at Busch's profile and the improvements that happened this season, it becomes easy to believe that this is the Busch we can expect to see moving forward. We saw gains nearly across the board with many contact, quality of contact, and approach metrics, which really back up the breakout season we just saw from Busch.
Let's start with his quality of contact gains. In 2024, Busch's quality of contact metrics were already decent with an 11.2% barrel rate, 89.9 mph AVG EV, and a 39.9% hard-hit rate, but he took those to new levels in 2025. Out of his 387 batted balls, 17.1% were barrels, 47.3% were hard-hit, and Busch's average exit velocity was 92.2 mph.
Those are some notable improvements from 2024 to 2025. Even Busch's xSLG improved 151 points from .418 to .569. That .569 xSLG was the 9th best mark in all of baseball, trailing all of your usual elite sluggers like Judge, Ohtani, Schwarber, etc. And among first basemen, only Pete Alonso had a higher xSLG than Busch did.
As great as all the power gains were, Busch made improvements in several other key areas as well.
Busch continues to get better and better each season. After posting a 79.8% zone and 71.6% overall contact rate (per Savant) in 2024, Busch improved those marks to 84% and 74.9% respectively while maintaining his better than league average 23.1% chase rate. Busch also dropped his strikeout rate from 28.6% to 23.5%.
Making contact and strikeout improvements like that while also increasing your quality of contact metrics is an impressive combination for a player to have in one season.
I'm a believer in what we saw from Busch in 2025. And while I'm not sure he ever reaches Top-5 status at this position, he could settle in as a Top 10-12 option over the next several seasons. The reason why I'm not sure there's another level to unlock is due to Busch not being a full-time player against left-handed pitching. While Busch hammered right-handers to the tune of a .272/.356/.554 slash line, he only managed a .207/.274/.368 slash line in 95 plate appearances against southpaws.
9. Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals (28)
It was a banner year for Vinnie Pasquantino. In 160 games, Pasquantino slashed .264/.323/.475 with a career-best 72 runs, 33 doubles, 32 home runs, 113 RBI, and 49 walks. There wasn't a big change in Pasquantino's hard-hit rate or AVG EV, but his barrel rate jumped from 7.1% to 10.8% as he elevated to his pull side more consistently, boosting his pull-air rate from 21.9% to 25%. All of Pasquantino's home runs were pulled too.
It's always nice to see a hitter boost their home run total without sacrificing a ton of contact. Pasquantino had a 90% zone contact rate for the fourth season in a row, and while his overall contact rate slid a little, it was still a solid 81.8% to go along with a 15.7% strikeout rate. Pasquantino also set a new career-best Max EV at 114.4 mph. I'd love to see Pasquantino get his walk rate back up to 2022-2023 levels, but even if not, a .260/25 type of bat is still a high-end corner infielder or back-end starter for fantasy.
10. Jonathan Aranda, Tampa Bay Rays (27)
If it wasn't for a fractured left wrist which cost him two months of the season, Jonathan Aranda's 2025 season would likely be talked about more. In 422 plate appearances, Aranda slashed .316/.393/.489 with 56 runs scored, 14 home runs, and 59 RBI. That darn wrist fracture likely cost Aranda some Top-10 AL MVP votes.
If you lower the plate appearances threshold to 400, Aranda had the 2nd highest AVG and 11th highest wRC+ in baseball this past season.
Similarly to what I wrote about Michael Busch in my last 2026 player profile, Aranda was a highly regarded hitting prospect who stalled in Triple-A due to lack of opportunity at the Major League level. That first real opportunity came in 2025, and look what happened. Granted, Aranda didn't tear the cover off the ball when up with Tampa Bay in 2022, 2023, and 2024, so it's not like his production was screaming for additional playing time.
While Aranda's metrics don't signal he was a fluke, I'm definitely expecting some regression in the AVG department in 2026. Aranda's overall contact rate was a solid 75.1%, but his in zone contact rate was just 79.1%. He also had the highest BABIP in baseball by a mile and a half this past season, finishing with a whopping .409 mark which was 33 points higher than any other hitter with at least 400 plate appearances.
Aranda posted a higher zone and overall contact rate in 2024, so this area isn't a major concern, but that insanely high BABIP is due for regression, which likely pushes his AVG back under .300 in 2026.
On the flip side, I strongly believe we see additional home runs from Aranda in 2026, and not just due to likely having more plate appearances. Yes, that will certainly help, but Aranda's combination of batter ball angles and quality of contact metrics were very impressive. He also had a 16.3 xHR mark compared to his actual 14 home runs.
Overall, Aranda posted a 12.8% barrel rate, 93 mph AVG EV, and a 54.5% hard-hit rate with an elite .497 xwOBACON. And as mentioned above, his barred ball angles were good as well with a 62.8% air rate, 40.2% pull rate, and a 24.1% pull-air rate. With 550 plate appearances in 2025, Aranda could easily make a run at 25-30 home runs.
Getting the ball in the air more frequently was huge for Aranda's success in 2025. In his first three seasons, his air rate was between 45.5% and 50.5% which really limited him.
Even with some likely AVG regression, Aranda is still a good hitter and a potential Top-100 overall player over a full season. As is the case with Busch, he'll sit against most tougher southpaws, but Aranda could still provide Top-10 value at first base in 550 plate appearances or so.
If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
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