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Andy's 6 pitcher fantasy baseball values, sleepers set to rebound. These high-upside fantasy baseball pitchers disappointed, but are undervalued for 2026 drafts.
The 2025 season saw many pitchers reach elite fantasy territory, like Garrett Crochet and Bryan Woo. Entering the season, Crochet and Woo both had significant workload concerns, but had elite metrics under the hood. Both pitchers surpassed expectations and were league-winning picks for those who took on the "risk" at their price tags.
Unfortunately, some early-round pitchers did not live up to their hype and may have cost you your league or put you in a significant hole to climb out of. In this piece, we will spotlight six of those pitchers who likely let you down in 2025 and determine if they can bounce back in 2026. Be sure to check out our seven high-upside hitters who will rebound in 2026 as well.
Which pitchers should managers buy after a down year? Let's dive in!
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Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Coming off a 2024 NL Cy Young, Chris Sale was likely within the top five of pitchers selected in your drafts. While he showed impressive upside on the bump, he missed significant time due to a rib injury, limiting him to a low 125 2/3 innings, a significant drop from the 177 2/3 he logged the previous season. Despite entering his age-36 season, managers should look to take a slight ADP discount and bet on a major bounce-back from the southpaw.
When on the mound, Sale was just as dominant as he was in 2024 and likely would have given Paul Skenes a great battle for the 2025 NL Cy Young. Across his 125 2/3 innings, the lefty held a stellar 2.58 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. He struck out hitters at a remarkable 32.4% K rate, which placed him in the 95th percentile.
Under the hood, he also carried a 92nd percentile 2.87 xERA and a .205 xBA, putting him in the 86th percentile among qualified pitchers. These marks were right in line with the 2.77 xERA and .211 xBA he generated back in 2024.
As he has for most of his career, Sale relied heavily on his slider and four-seamer, deploying them 89.0% of the time in 2025. His slider boasted a .196 xwOBA with a 39.8% whiff rate, a minor drop from a remarkable yet likely unsustainable 42.7% whiff rate it generated the year prior. His four-seamer averaged 94.8 mph once again, but took a step back from a results standpoint, posting a .348 xwOBA compared to the .300 xwOBA it held in 2024.
Chris Sale picks up his 10th strikeout of the night! pic.twitter.com/BatXBS2KBf
— MLB (@MLB) June 5, 2025
The one concern on his profile (outside of his age) was the rise in fly-ball rate (24.0% - 30.8%) and the drop in ground-ball rate (46.0% - 40.1%) the past season. However, given his ability to still rack up punchouts, managers should not be overly concerned.
When he returned from a fractured rib cage, Sale posted a 2.72 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP, showing managers that he could still produce at this elite level. While he does carry risk (and likely the most among pitchers in this piece), his upside is immense. Unlike last season, you are now able to get him at a discount in 2026 drafts.
On NFBC drafts (from January 1), Sale is being selected at pick 45.0, sitting at the back-end of this group of low-end SP1s like Hunter Brown, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Woo. However, when looking at not only his strikeout upside but also his workload, Sale has a clear path to being the most productive of this bunch.
Target hitters in the opening rounds and take Sale with confidence as your SP1.
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
Tanner Bibee wasn't the flashiest pick last season, but he can be had at a greater discount in 2026 drafts following a mediocre 2025 season in which he posted a 4.24 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP across 182 1/3 innings, along with a pedestrian 21.3% K rate. However, his underlying metrics and usage suggest a return to his 2022 form, when he posted a 2.98 ERA over 142 innings, is possible.
In 2025, Bibee generated a 68th percentile 3.64 xERA and a .227 xBA, suggesting he was quite unlucky last season. Additionally, his 80th percentile hard-hit rate of 36.6% was was below the average rate of qualified pitchers. His command remained strong, allowing walks at a 7.1% rate (67th percentile).
Bibee has always had a large repertoire of pitches, but he made a prominent tweak in 2025. Instead of relying on his four-seamer 43.4% of the time as he did in 2024, he dropped this age to a carer-low 27.9%. He did this for good reason, as this pitch was ineffective last season, with a high xwOBA of .373.
Instead, he began to throw sweeper and sinker 15.8% and 15.2% of the time, respectively, both setting career-highs.
Both pitches were effective, as his sweeper carried a 30.8% hard-hit rate and a .275 xwOBA. His sinker posted a surface level .337 wOBA but could be due for massive positive regression next season, as evidenced by the .267 xwOBA.
His No. 2 pitch, his cutter, remained productive, generating whiffs at a 29.2% rate and a strong .291 xwOBA.
With his sweeper emerging as a legit whiff pitch and his sinker and cutter becoming his go-to fastballs, Bibee seems primed for a bounce-back in 2026. He is the ideal "boring" pitcher with legit upside at his 188.5 ADP on NFBC. His sinker and cutter generated positive results under the hood and could be the driving force for a resurgent campaign.
Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays
Dylan Cease is a safe bet for volume, but his results are nothing but consistent. In 2023, Cease posted a high 4.58 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP but was one of the most dominant arms in 2024, logging 189 1/3 innings to the tune of a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.
As you guessed, in 2025, Cease regressed, posting a 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 168 innings. This performance still netted him a massive seven-year deal with the reigning American League Champions. The Blue Jays clearly trust Cease, but can fantasy managers do the same?
Despite posting a high 4.55 ERA, under the hood, Cease generated a promising 3.46 xERA and a .214 xBA, both well above average. His xERA was nearly identical to the 3.29 xERA he posted under the hood in 2024, suggesting he should have had a much better outcome.
Despite underwhelming production in his ratios, his K% remained above 29.0% for the second straight season.
His two primary pitches, his four-seamer and slider, both greatly underachieved their xwOBAs and, more importantly, his four-seamer actually generated more whiffs (20.3% - 25.8%) compared to 2024. His 25.8% whiff rate on his four-seamer marked a career high.
Cease has the upside to finish within the top five in the sport in strikeouts, given his consistent volume. His underlying metrics suggest his ratios should see significant positive regression. Draft with confidence at his 80.0 ADP.
Eury Perez, Miami Marlins
Eury Perez missed the opening months of the 2025 season, working his way back from Tommy John. However, as he neared a return, Perez was a hot target on waivers as he flashed immense upside as a rookie back in 2023, posting a 3.15 ERA across 91 1/3 innings with 108 punchouts. Unfortunately, his 2025 season did not go as planned, as the young right-hander stumbled through 95 1/3 innings.
Perez posted a hefty 4.25 ERA but maintained a strong WHIP of 1.05. Additionally, his strikeout rate remained high at 27.3%. Most of his damage came at the hands of the long balls, as he allowed 1.19 HR/9.
His low 31.4% ground-ball rate put him in the sixth percentile, while his 46,5% hard-hit rate placed him in the eighth percentile. Despite the hard contact, his ERA estimators suggest he should bounce back significantly this summer, as evident by his borderline elite 3.23 xERA and .203 xBA.
Over his last 20 innings of work, Perez looked his rookie self, posting a 2.70 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP. The driver of this strong finish was his No. 2 pitch, his slider (23% usage). In September, this pitch generated a season-best .132 xwOBA and racked whiffs at a 38.2% rate. In September, he relied on it 27.4% of the time, the highest mark in a single month.
The former top prospect can be drafted at a great price with a 95.8 ADP. His strong conclusion (driven by the increase in his slider usage) and strong ERA estimators suggest Perez has legit high-end SP3/low-end SP2 upside in 2026.
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
The final starting pitcher we will look at is Cole Ragans. Ragans was primarily a disappointment in 2025 due to his injuries. Ragans logged only 61 innings of work due to a groin and rotator cuff injury. In this limited workload, Ragans posted a 4.67 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP but was incredible in the strikeout department, posting a 100th percentile K% (38.1%).
Similar to Sale when Ragans returned late in the season, he looked his typical self, logging 13 innings (three starts) with a 2.77 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and a 22:4 K:BB. His 2.67 xERA and .187 xBA (both within the 96th percentile among qualified pitchers) show that Ragans could have turned into a potential Cy Young-caliber campaign if he stayed on the bump.
Cole Ragans' 11th strikeout of the night 🔥
It's his 4th start this season with 10+ strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/wKiv0q5L1q
— MLB (@MLB) May 6, 2025
His four-seamer (49.5% usage) was elite, boasting a .286 xwOBA (.315 wOBA) with a 28.6% whiff rate, a five-point jump when looking at his 2024 production. His changeup and slider both also saw an impressive increase in swing-and-miss marks, and both were effective as well, generating a xwOBA below .260.
The only two pitches that did not see an increase in whiff rate (his curveball and cutter) were his two least-used pitches.
While his injury concern is a factor to keep in mind on draft day, Ragans carries an affordable 56.3 ADP on NFBC drafts since January 1 and is going after players with even more concern in that department, such as Jacob deGrom and Hunter Greene. With improved health, Ragans has legit SP1 upside in 2026.
Devin Williams, New York Mets
To close things out (pun intended), let's take a look at a relief pitcher who is primed for a massive bounce-back. Williams was likely one of the first closers selected in your draft after he traded to the Yankees. The Big Apple lights might have been too bright for Williams as he struggled, posting a career-worst 4.79 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP.
He tallied only 18 appearances as he was consistently shifted out of the closer role. However, his strikeout production remained elite, as he racked up 90 punchouts (34.7% K%).
However, Williams took significant strides forward in the second half and looked like his former Milwaukee self. Over his last 18 innings (from August 10 and on), Williams posted an elite 2.50 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. He blew only one save during this dominant stretch.
During this strong second half, his four-seamer rounded into form, posting a xwOBA below .250 over the last two months of the season.
Given his impressive final stretch and overall high-end underlying marks (89th percentile xERA and 96th percentile xBA), managers should take the discounted 79.3 ADP in all leagues this season. Williams is currently going off as the No. 9 RP in leagues, after players with serious injury and age questions like Aroldis Chapman, David Bednar, and Josh Hader.
From 2022 through 2024, Williams posted a 1.66 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, with a 221:69 K:BB and earned 65 saves and 26 holds (across 141 innings). He blew only seven total saves over these three seasons. Williams possesses legit 30+ save upside with the Mets in 2026. Fade the top closers and take the potential RP1 at a serious discount.
Feel free to message me on X @A_Smith_FS for any fantasy baseball questions. Draft season is in full swing, and be sure to keep following @RotoBallerMLB for all of our league-winning content.
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