6 League-Winning Fantasy Baseball Pitchers: Andy Smith's High-Upside Draft Targets

March 18, 2026

Andy's 6 league-winning pitchers, fantasy baseball breakouts, values, studs to provide massive return on value in 2026 including Chris Sale, Dylan Cease, more

Everyone is looking for the next league-winner. Last season, several of the starting pitchers who took this mantle were Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies and Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers, who provided immense value at their respective ADPs.

In this piece, I will spotlight my six league-winning starting pitchers that I do not want to leave my draft without. All ADP referenced in this piece is taken from the NFBC drafts since March 1. After reading this one, be sure to check out my league-winning hitters as well!

Be sure to follow RotoBallerMLB on X for all of our league-winning content and me, @A_Smith_FS, for any questions! Additionally, be sure to use code SMITH at checkout for 30% off on all premium packages. Let's dive in!

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Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 46

Chris Sale was the "league-winner" back in 2024 when he logged 177 2/3 innings to the tune of a 2.38 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. He racked up 225 punchouts en route to taking home the NL Cy Young crown. However, in 2025, the veteran left-hander was a major disappointment, logging only 125 2/3 innings after missing several months due to a rib injury.

Even though his workload was limited, which lowered his overall ceiling, when on the bump, Sale was just as dominant. He held a 2.58 ERA with a strong 1.09 WHIP. He struck out hitters at a 32.4% rate, a slight 0.3% jump from his elite 2024 mark. However, his walk rate slightly increased to 6.3% from 5.6% the previous summer.

Given his ADP, it appears managers have begun to write off this injury-prone Cy Young candidate, as he is valued as a low-end SP1. However, this presents a great buying opportunity to potentially acquire a high-end pitcher at a major discount. Even though Sale missed time in 2025, it was not due to an arm/elbow injury, which is why I am willing to select him at his ADP.

Sale suffered a rib fracture when tackling to dive for a baseball, which is a very unpredictable injury and has not faced any restrictions this spring.

Under the hood, Sale generated an elite 92nd percentile xERA with an 86th percentile xBA. His .265 xwOBA was nearly identical to his .263 xwOBA from his Cy Young campaign. His No. 1 pitch, his slider, was even more dominant than in 2024, as its xwOBA continued to decline while its whiff rate remained above 39.0%.

Sale is currently going after pitchers like Bryan Woo and Hunter Brown in the current NFBC, as it's going off the board as a low-end SP1. When healthy, Sale has just as much upside as the top-3 group of Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, and Paul Skenes.

Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles

NFBC ADP: 157

Trevor Rogers was a late-season league-winner but is extremely undervalued in current ADP. In 2024, Rogers was very ineffective, posting a 4.92 ERA and a 1.589 WHIP across 105 1/3 innings split between the Marlins and Orioles.

In 2025, Rogers would not make his season debut until late May but would become an elite option as soon as he took the bump. Over 109 2/3 innings, the left-hander would immediately become one of the game's top arms, holding an incredible 1.81 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP. Is this MVP-caliber play suitable? Probably not, but even if he takes a slight step back, he will provide great value at his ADP.

Under the hood, he generated a solid 3.41 xERA with a .225 xBA. He generated groundballs at a high 46.4% rate (71st percentile) while posting a strong 24.3% K% and a 6.9% BB%.

In 2025, Rogers leaned on his four-seamer more and, as a result, dropped his sinker. His four-seamer (40.7% usage) posted an elite .158 BA with a .215 wOBA and a 242% whiff rate. While the underlying a. 275 xwOBA suggests he could face some regression (as depicted in his xERA as well), it will not be significant enough to warrant this massive discount and drafting cost.

By dropping his sinker usage, his changeup began to play even better. This pitch (25.0% usage) posted a 26.9% whiff rate with a .295 xwOBA.

Rogers also flashed a high whiff upside with his slider (12.0% usage) as it held a 41.0% rate. Rogers could see his strikeout rate rise if this pitch can creep into the low-20.0 % usage range.

Even if his ERA falls into the low 3.00s, Rogers will provide elite upside at his cost. He is going after Tyler Glasnow, Sonny Gray, and Brandon Woodruff in drafts, all of whom have significant injury and/or regression concerns. Even with some regression, Rogers has high-end SP2 upside in his range of outcomes but is being drafted as a borderline SP3.

That's it for Trevor Rogers today vs. the Rays, and it was another strong spring start.

3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's. Retired 9 of 10 batters faced. 34 pitches, 24 strikes.

The Orioles left-hander has a 0.00 ERA in 5 innings over 2 Grapefruit League starts. pic.twitter.com/4xBrzQKKLZ

— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) February 25, 2026

Dylan Cease, Toronto Blue Jays

NFBC ADP: 79

The 30-year-old was a major bust in 2025 as he logged 168 innings to the tune of a 4.55 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. This was a major decline from the 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP he held back in 2024. However, despite the rough showing, the Blue Jays opted to sign the right-hander to a massive seven-year, $210 million contract.

If this heavy contract was not enough to convince you to buy back into Cease, the underlying metrics will.

The right-hander was one of the most unlucky pitchers in baseball in 2025 as he generated a 3.46 xwOBA with a .214 xBA, both of which were in the 74th percentile or higher. Additionally, his xERA was nearly a full point lower than his face-value ERA.

His .290 xwOBA was nearly identical to the .286 xwOBA he generated back in 2024, and his 8.6% barrel rate was only a 0.1% form jump from the previous campaign. While his standard statistics may steer you away on draft day, under the hood, he was precisely the same pitcher.

His two most-used pitches, his four-seamer and slider (combined 83.1% usage), both remained elite under the hood but were not rewarded. His four-seamer posted a .315 xwOBA with a 25.8% whiff rate, both improvements over the .354 xwOBA and the 20.3% whiff rate. His slider maintained a whiff rate above 42.0% as well.

Cease is a safe bet for 200+ strikeouts and should provide a strong mid-3.00s ERA with an elite WHIP. If you opt to target bats in the first four to five rounds, target Cease with confidence as your SP1.

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

NFBC ADP: 200

The final starting pitcher I wanted to spotlight is going just near pick 200 but has upside to become a high-end SP2. Many hoped Shane Baz would have his breakout campaign in 2025, as he was at full strength recovering from Tommy John surgery. However, Baz was unable to find much success over his career-high 166 1/3 innings.

Baz would post a hefty 4.87 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and be a major disappointment at his ADP.

Despite this, with the Rays moving back to Tropicana Field and out of the hitter's paradise of George M. Steinbrenner Field, Baz is poised to deliver massive value at his draft cost and could finally live up to his high-end prospect pedigree.

Looking at his home and away splits, the bounce-back case can already be taking shape. In the temporary home, the former top prospect would allow 18 home runs with a 5.90 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. On the road, Baz would look far more comfortable, carrying a 3.86 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP while surrendering just eight home runs.

Overall, his 3.88 xERA was significantly lower than his 4.87 surface-level ERA.

The right-hander also made a slight tweak to his pitch mix that could continue to evolve in 2026. After relying on his slider as his No. 2 pitch in 2024, Baz dropped it in favor of a knuckle curve, which he threw 26.9% of the time. This pitch would post a .249 xwOBA with a 29.5% whiff rate and could continue to develop as he moves back to a pitcher's home park.

Sitting at around pick 200, Baz is the perfect depth starter to target that has the potential to smash his current ADP and become a high-end contributor in your rotation. He should also be in line to earn double-digit victories pitching for an Orioles team that should be in the Wild Card race.

Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC ADP: 182

Let's round this out with two of my favorite relief pitchers to draft. Both of them were discussed in my yearly bold productions piece, which goes to show how high I believe their ceilings can be.

The first one we will spotlight is my top later-round option. The Rays have a messy bullpen to begin the season, which should allow right-hander Griffin Jax to face little competition, with Edwin Uceta (shoulder) working his way back from injury. While it is still unknown how much time Uceta may miss, he is unlikely to be cleared for Opening Day.

This will make Jax the near de facto ninth-inning option with lefty Garrett Cleavinger moving in as the top setup option. The Rays acquired Jax from the Twins at the trade deadline, and he continued to showcase his elite strikeout upside, typically taking the eighth inning.

Over 66 innings (shared between Minnesota and Tampa Bay), Jax held a 4.23 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP. He struck out hitters at an incredible 35.0% rate (99th percentile) while generating a 37.3% whiff rate (97th percentile). While his face-value ratios may not look overly pretty, under the hood, he generated a 3.26 xERA, suggesting that he should be primed to return to his 2024 level of production.

During that season, Jax logged 71 innings to the tune of a 2.03 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, while posting a 34.4% K% and a low 5.4% BB%.

His pitches remained elite, with his two most-used pitches being his sweeper and changeup. generated a + 46.0% whiff rate each while holding a .241 and a .199 xwOBA respecteivly.

While he spent most of his career as the setup man behind Jhoan Duran in Minnesota, Tampa does not have the surefire ninth-inning option, and Uceta has already been delayed. Jax can claim the ninth-inning role in the first month and run away with it. Even if he were to take only 60%-65% of the save opportunities, Jax has 15+ save upside with the potential to rack up 100+ punchouts. This upside cannot be found in this range of the draft.

He is a must-draft as a SP2 in deeper leagues or a high-end SP3 in shallower leagues.

Jax is being selected after other relievers who, albeit, may have a high floor in terms of "saves" but have far greater risk in terms of strikeout upside and ratios, such as Carlos Estevez and Emilio Pagan.

Griffin Jax is going to have some absurd strikeout numbers at the Trop pic.twitter.com/0WQdCh4Bla

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) February 16, 2026

Devin Williams, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 73

Rounding out this list will be my favorite of the "RP1" group. While I strongly considered selecting Cade Smith, his upside is already being backed into his ADP as he is typically going as the RP3-RP4 in most drafts. However, Devin Williams is usually sliding to the bottom of the "early" relievers but possesses nearly just as much upside as many names in that group.

He is my favorite "RP1" to draft if I cannot acquire Smith a few rounds earlier.

Williams was one of the first relief pitchers off the board in the draft last spring, as he was set to join one of the top teams in the sport, the New York Yankees. Williams was a high-end reliever with the Brewers, and he had consensus 40+ save upside joining the reigning American League Champions. However, the 31-year-old would have a very disappointing season, posting a 4.79 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.

He would tally just 18 saves, as he was pulled from the ninth-inning role at several times but did continue to showcase his high-end whiff upside, posting a 34.7% K%.

However, he did begin to look like his former self down the stretch, which opens the door for a massive bounce-back season. Over his last 18 innings, Williams posted a 2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP while holding a 34:6 K:BB. Prior to this stretch, William posted a hefty 7.90 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP.

Over his final two months, Williams' four-seamer took a major step forward, posting a .135 xwOBA and a .223 xwOBA, both of which were season-best marks in relation to early in the season. From April through July, this pitch averaged a much higher .306 xwOBA.

Additionally, this pitch also posted a much lower ground-ball rate over the final two months, which bolstered his production as well.

This is a pitcher who posted an impressive 1.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with only 10 total blown saves from 2021 through 2024 (195 innings). Williams has RP1 upside in his outcome, but could be selected as one of the final true "RP1s" in current ADP.

Pitching for an Mets team that figures to be in the playoff conversation all summer should provide him with ample save opportunities. Last summer, Edwin Diaz tallied 28 saves while blowing three. Williams should see 30+ save opportunities with the potential to post a sub-2.00 ERA and elite strikeout totals.

Williams has a near-identical ADP to Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar, who have been far more inconsistent over the past few seasons than Williams has.

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