Third-Year Fantasy Basketball Breakouts (2026-2027)

September 25, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo analyzes third-year fantasy basketball breakouts, sleepers for 2025-26 drafts. These NBA risers could be under-the-radar fantasy basketball picks at every stage of the draft.

It's finally time! My projections are built, rankings are done (well, for now), and I am ready to dive headlong into my content series that will lead you up to the start of the 2026 fantasy basketball season. My rankings and projections for the top 200 players have been live for about a week and will still be tweaked a bit in the coming weeks. But if you're wondering where I have any of the players mentioned in this article, head over to our new and improved rankings page and have a peek!

Hey there, I'm Thunder Dan, and yes, I did steal the nickname from former Phoenix Suns legend Dan Majerle. He was an awesome hooper, and I was, well, "really good at setting illegal screens," as my high school coach told me years after. But I mean, I think I know my stuff when it comes to fantasy hoops, which I have been playing for at least 20 years. In 2021, I won the FSWA Fantasy Basketball Writer of the Year award, and I still haven't let my friends in any of my basketball leagues forget it.

Anyways, I'm here to talk about breakouts, yes, break...outs! The term gets thrown around a lot in this business, but it pretty appropriately describes this group of young ballers who are entering their third NBA season. We often see a big jump in year two (those players coming next) or year three from NBA players, and getting out in front of those players who improve their game significantly usually means turning a profit on their ADP and having a better chance of building a winning roster. Let's talk third-year breakouts already, shall we?

Early and Middle Round Targets

Before we get to each of these players, just for fun (and so you can see just how high I am on them), I created a little rating system for just how big their breakout COULD be.

• League Winner = Full-blown breakout, smash the button, reach if you must!
• Easy Click = With steady improvement or more minutes, should easily meet or exceed expectations
• Chasing Upside = Has potential for major improvement, but everything has to work out just right

Donovan Clingan, C - Portland Trail Blazers

• Yahoo ADP: 41
• "Easy Click"

Clingan is going off the board a bit too early for some folks, but consider me not one of them. The 22-year-old former UCONN star is poised for a big year after having a pretty big breakout in his second pro season last year.

In just 27 minutes a game, he posted 12.1 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists while adding 1.7 blocks and 1.1 threes. He improved his free-throw shooting from 59% to 68% and shot 34% from behind the arc on 3.2 attempts per game. He's the prototypical big man for today's NBA, and these types of players don't just grow on trees.

We love big men who can space the floor on offense and do something other than rebound. Clingan is a solid passer and improving shooter, while still providing the rim protection we are looking for with blocks. He's also an excellent offensive rebounder, leading the league with 4.5 offensive boards per game last season. Those O-REBS often lead to second-chance points for himself or teammates and allow him to pile up boards in bunches.

Let's look at how he finished the year a little more closely. From February 1st on, he averaged...

13.5 PTS, 12.3 REB, 2.4 AST, 2.3 BLK, 1.4 threes

And that was not with any increase in minutes; he still played about 27 minutes per game across that sample.

Can he play more than 27 minutes a game this season? I don't see why not. But I also don't think he needs to play more than 28-30 minutes a night to still provide us with a really great stat set. If we can get him to 70% at the free-throw line while maintaining his solid FG% and rebounding rates, he's going to provide some really great value.

He doesn't need to take a big leap this year; just some modest improvement and we're talking about a bona fide fantasy asset.

Matas Buzelis, F - Chicago Bulls

• Yahoo ADP: 60
• "League Winner"

I've been "in" on Buzelis since his rookie season, and I still feel like he could be one of the best players in this draft class not named Wemby when it's all said and done.

Will Chicago finally take the training wheels off Buzelis and let him play his full game? We saw some glimpses of it late last year, as Buzelis put up 20.7 PTS, 7.1 REB, and 1.8 AST in March, while playing 32 minutes a night.

Leaped OVER his own teammate for the BL🚫CK.

That was impressive, Matas Buzelis!

Bulls/Nets is LIVE on NBA League Pass... watch here: https://t.co/ZmZQjALF0T pic.twitter.com/8mAgYwbH2c

— NBA (@NBA) February 10, 2026

That's a good place to start his projection for this season, but could he be even better than that? He has a truly unique skill set with the size and shot-blocking ability of a power forward with the handles and shooting ability of a wing. He's not a pure scorer, but he can get buckets at all three levels and figures to have a green light to fire away. His contributions in blocks and threes are substantial, and he doesn't hurt you anywhere but assists.

I really believe that he's an emerging star in this league, and I'm happy to take him a round ahead of his ADP to try to get in on his breakout season. He's not going to crack the top-25 or anything, but I think he could flirt with top-40 value if he does what we think he's capable of doing!

Kel'el Ware, C - Milwaukee Bucks

• Yahoo ADP: 72
• "Chasing Upside"

It's tough, because I'd love to label him a "league winner," but we simply don't know how the minutes and rotations are going to play out in Milwaukee this year. Ware is a dynamic fantasy player, though, averaging nearly a double-double in 22 minutes a night last year in Miami with 1.2 threes and 1.1 blocks per game.

We already talked about the ideal fantasy skill set for a big man with Clingan, and Ware fits the bill, too. While he's not a passing big man, he is an uber-athletic center who can stretch the floor and score with ease. He shot 39.5% from three last season and a very palatable 74% from the line.

Kel'el Ware was easily the most accurate high-volume 3P shooting 7+ footer in the NBA last season at 21 years old…

Potential elite shooting x rim protecting archetype that is oh-so valuable. pic.twitter.com/171gXCqxy8

— Basketball University (@UofBasketball) September 10, 2026

Both of those were big improvements from his rookie season, as we continue to see one major trend with young players: improved efficiency compared to increased per-minute rates of production.

Any real increase in minutes for Ware this year, and we are talking about a guy with top-50 potential. The issue is that he's blocked by Myles Turner at center, and I am not sure that the Bucks will play him at the four very often next to Turner all that often yet.

That's the key for me. If he can get minutes at power forward and isn't just in a timeshare at center, then he has real breakout potential. The good news is that he's priced pretty affordably, so you're not too likely to get burned by him in this range. So if it's him or another player whose ceiling we've already seen, then Ware is an easy choice.

Zach Edey, C - Memphis Grizzlies

• Yahoo ADP: 75
• "Chasing Upside"

I will be the first to admit that I was wrong about Edey when he came out of college. I thought he would be a bit too slow-footed on defense and soft in the paint, despite his size. But he's actually been very good in his limited time on the court, and his game has transferred quite well to the NBA.

He's a throwback center, for sure, but his size is a real problem for opposing bigs. He snags rebounds with ease and has showcased a soft shooting touch in the post. We got a very brief display of his potential last year, when he played just 11 games and missed the rest of the season with an ankle injury.

But those numbers (13.6 PTS, 11.1 REB, 1.9 BLK) in around 26 minutes per game are nothing to sneeze at. And his efficiency improved both from the field (58% to 63%) and at the line (71% to 78%).

The only reason he's not an "easy click" this year for me is the injuries. A guy his size who has already had multiple foot and ankle injuries is a bit of a red flag. If he's healthy and plays 25 or more minutes a night, then he's an awesome pick in this range. But if he has any setbacks at all, he could sit out a lot of games as a precaution, considering that Memphis is in a full rebuild with no reason to push their young players into playing if they're not entirely 100% healthy.

Late Round Targets

Ajay Mitchell, G - Oklahoma City Thunder

• Yahoo ADP: 115
• "Easy Click"

Mitchell is back to reprise his role as one of the most important reserves in Oklahoma City this year. He finished last year ranked 106th in 9-CAT in 25.8 minutes per game, and that feels like the absolute floor for him this season, as he could play more minutes with a larger role.

The Thunder traded away Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe this offseason, leaving Mitchell and Jared McCain as the remaining bench guards from last year's rotation. While Cason Wallace should start at shooting guard, Mitchell is going to play a lot of minutes at the two, while also spelling SGA at the point.

He's also going to see an increase in usage anytime SGA or Jalen Williams sit out, and those spike games add up over a full season. I think he's looking at closer to 26-28 minutes a night and I love that he's an efficient scorer (48.5% FG%) and also a solid asset in steals (1.2).

Pelle Larsson, G/F - Miami Heat

• Yahoo ADP: N/A (Fantrax 151)
• "Easy Click"

If you're not familiar with Larsson's game, I think you will be after this season. The Heat turned over a large chunk of their roster this offseason, bringing in Giannis Antetokounmpo to try to revamp a roster that had gone stale.

Giannis and Bam Adebayo are going to need help, and other than Andrew Wiggins, I am not sure where the rest of the scoring is going to come from.

Davion Mitchell is a pass-first point guard and defensive specialist. Tim Hardaway is a bench scorer at this stage of his career; he should be gunning for 25 minutes a night, tops. Klay Thompson is hitting that stage of his career, too, and probably isn't up for starter minutes on the wing.

Miami Heat guard Pelle Larsson has agreed to a new four-year, $60 million contract extension, with a mutual option for the 2030-31 season, Austin Brown and Steven Heumann of CAA Sports tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/wVsi86w9yY

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) September 18, 2026

That leaves Larsson, who went 11.4-3.5.-3.4 last season in 26 minutes a night. He doesn't do much on the defensive end, which is going to hold him back a bit overall, but he's an efficient scorer, shooting 49.6% from the field.

He's not a typical wing guy as he doesn't shoot that many threes, but his ability to contribute points, rebounds, and assists with solid percentages is worth something. If we project him for 30 minutes a night, I don't see how he doesn't crack the top 150 with ease.

Gui Santos, F - Golden State Warriors

• Yahoo ADP: N/A (Fantrax 163)
• "Chasing Upside"

Santos's full-season stats don't jump off the page, but he was a pretty solid asset in fantasy hoops over the final two months of the season. In his final 24 games, he ranked 109th in 9-CAT with averages of 15.5 PTS, 5.7 REB, 3.9 AST, and 1.3 STL in 31 minutes per game. He did that while shooting 48.7% from the floor and 77.5% from the line.

The big caveat there is that he did all of that without Stephen Curry in the lineup, and the Warriors went out and drafted Yaxel Lendeborg in the first round, who should be in direct competition for minutes at small forward and power forward.

I think there will be enough minutes to go around for both players to be productive. Draymond Green is playing the fewest minutes of his career, Georges Niang is a career backup, and the rest of the players on the roster are either guards or big men.

Kristaps Porzingis can't seem to stay healthy, and Al Horford is approaching 100 years of age. The Warriors badly need their young guys to step up, and Santos has shown he's ready for the challenge. Whether he starts at the three or comes off the bench behind Lendeborg may not be all that important. We're just looking for a consistent 25-28 minutes a night for Santos, and he should be able to carve out solid standard league value.

Honorable Mention - Need More Minutes!

No fun ratings for these guys; they're probably all in the last category, dart throws who need things to break just their way. These are not players to draft in standard leagues, but they should be on your radar for deep leagues and some of the first clicks onto your watch lists!

Let's go lightning round on the blurbs; I don't want you closing this article without finishing it!

Oso Ighodaro, C - Phoenix Suns

Mark Williams is hurt and out for what looks like most, if not all of the season. Ighodaro gets the first crack at the starting center gig, with Khaman Maluach as the other option for Phoenix. His production is boring, but he could push for a steal and block per game with a modest bump in playing time, while being a solid source of boards and FG%. But he shot 45% from the line last year, so keep that in mind.

Jaylon Tyson, G/F - Cleveland Cavaliers

Tyson finished at 141 last season while playing 27 minutes for the Cavs. He was a spot starter for Cleveland while they dealt with injuries to multiple different core pieces during the season, and he had a pretty solid run of production in the first half of the season. But ultimately his playing time faded down the stretch once the Cavs acquired James Harden, Dennis Schroder, and Keon Ellis at the deadline.

Jaylon Tyson with a great recovery and block at the rim pic.twitter.com/hC276uR4rB

— Tony Pesta (@Tony_Pesta) October 7, 2025

He is, however, a compelling fantasy player in that he shot 49% from the floor and 44.6% from deep. The arrival of Peyton Watson likely moves him to the bench, but I think he'll still function as the team's sixth man and play quite a bit. If he can carve out 25 minutes or more per game, there's some value here. But only 20-22 minutes and he's probably going to struggle to stick on rosters, as he's still likely to be a low-usage player having to share the court with ball hogs like Harden and Donovan Mitchell.

Cam Spencer, G - Memphis Grizzlies

Spencer finished at 118 in 9-CAT last season playing just 23.8 minutes a night. He's set to come off the bench behind Ty Jerome and also has to battle for minutes with Scotty Pippen Jr. and Walter Clayton Jr. He's an elite assist guy who can hit threes without turning it over - basically the next T.J. McConnell, without the steals.

We really have no idea how these minutes shake out in Memphis, but if they go with the "let's play everyone about 24 minutes a night" strategy with everyone but Boozer, Spencer should have some late-round value.

Jamal Shead, PG - Toronto Raptors

Shead appeared in all 82 games for the Raps last year and averaged 5.4 assists despite playing just 22 minutes per game. He's a bit of a one-trick pony with assists, as he's not a good three-point shooter, and he struggled to an overall FG% of just 36.7%.

But assists are rare, and his negative impact on FG% is mitigated a bit by the low volume of field goal attempts. He should play a similar role this year, but the difference between 22 minutes and 25 minutes would be significant for him and likely be the difference between him being a streamer and a player who deserves to be rostered in standard leagues.

Kyle Filipowski, F/C - Utah Jazz

The former Blue Devil saw his numbers increase across the board last season, and he saw 23 minutes a night compared to just 21 per game in his rookie campaign. He's an offense-minded big man who can chip in with points, rebounds, assists, and threes but doesn't offer much upside in defensive stats.

He'll be coming off the bench this year and likely won't have the benefit of a late-season surge, as Utah has traditionally shut down their main guys early to tank. The rotation is a bit crowded now in Utah, though the departure of Walker Kessler has at least cleared more of a path for Filipowski to play a slightly larger role.

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