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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/4/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Juan Soto, Elly Lawrence Butler, and more.
We've got a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, giving us several spots to choose from for home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Juan Soto, Oneil Cruz, Cody Bellinger, Lawrence Butler, Wyatt Langford, and Willy Adames. Each of these players is either swinging a hot bat or in an exploitable matchup.
The process behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to make sure we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/4/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Wednesday, June 4:
- Juan Soto, New York Mets
- Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees
- Lawrence Butler, Athletics
- Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
- Willy Adames, San Francisco Giants
Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Juan Soto's 3rd HR in his last 4 games! 💥 pic.twitter.com/rMJCM6RzMb
— MLB (@MLB) June 4, 2025
Soto is heating up of late, homering three times in his last four games. He's now slashing .273/.429/.909 in the month of June.
This is a great spot against Dodgers' righty Tony Gonsolin, who gave up four homers in his last start against the Yankees. Gonsolin now has a 5.37 xERA and 2.32 HR/9 in 31 innings this season.
The numbers are even worse for Gonsolin against lefties, as he's allowed a .416 wOBA and four homers in 16.1 innings.
That's bad news for the veteran against a red-hot Soto. Even at an inflated price of (+285) odds, I'm willing to pull the trigger considering how good Soto has looked lately.
Let's take the Mets' superstar to keep the hot streak going against Gonsolin.
Oneil Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Oneil Cruz just hit this ball 122.9 mph.
That is the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era. pic.twitter.com/dZYilTHie1
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) May 25, 2025
Cruz is currently slashing .223/.351/.468 with 12 home runs in 228 plate appearances. The last home run that the Pirates outfielder hit came on May 28th.
But this hitter still has elite batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 24.3% barrel rate.
We've seen Cruz perform much better against righties, including a 148 wRC+.
That's why I'm riding with Cruz against Astros righty Ryan Gusto, who has given up a .410 wOBA against left-handers this season.
While we're paying a relatively expensive price at (+285) odds, this looks like the right spot to target Cruz.
Cody Bellinger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cody Bellinger during his MLB-best 13-game hitting streak:
20-for-53 (.377), 4 2B, 4 HR, 7 BB, 1.129 OPS pic.twitter.com/Q90ltzothX
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) May 19, 2025
Bellinger is currently slashing .253/.329/.439 with eight home runs in 228 plate appearances. But this includes a 10.4% barrel rate, which is a 4.1% increase from last year.
The Yankees outfielder has been much better at home this season, with six of his eight homers coming at Yankee Stadium.
This is an exploitable matchup against Guardians righty Luis L. Ortiz, who has given up five of his seven home runs against left-handed hitters.
It's also worth noting that Ortiz has had issues giving him hard contact, featuring an 11.0% barrel rate.
Add in the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, and you can see why Bellinger looks like a good target here.
With that in mind, let's take a shot on Bellinger to hit his ninth home run of the season at this (+330) cost.
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Lawrence Butler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Lawrence Butler is heating up!
Last 12 Games: 54 PA, .383/.463/.745, 10 XBH, 3 HR, 2 SB#Athleticspic.twitter.com/ANdIp7MYSL
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) June 3, 2025
After a slow start to the season, Butler appears like he's finally getting on track, including a .745 slugging percentage in his last 12 games.
Remember that this is a streaky hitter who went off in the second half last season, homering 13 times after the All-Star Break.
This is a good spot for Butler to go yard once again, as he's facing Twins righty Zebby Matthews, who has given up a .342 wOBA against left-handers this season.
When you add in the park factor of Sutter Health Park playing as one of the most homer-friendly environments, you have to love taking a shot on Butler at (+350) odds. We've seen teams pour on runs in this venue.
It's worth noting that this game has a 9.5-run total, so it's projected to be a high-scoring affair. Let's take a shot on Butler to keep the good times rolling here.
Wyatt Langford OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wyatt Langford has had a rough month but under the hood he shows promise for a bounce back: pic.twitter.com/jBjtpIi5MC
— Ron Dyer (@RonsMancave) June 3, 2025
Langford currently has a .226/.309/.437 slash with 11 home runs in 217 plate appearances.
The dynamic outfielder has strong batted ball metrics, as highlighted by a 14.5% barrel rate. It's only a matter of time before we see a power surge from Langford.
We'll take a shot in this favorable spot in a hitter-friendly environment at George Steinbrenner Field. This stadium plays well for home runs.
It also helps that Langford has a matchup against Shane Baz, who has struggled against righties this season, allowing a .373 wOBA. In fact, nine of the 12 homers Baz has allowed have come against right-handers.
With that in mind, you can see why targeting Langford here is so appealing, especially looking at the price at (+475) odds. This looks like one of the best values on the slate regarding home run props, so we'll pull the trigger here.
Roll with Langford to hit his 12th homer of the year here.
Willy Adames OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Willy Adames in 54 games:
.205 BA
5 HR
25 RBI
-6 DRS
76 wRC+
0.1 fWARWhen will Adames turn it around? pic.twitter.com/o7u2SosZjs
— SleeperSFGiants (@SleeperSFGiants) May 27, 2025
Adames has been a major disappointment for the Giants in his first year with the team, slashing .203/.293/.320 with only five home runs in 264 plate appearances.
However, the barrel rate still looks solid at 10.2%, so there's a good chance that Adames will eventually pick up the pace.
It's worth noting that this is a veteran who slugged 32, 24, and 31 home runs in his last three years. There's enough of a track record here to trust that Adames will get going soon.
We'll take a shot that it happens tonight against Nick Pivetta, who has been much worse on the road, featuring a 4.73 xFIP with a 1.44 HR/9.
If we break those splits down even further, we see that the Padres' righty has a 1.93 HR/9 allowed to righties on the road.
When you consider Adames' body of work along with Pivetta's struggles on the road, you must like this longshot price of (+600) odds.
It's only a matter of time before Adames gets on track, so let's take a shot that it happens tonight.
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