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Dom Petrillo analyzes the fantasy football value of Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow to determine if he can be trusted as a QB1 the rest of 2021 and beyond.
Coming out of LSU with a national championship and 60 touchdown passes, Joe Burrow was the clear number one draft pick for the Cincinnati Bengals. Surprisingly for all, including their own fans, they made the obvious choice and thus far, it has worked out.
After an early portion of his rookie season of being brutalized by opposing defenses, Burrow ended up tearing his ACL in a game against the Washington Football Team and missed the remainder of the season. Bengals fans around the country must have thought, "here we go again." Except things are different this year.
The team did not implode and Joe Burrow did not fade into the background like so many other Cincinnati Bengals draft picks. There was no Ki-Jana Carter tale of disappearance. The Cincinnati Bengals went out, spent some money, and tried to shore up the offensive line with the likes of Riley Reiff. Add to this the return of Jonah Williams and the offensive line has gotten much more talented and able to protect Joe Burrow from the likes of T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett. With the offensive line on the mend and the addition of Ja'Marr Chase through the draft this season, the Cincinnati Bengals have elevated their play and Joe Burrow has led the charge to the top of the AFC North standings.
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The Path Ahead for Joe Burrow
If this season is any indication, the Cincinnati Bengals have their next Boomer Esiason. Not only is he talented in his own right, but Burrow also has a full complement of talent surrounding him on the offense.
With Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in the passing game and Joe Mixon Jr. in the run game, the Cincinnati Bengals have a young and potentially elite set of skill players to grow with Burrow. This was never clearer than just this past week when Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns albeit against a diminished Baltimore Ravens secondary. Despite the secondary being depleted, Joe Burrow did what all good quarterbacks do. He took advantage of a mismatch. Whether or not the defense was at full strength, it is incumbent upon the quarterback to get it done. He certainly did, but can he do it consistently against tougher competition?
Joe Burrow vs. BLT this season (2 games):
941 yards (471/game)
11.2 Y/A
7 TD
1 INTJoe Burrow vs. everyone else this season (13 games):
3224 yards (248/game)
8.1 Y/A
23 TD
13 INTGood thing Joe Burrow gets to play Baltimore twice a year🤷🏼♂️
— Christian Williams (@CWilliamsNFL) December 30, 2021
With 4,165 yards and 30 touchdowns through 15 games in 2021, Burrow has shown his ability to get the offense going. His 14 interceptions need to come down a bit and he will work on this, but the talent is clear. With a talented group of receivers like the one he is working with, the interception numbers will never be to the level of Aaron Rodgers as the Bengals will be throwing the ball at a higher frequency.
Burrow will never be confused with Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, but we still wondered how his ACL injury would affect his rushing. Would it completely fall off the map like it has with so many others returning from injury? So far, the answer is no.
In 10 games last season, Burrow rushed the ball 37 times for 142 yards. This season, although not as numerous, Burrow has still managed to rush the ball for 108 yards on 35 attempts through 15 games. 2.3 rushes per game is down from the 3.8 he averaged last season, but a lot of this is due to his not needing to scramble out of danger as much. The fact he is still able to get out when needed to show his leg is healed. This bodes well for the future.
Is Burrow the Real Deal?
As long as Mike Brown spends money, the Cincinnati Bengals behind Joe Burrow can be a playoff contender for years to come. With Chase, Higgins and Boyd, the Bengals have a trio of receivers to grow into the top unit in the entire NFL. Building upon the defense is now the key to sustained success for the team. The offense is set. Joe Burrow is poised to remain a top 10 and potentially top five quarterback for years to come.
There are some quarterbacks who are great fantasy quarterbacks but terrible for real football. Blake Bortles, Jalen Hurts, and in many weeks, Cam Newton come to mind. Joe Burrow is different. He is a great fantasy quarterback with great weapons. Those weapons and his ability to get something done in the run game, can put him on the level of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes for fantasy production.
He may never reach those lofty heights on the field, but he may not be far off there either. If you have a chance to get Joe Burrow on your fantasy roster, do it. Climb aboard the rocket ship and let him lead you to a title.
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