Surprising Winners from the NFL Draft: Running Backs

June 17, 2021

Dominick Petrillo looks at running backs that saw their fantasy football stocks rise following the NFL draft when their teams elected to not add competition to their position rooms.

There were a couple of teams we thought would take running backs to help bolster their backfield during the 2021 draft. Two of those teams, the Miami Dolphins and Atlanta Falcons, did something even more surprising. Nothing.

This may prove to be the best thing for them. On the other hand, we know it was the best thing for their current running backs in regards to fantasy purposes.

Let us take a look at the two big beneficiaries of this shocking turn of events and find out just how good the result can be for Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis this season as the lead backs in teams with upgraded offenses.

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

2020 Stats (10 games)- 142 rushes, 584 rush yards, three rush touchdowns, 47 targets, 41 receptions, 388 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns

In his second NFL season in 2020, Myles Gaskin had a bit of a breakout year. Although compromised by COVID and limited to 10 games, Gaskin still managed 14.2 rushes/game and 4.1 rec/game in his limited action. This gave the Dolphins enough trust in him to avoid taking a running back in the draft this past April.

A lot of draft pundits and fantasy football fans imagined a scenario where Travis Etienne or Najee Harris would be taken by Miami with the 18th selection. The second of their first-round picks. After taking WR Jaylen Waddle at number six, the Dolphins instead rolled the dice on talented but red-flagged Jaelan Phillips, DE from cross-town University of Miami. These moves not only bolster the offense and defense but also bolsters the chances that Gaskin remains the number one back in the Dolphins' offense for the coming season.

QB Tua Tagovailoa and Waddle will have a connection from their Alabama days. The key to the Dolphins' success, though, will be the run game. Gaskin and his 16 touches/game will need to increase. With new QB Zach Wilson in New York City as well as the high-flying Bills offense in western New York, Miami will look for more of a ball-control offense, thus keeping opposing offenses on the sideline. Much like the offense run in Tennessee, look for a run-first mentality for Brian Flores and company.

This could be the year we see a Dolphins RB be a legitimate, fantasy-relevant RB1. It will be a low-end RB1 but still impressive for a team that has not had such a player in many years.

By not drafting an RB, the Dolphins made many Myles Gaskin dynasty managers extremely happy for sure. This should also translate to redraft leagues in which Gaskin will make a wonderful addition to your team as an RB2 in the late third or fourth round of your draft.

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

2020 Stats (15 games)- 165 rushes, 642 rush yards, six rush touchdowns, 70 targets, 59 receptions, 373 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns

2020 was really the dream season for Mike Davis. He was in a friendly offense in Carolina with Joe Brady, he had a check-down artist in Teddy Bridgewater making sure he got a lot of targets, and RB Christian McCaffrey got injured, allowing him to take over the backfield. These factors all worked together in allowing Davis to make the move to Atlanta as the man in 2021.

With new head coach Arthur Smith coming in from Tennessee, Davis is going to get more work than he has ever had. It will be imperative to him to see if he can hold up to it. Especially behind an offensive line which, to be nice, is not great. They only got worse this offseason with the departure of Alex Mack to San Francisco.

2019 saw Matt Ryan throw more completions than any other QB in the NFL. 2020 saw him with more completions and attempts. This seems to bode well for a player like Davis who showed last season, with 70 targets and 59 receptions, that he can be a pass-catching back. This could be even more important to the success of Atlanta with Julio Jones being traded to Tennessee.

Not only did Atlanta not use a high pick on a running back in the draft, but they also released their main backup in Ito Smith this offseason. This increases even further the workload you can expect to see from Davis moving into his age-29 season. He is getting older, and this is likely only a one-year stint in Atlanta. Expect them to get the most out of him, and 300 touches for the 5’9, 220-pound back is not out of the question. Running backs are a dime a dozen. No team seems to realize this more than Atlanta, who has used up Devonta Freeman, Brian Hill, Todd Gurley, and Ito Smith in recent years. They will do the same with Davis in 2021. This makes him a wonderful pick-up in drafts.

Davis will likely go around the same place as our other talking point Myles Gaskin. But his ceiling is much higher. Not only will he be surrounded by a much better offense, but he will also be in an easier division. Yes, Tampa Bay just won the Super Bowl. But with Drew Brees retiring and the other team being the Carolina Panthers, the division is still a bit weaker than the formally laughable AFC East. This will allow him to have an easier path to a great season.

I would not draft Davis as your RB1, but I would not be surprised at all if, at the end of the season, that is exactly where he finishes. I would even be extremely happy taking Gaskin and Davis as my backfield duo on the same roster. Risky, yes. But possibly worth the risk to get two elite WRs early.

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