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Cleveland Indians shortstop Andres Gimenez is a sleeper and undervalued draft target for 2021 fantasy baseball. Doug Goldring explains why Gimenez is a valuable middle infielder at his ADP.
Andres Gimenez burst onto the scene in the shortened 2020 season. Originally expected to spend the year at the alternate training site for the New York Mets, Gimenez worked his way into a roster spot in spring training with his baserunning instincts and highlight-reel defensive plays, and then soon overtook the slumping Amed Rosario to earn regular at-bats at shortstop.
In the offseason, Cleveland acquired the former top prospect along with Rosario, Josh Wolf, and Isaiah Greene in the blockbuster trade that sent Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets. Gimenez is expected to receive a significant amount of the playing time vacated by Lindor as the new starting shortstop at Progressive Field.
Let's see what he could bring to the table for fantasy baseball teams in 2021.
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Potential Batting Improvement
Gimenez had a solid transition from the minor leagues in his rookie 2020, as his .263/.333/.398 slash line for 2020 was in keeping with his year-over-year minor league statistics. He struck out 21.2 percent of the time, while walking 5.3 percent of the time, almost identical to his 21.3 percent and 5.0 percent in his last full year in 2019 at Double-A Binghamton.
Looking back one season further, there’s a hint at greater potential. In Gimenez’s 37 games at Double-A during 2018, he only struck out 14.4 percent of the time while walking 5.9 percent of the time. It seems Gimenez has sacrificed some contact in order to access more power, as his Isolated Power jumped up from .080 in 2018 to .136 and .137 the following two years. There’s reason to believe that as Gimenez develops further, his contact skills could return to their excellent 2018 rates. Even if Gimenez’s extra-base hitting does take a step back as a result, fantasy managers would happily accept the on-base gains that would come with it.
Another possible outcome is the contact numbers could improve without any sacrifice to his extra-base hitting at all. Through two games of spring training this year, the still just 22-year-old Gimenez has a triple and a home run. It's not a significant sample, but it's something to build on after compiling only 22 home runs across 1657 minor league at-bats.
There’s also room for optimism when looking at Gimenez’s batted ball profile. Throughout his minor league career, Gimenez had a fairly even spray chart, pulling about 39.8 percent of his hits to the right side, while sending about 22.2 percent and 38 percent of his hits to center and right field respectively. In 2020, Gimenez’s pull percentage jumped to 50.5 percent.
It stands to reason that this distribution would settle into greater accord with Gimenez’s historical minor league numbers in 2021, making him more difficult to defend and taking better advantage of his speed. It could also be expected that Gimenez will not again record a 23.3 percent infield fly ball percentage, a number twice as high as the league average.
Collecting Counting Stats
Even if Gimenez doesn’t take those steps forward at the plate, his defensive acumen should keep him on the field. Gimenez had one Defensive Run Saved at each second base, third base, and shortstop in 2020, and an Outs Above Average in the 96th percentile. Playing time means counting stats can accrue, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Gimenez collect a lot of stolen bases.
Speed has always been Gimenez’s signature offensive strength. Gimenez stole 38 bases across two levels in 2018, and another 28 in Double-A in 2019. In 2020, Gimenez averaged a sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second, good for the 94th percentile in the majors. His eight steals in nine attempts represent the best stolen base percentage of his career at any level, which could indicate that some regression could be in order, or conversely that his ability to read pitchers has improved. Only three players (Adalberto Mondesi, Jonathan Villar, and Manuel Margot) averaged more steals per at-bat than Gimenez’s .068 for 2020.
Projecting out his eight steals and 132 plate appearances over a full regular season, Gimenez was on pace for a 30-steal season in 500 PA. Only seven players reached that benchmark in 2019, but it isn’t too much of a leap to imagine Gimenez could accomplish that goal in 2021.
His run-scoring could also get a boost if Gimenez can score a spot atop the Cleveland batting order. Cesar Hernandez currently expects to handle the leadoff at-bats, but his hold on the role could be tenuous after struggling in the several seasons before 2020. If he falters, Gimenez is a logical choice to step into a very desirable spot ahead of Jose Ramirez.
Conclusion
With a current ADP of 196, Gimenez figures to be a bargain. If you miss out on the top power/steals combo options in the first few rounds of your draft, look to Gimenez to ably fill in your middle infield slot late. Even if all he turns out to be is a speed option who won’t crater your rate statistics, that’s something to celebrate at that draft slot. And my money is on Andres Gimenez being a lot more than that.
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