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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 4. Picks with confidence points for Week 4 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
Week 3 had a few good scores in our RotoBaller Reader's Group this week. "Hail To The Victors!" scored 52 points to lead the group this week. For the second straight week, protonjim is in the top three of the scoring entries. He and Brett both had 48 points. Rook, Wel-Cha-Ching, 50 Centi, AJAX Rotoballer, BamaBoy, Kev Shep, and Ilene all had 45 or more points.
Hail To The Victors! takes the group lead with 129 points at the quarter-way mark of the season. Mike is only one point behind. Ilene is in third with 127 points. Three more entries have 126 points. Nine more have 120 points or more.
There hasn't been much separation among the group pickers yet this year. It took 564 points to win the RotoBaller group last year. At the end of the first quarter of the season, no one is still on pace to break that mark. It has been a tougher season so far.
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College Football Pick'em Overview.
This article is about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there. Oklahoma is so bad this year that the Oklahoma/Georgia game isn't even on Pick Em this week. Don't worry, we have a couple of other good options for points wagers.
(1) Oklahoma State over West Virginia
Here's an interesting fact about this series. The road game has won every game in this series since 2021. Oklahoma State was the last one to win a home game in this series.
Michael Hawkins Jr. is perfect for the Rich Rodriguez offense, as we knew he would be. This is going to be one of the most fun games of the weekend.
Vegas has West Virginia as only a slight favorite (-1.5) despite FPI (59.7%) and the pickers (75%) really heavy on West Virginia. ESPN and Vegas have disagreed on eight games this season. Vegas is 6-2 in those games.
That technically doesn't apply here since West Virginia is now favored, but this line opened with the Cowboys favored. I expect anything and everything in this game, which is why I don't have high-confidence points on it.
(2) Iowa over Michigan
I watched all three games for both teams. Michigan's offense has somehow looked worse than Iowa's. We need to keep an eye on the status of Iowa RB Kamari Moulton and TE DJ Vonnahme.
They both missed the game against Northern Iowa last year, but they weren't needed in that game. If news comes out that one or both are missing this game, I'm flipping to Michigan.
Expect a back-and-forth punt-laden defensive battle in this one. Anyone can win in that kind of game, which is why I'll have it low on my list no matter who I end up picking to win. It is worth noting that Michigan has fumbled six times in three games. Iowa takes advantage of those mistakes as well as or better than anyone.
(3) Nebraska over Michigan State
This was a laser ?
Check out the pass by @HuskerFootball QB Anthony Colandrea.
Watch on BTN pic.twitter.com/JhdtbedoTq
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) September 20, 2026
Anthony Colandrea is making the Rhule-Aid go down without a chaser in 2026. Nebraska's offense has been impressive in the early going, and the defense has been outstanding since the first half of the first game.
The bad news is that Nebraska has played Ohio, Bowling Green, and North Dakota. To be fair, UND is ranked fifth in FCS, and they played like it. Michigan State put up a little bit of a fight against Notre Dame.
I think many will hammer this with a lot of confidence points, but I've seen enough red herrings from Nebraska. They are better than last year, but how much better?
(4) Mississippi State over Missouri
Kamario Taylor just led Mississippi State all the way back from 16 down in its SEC opener
18/26, 251 PYDS, 4 PTD, 33 RUYDS, 1 INT vs. South Carolina
The Bulldogs erased a 16 to 0 deficit to win 41 to 34 and move to 3-0. https://t.co/Kea9kaKGCt pic.twitter.com/pnrHzE2LHV
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) September 20, 2026
Missouri's offense has looked solid so far, but no one has been able to stop Kamario Taylor and the Mississippi State offense. The public (86%) and FPI (67.3%) are heavy on the Bulldogs.
Vegas isn't quite there yet. The line opened at -1.5, but there was heavy betting on the Bulldogs, moving the line to -6.5. I feel like this could be a close game, and I don't want a lot of points riding on close games when there seem to be a few lopsided ones on Pick Em this week.
(5) Texas over Tennessee
This is a tough road environment, but Josh Heupel is responsible for three of the worst losses for Texas in the Red River Shootout. He beat Texas 63-21 as the quarterback in 2000. Oklahoma scored 55 on Texas in 2011 and 63 in 2012 with Heupel as the offensive coordinator for Oklahoma.
The point is that Texas can't be thrilled to see him on the other side of the field. I don't think Tennessee is going to roll over for Texas, and Arch Manning has struggled in road games (Florida, anyone?).
This game could stay close, but the Texas defense did a great job on Julian Sayin against Ohio State. They are going to feast on Faizon Brandon in this one.
(6) Oregon over USC
There may be more Oregon fans at the Coliseum than USC fans. From all reports, Dante Moore is no longer tipping the plays. Not that it would matter.
USC allowed 35 to Rutgers, 26 to San Jose State, and 30 to Louisiana. This defense is going to get mauled by Oregon. USC can't cover anyone, and the Oregon WR room is full of track stars.
(7) Mississippi over Florida
There is a reason that people are optimistic about Florida this year. The early success of Jon Sumrall highlights how bad of a fit Billy Napier was at Florida. I still think Napier can coach, but this was the worst place for him.
The line has opened with the Rebels as a road dog. Florida beat Texas in the Swamp last year. Everyone is expecting a massive letdown for the Rebels, and I don't see it. Why?
Because the fans are the only ones who hate Lane Kiffin. Most of the team, including coach Pete Golding and QB Trinidad Chambliss, still like Lane. Most of the others are ambivalent at worst.
This angle of the Ole Miss defense pointing at Lane Kiffin belongs in the Louvre pic.twitter.com/3X17Z1X8yD
— Underdog CFB (@UnderdogCFB) September 21, 2026
Some Ole Miss players were razzing Lane as they went off the field at the end of the game, but we've seen Lane do that from time to time. After the fact, Kiffin probably begrudgingly applauded it.
The point is that the fans had far more invested in that game emotionally than the players did. The players will be fine for Florida.
(8) Boise State over Western Michigan
Not only did Boise play Oregon, but they are playing the top non-power schools out of conference to try and make a case for the CFP. This game has a whole lot riding on it as far as the playoffs are concerned.
This is the last chance that these teams will have to prove they belong. After this, Western Michigan goes into a weak MAC Conference where no one is going to respect what they do.
Boise goes into the inaugural season of the new Pac-12 that no one respects. This is it. Boise took Oregon to the wire and beat a really solid Memphis team. They look like the better team to me.
Dylan Riley exclamation point. Real potential to see him on Sundays. pic.twitter.com/vafc41BHSS
— T.J. Randall (@TJ_Randall12) September 20, 2026
(9) Kansas State over Cincinnati
Kansas State is what Cincinnati wants to be when they grow up. Avery Johnson became the first player in school history to throw for over 200 yards and rush for at least 150 yards in the same game.
That's quite an achievement considering the dual threats we've seen at Kansas State. Michael Bishop, Ell Roberson, Collin Klein, and Josh Freeman all played there. Klein's return as the coach has brought out a different and better Avery Johnson.
(10) James Madison over Old Dominion
The James Madison and Old Dominion are playing for this new official trophy tonight in the Royal Rivalry (Dukes vs Monarchs): pic.twitter.com/doLjekZdfb
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 29, 2023
The winner of the Royal Rivalry gets that sweet trophy up above. The bad part is...Old Dominion has never been in possession of the trophy.
The Dukes are 4-0 against the Monarchs since moving up to FBS (Old Dominion won both meetings in FCS), outscoring Old Dominion 165-99 in those four games. Not much is going to change this year.
