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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 10. Picks with confidence points for Week 10 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I missed everything from 4 to 9 this week, so it was another bad week. It wasn't for everyone. "BamaBoy" got 49 out of a possible 55 points this week. "PAPIPEREZ" was the only other one in the group to break 40 points (41). This caused some movement at the top of the group after it was mostly the same last week.
Ted is still in first place with 334 points, but Dr.SteveBrule is just one point behind. BamaBoy moved into a tie for third with Rad at 330 points. AJAXRotoballer is in fifth place with 327 points. Only three more entries are over 320 points. Only 21 entries are over 300 points, so the entries with a chance of winning have been cut in half with a month left to go.
We are two-thirds of the way through the season, and we haven't had a lot of easy weeks this year. That proves true again this week. We have some tough ones to pick.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article is about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Week 10 features the Holy War, Catholics vs. Convicts, the Beer Barrel game, Alabama-LSU, and Georgia-Mississippi. We even have a leg of the Commander-In-Chief Trophy on the line. What more can you ask for?
(1) Missouri over Texas
Texas beat Ole Miss, but they didn't look that great doing it. They punished a Mississippi State team that has nothing left to play for. These two teams haven't met since the 2017 Texas Bowl.
The last regular-season meeting between the two was in Columbia in 2011. Missouri won that one, but it was only the second win over Texas in the Big 12. Texas has owned the series recently, so what gives?
This throw from Austin Simmons is INSANE https://t.co/vuUVbl32BE
— Connor O'Gara (@cjogara) November 1, 2026
Throws like that from a quarterback against a Texas secondary can be had. Texas hasn't run the ball well lately. Part of that is because of the injury to Hollywood Smothers.
Add Ahmad Hardy, one of the top three backs in college football in 2025, back into the mix for Missouri, and you have an upset waiting to happen. Hardy was used sparingly against Arkansas, but I have a feeling that was because of the rain.
(2) Oregon over Ohio State
The Ducks have settled back with Dylan Raiola, and they are a better team for it. What I saw from Ohio State against USC is concerning, and should rattle every Ohio State fan.
Luke Fahey wasn't flawless, but he played well enough for his team to win. Instead, Ohio State had lapses on defense that it usually doesn't have. They couldn't run the ball against a weak USC front. They were outmuscled by a USC team that has been called soft for the last two months.
Oregon is anything but soft. The Ducks are tough and physical on defense. They are one of the few teams that may be able to scheme enough to limit Jeremiah Smith. There's a chance that Ohio State could come out with a purpose in a home game, but if they're not ready for Oregon, they're getting beat again.
(3) Kentucky over Tennessee
Wes Rucker was one of the loudest voices calling for the return of the Beer Barrel. ?
We may have lost his voice, but his impact will never be forgotten. ?l
Bring. Back. The. Barrel. #ForWes?
#TeamRucker https://t.co/MFqNIvM9I1
— Tri-Star Vols (@TriStar_Vols) October 26, 2026
These two teams played for one of the best trophies in the history of a sport full of great trophies. The barrel was decommissioned in 1997 after an alcohol-related accident claimed the lives of Kentucky students.
This trophy was painted half blue and half orange by a batch of Kentucky students in 2025 to signify their dominance in the rivalry. They rolled it onto the field in 1925 with the words ICE WATER painted on it because it was still during Prohibition.
Tennessee stole the Barrel as a prank in 1953, so Kentucky students retaliated by dog-napping Smokey and holding him for ransom until the Barrel was returned.
Since the trophy was decommissioned, the public doesn't know its whereabouts. Kentucky never got it back after breaking the long Tennessee winning streak in 2011. A coach on the 2019 Tennessee staff posted a photo of the barrel on Twitter, confirming that it still exists.
Kentucky hasn't won this game since 2020 in Knoxville, but that was the COVID year. Neyland Stadium only had around 35,000 people in it instead of 110,000. The last "real" Kentucky win in Knoxville came in 1984.
This year, Kentucky looks like the more polished team. I expect a defensive struggle and a game that anyone can win, but I need to make up points wherever I can. This feels like a good spot with the public 65% on Tennessee.
(4) Air Force over Army
We might see five passes in the entire game combined. It's Cale Hellums vs. Evan Medders in a triple-option steel cage match. The public is heavy on Army (65%), but Vegas has backed off a bit as the line has dropped from -6 to -3.
This is another game where anything can happen, and I'm trying to steal points. If I were closer to first place, I would pick Army at home. Now I'm picking all of the teams with a puncher's chance at a win.
(5) Georgia over Mississippi
This is one that I might move down, and I might flip on. It all depends on how healthy Kewan Lacy is. Auburn's Byrum Brown chopped up this defense with his elusiveness and on designed quarterback run plays. Trinidad Chambliss has been doing that for nearly two years now.
Ole Miss lost to Georgia in the regular season last year, but won the CFP rematch. It's Ole Miss with two losses and its backs against the wall, needing a win this time around.
I still think that Georgia is the better team, but that hasn't meant much this year.
(6) LSU over Alabama
Sam Leavitt hasn't committed a turnover in the last two games while accounting for eight touchdowns. LSU is hitting stride just in time. Alabama's big win was over Kentucky in Lexington back in September.
Their CFP ranking is a total joke, and I think they get exposed here. The Alabama defense hasn't played a good game, with the possible exception of Georgia, a game they still lost.
(7) Utah over BYU
The Holy War lost some luster when BYU lost to Central Florida. The fact is that the BYU offense has struggled without LJ Martin. It's not Bear Bachmeier's fault. He has stepped up in the absence of Martin.
This offense is built on a power run game, a concept which it no longer has. Sione Moa and Bachmeier are good runners, but neither is the threat that Martin is. Defenses are forcing Bachmeier to throw to win.
He's still doing it, but that's not going to happen against Utah. They shut down the Cincinnati offense that just embarrassed Texas Tech the week before.
The CFP rankings already told us what the Committee thinks of the Big 12 again. A nightmare scenario for the Big 12 would be for Utah to lose this game, creating three one-loss teams at the top of the conference.
Last week, it was thought that would be a nightmare scenario for the SEC, but now that the rankings are out, they proved that wouldn't be the case.
(8) Iowa over Northwestern
Oregon poked holes in Northwestern's offense with a tough and physical defense. Iowa pioneered that kind of defense. This is coming at a discount with 41% of the public on Northwestern.
The Vegas odds are still in favor of Northwestern, but there's more juice on the Iowa side. That's usually an indicator that Vegas is trying to get bets on Northwestern.
(9) Miami (FL) over Notre Dame
“I didn’t like ‘Catholics vs. Convicts’ when I was coaching. I felt that was unfair because not all of our team was Catholic.”-Coach Holtz
☘️ ? ? ? https://t.co/GBcHxygTor— Holtz's Heroes Foundation (@HoltzHeroes) November 1, 2026
A lot has changed since the 1988 showdown that created this nickname, but this is the most important game in the series since. Miami has won the last two. Notre Dame won the previous four.
CJ Carr's first collegiate game was in this rivalry last year. A lot has changed since then. Some things haven't. Notre Dame hasn't beaten a ranked team since the 2024 CFP.
(10) UCLA over Minnesota
Minnesota hasn't been able to get traction on the defenses of Iowa, Indiana, or Michigan. In the middle of that, they got dominated by Purdue. The UCLA defense is going to shut them down as well.
