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Mike's Week 10 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, November 3 through Friday, November 6, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Why would we expect a normal week? Lincoln Riley's job was saved against Ohio State's backup quarterback. Thomas Castellanos got redemption in Lubbock. Northwestern and Wisconsin were exposed. South Carolina became a three-loss team that is making noise in the CFP discussion. We still have four more weeks of this!
With the move from October to November comes the move from Weekday Conference USA to MACtion. Judging by the way the MAC has looked so far this year, none of us are ready for the next three weeks of weekday games. We have 63 total FBS vs. FBS games this week. 12 of them happen before Saturday. We can make some money on these!
If you have questions about any of these games or the Wake vs. Merrimack game, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 10
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
You should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the 2019 and 2020 articles, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
I finished at .500 with picks, but still lost some points thanks to overconfident bets on some teams. I know that happened at least twice this week, so I don't have high hopes of getting out of the hole I'm in this week.
Let's tackle the 12 picks before the Saturday games before we check out the results of Week 9. The early results aren't looking good.
Ohio (-13.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's the start of 2026 MACtion, which means Ohio has no chance of covering this. It's Turnover Tire time.
MACTI?N! https://t.co/NQ9XVfKwJO
— MACtion (@MACSports) November 2, 2023
Pick: Akron +13.5
Buffalo at Miami (OH) (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Really? The last game that Buffalo lost by a touchdown was against Penn State on September 19. That includes a game against Western Michigan and at Toledo.
Pick: Buffalo +6.5
Ball State at Massachusetts (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like the half, but UMass with Pop Watson back should be one of the better teams in the MAC.
Pick: Massachusetts -3.5
Toledo (-25.5) at Sacramento State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Sacramento State looked good at home last week. This feels a touch high, but I'm not touching it.
Pick: Sacramento State +25.5
Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Chippewas finally moved on from Angel Flores. That's a gift that should keep on giving.
Pick: Central Michigan +1.5
UTSA (-6.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is going to be another fun one on Thursday night. Still...is FAU going to lose at home? UTSA demolished Tulane on the road, but Tulane can't move the ball. All FAU does is move the ball.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +6.5
James Madison (-14.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like the half, and JMU might be cursed. I'm not touching this.
Pick: James Madison -14.5
Virginia Tech at SMU (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Come on...SMU just lost to Syracuse. This defense is not living up to its end of the bargain.
Pick: Virginia Tech +6.5
South Florida at East Carolina (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bulls moved the ball much better with Luke Kromenhoek in there last week.
Pick: South Florida +1.5
Nebraska (-4.5) at Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Illinois has won four out of the last five meetings against Nebraska. For some reason, they have Nebraska's number right now. The way Nebraska lost the last one on a Friday night in 2024 still haunts Nebraska fans. Can it happen again?
Pick: Illinois +4.5
(22) New Mexico (-9.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
New Mexico's offense was a mess last week, but Nevada can't move the ball either.
Pick: New Mexico -9.5
TCU at (24) Arizona (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arizona is tough at home, and I expect them to win this game, but by how much? The TCU defense has been very good. I don't have a lot of confidence in this one.
Pick: Arizona -9.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 9 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My results will follow.
Delaware at Western Kentucky (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was easy money. We can count on Nick Minicucci.
Sam Houston at Missouri State (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I really thought that Phil Longo would fare well at Sam Houston, but I feel like this team never recovered from being nomads for all of 2025.
Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Where was this Rickie Collins last year at Syracuse?
Jacksonville State (-3.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. The New Mexico State quarterback situation is a total mess and can't be trusted.
Florida Atlantic at North Texas (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not even mad that I missed this because I hammered the over. This was one of the most entertaining games of the weekend.
Caden Veltkamp to Easton Messer is one of the best QB-WR connections in the country. FAU’s passing attack is so scary (18th nationally in EPA per dropback)
Veltkamp came into tonight top 10 in the country in TD passes and is now up to 20, and Messer now has 11 total TDs this season
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) October 30, 2026
Troy at James Madison (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The dog poop curse is real folks https://t.co/WQDdujmEqg
— College Football Zone (@CollegeFBonX) October 30, 2026
The curse is real. James Madison lost to Troy with a backup quarterback...
Tulane (-10.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Charlotte finally has a pulse on offense behind Conner Harrell and Henry Rutledge. Moral victories still count for now.
Baylor at Central Florida (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was absolute dominance by the Baylor defense.
Kent State (-9.5) at Sacramento State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sac State finally got one!
(5) Notre Dame (-28.5) vs. Navy at Foxborough: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Navy controlled the first half, and Notre Dame wasn't able to pull away until the fourth quarter.
(22) Arizona at (13) Texas Tech (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I never would have guessed that Thomas Castellanos was the missing link for Tech.
(19) SMU (-10.5) at Syracuse: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The outright win surprised me a little, but Syracuse is starting to find its stride. It's reminiscent of the 2025 version before Steve Angeli got hurt.
(25) Wisconsin at Iowa (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was my colossal failure on Saturday, but at least the under bets hit. Only Iowa could score 30 points and still hit the under.
California at North Carolina State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should have maxed this out. Cal is completely lost and the most undisciplined team that I've seen this year.
Boston College at Duke (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. Nate Sheppard is the real deal.
DUKE HAS NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE NATE SHEPPARD ??
20 CAR, 1 REC, 129 YDS, 5 TDS vs Boston College
Nobody in 100+ years of Duke football had ever run for 5 in a game. A true sophomore just did it on Halloween. https://t.co/7MIlyKS2bT
— CFB Performances (@performancesCFB) October 31, 2026
Illinois (-2.5) at Maryland: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I flipped on this one and shouldn't have. Katin Houser looked good in his return.
UAB at South Florida (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Michael Van Buren Jr. experiment seems to be over in Tampa. Luke Kromenhoek looked strong in this one.
Bowling Green at Western Michigan (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That stupid half. It was that kind of week.
Michigan (-15.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Rutgers scored 21. Michigan was never a threat to cover.
Auburn at (12) Mississippi (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That was a fourth quarter to forget for Auburn. It was close until then.
Marshall (-2.5) at Old Dominion: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It was a forgettable day for Jaxon Potter. This still might not mean that Marshall is good.
Kansas State at Colorado (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kansas State is lost without Avery Johnson.
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sure...the one game that I don't pick Coastal...
Connecticut at Air Force (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Air Force offense keeps right on trucking without Liam Szarka.
Temple at East Carolina (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
ECU won, but this has to be one of the strangest sequences I have ever seen.
A referee just broke one of our players legs. You can’t make this up https://t.co/QnqK3e3uEV
— No Quarter ECU (@ECU_NoQuarter) October 31, 2026
Louisiana Tech (-5.5) at South Alabama: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This team needs to go back to Bishop Davenport. Meanwhile, Blake Baker is quietly having one of the best QB seasons in FBS.
Stanford at Louisville (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is why I don't bet on Stanford. This game played out much like I thought it would, but Louisville's offense went off in the second half.
(17) Florida vs. (3) Georgia (-12.5) at Atlanta: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Florida defense held up pretty well, but it's hard to hang around when your quarterback is doing things like this.
Aaron Philo WHAT ARE YOU DOING. Florida turns it over vs Georgia https://t.co/oLRCuLMZ7T
— gmannVOLS (@gmannVOLS) October 31, 2026
There should be no question about who should start at quarterback for Florida for the rest of the season. This might be the worst interception I have ever seen.
Minnesota at (4) Indiana (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It may be time to hit that panic button on the Indiana offense. Josh Hoover is still doing better than last year, but teams aren't afraid of Indiana's downfield passing game. That's a huge problem.
Josh Hoover has been neutered in the name of making sure that he doesn't throw interceptions. I'm not sure which is worse.
Arizona State at (8) BYU (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Arizona State has been better without Cutter Boley, but BYU is not even close to the same team without LJ Martin. Bear Bachmeier does what he can, but someone else needs to step up.
(20) Northwestern at Oregon (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Dylan Raiola looked the part. This was the worst game played by the Northwestern defense this year. The offense was good enough.
Kansas at TCU (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I got lucky with the half here, so I guess we're even. Cole Ballard has had games like this throughout his career at Kansas.
Colorado State at Utah State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Every trend pointed toward Utah State, and I ignored it. That's on me.
UTEP at North Dakota State (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This one hurt. NDSU dominated, and still missed by that half.
Florida International at Liberty (-13.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Liberty offense is quite a sight to behold. They control the ball really well, but don't have a star. Deshawn Purdie probably could be, but he doesn't try to do too much, unlike his tenure at Charlotte.
Southern Mississippi (-3.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
For the second straight week, I'm nailing those one-point bets.
(6) Utah (-7.5) at Cincinnati: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was domination by Utah. They proved who the best team in the Big 12 is this week.
Virginia at Wake Forest (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wake Forest has taken no prisoners.
The Deacs have been dismantling teams. https://t.co/YCYGWW3FeB
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 1, 2026
This is what you need to do with a weak schedule, and no team with a weak schedule has done so this year. That's why I still have Wake Forest high in my rankings.
New Mexico (-14.5) at San Jose State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I give up. Leave it to the AP to finally rank New Mexico after they play their worst game of the season. It's fitting, honestly...
Nevada at (7) UCLA (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have bet more. The UCLA defense isn't dependent on the quarterback. Ty Dieffenbach will do fine filling in for Nico Iamaleava because the Bruins won't have to really lean on him until the CFP. Yes, the Bruins are going. This schedule is awful.
South Carolina at Oklahoma (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is the most embarrassing home loss since 1998. This was worse than TCU in 2005. Ben Arbuckle was fired, but I'm not sure that's enough. His scheme was not that bad. The players are.
This was the second time I've seen Oklahoma give up this year. That didn't happen under Bob Stoops or Lincoln Riley. We're back to the John Blake ages, and it really doesn't feel good since there was plausible optimism for this season.
Purdue at Penn State (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I need ot quite judging Purdue on one good game. They haven't been good since.
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, has Billy Napier lost control at James Madison already? That was quick...
(24) Oklahoma State (-9.5) at Iowa State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Iowa State just has Oklahoma State's number. It's hard to explain. The Oklahoma State defense is holding the offense back, much like the North Texas defense did last year.
Clemson at Florida State (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Honestly, Mike Norvell deserved to be fired after this one.
Washington State at San Diego State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The San Diego State run game is back.
(1) Miami (FL) (-14.5) at North Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Everyone points at the two onside kicks, but I think those were both called correctly. Were they very close calls? Yes, but they were also right. That needs to matter. This was the bad one.
One of the worst calls I’ve ever seen.
This is atrocious yall. https://t.co/GR1dTcIWxw
— Jon (@JonScast) November 1, 2026
That wiped out a crucial North Carolina touchdown and could have affected the outcome of the game.
(2) Ohio State (-6.5) at USC: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Did Luke Fahey struggle? Yes, he did, especially on some deep passes. However, he performed reasonably well for a guy in his first career start. The Ohio State defense played a terrible game.
Every other unit let Fahey down except for Jeremiah Smith. This was a team effort loss.
Mississippi State at (11) Texas (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We discussed this earlier in the year when Mississippi State lost both Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell. NIL has helped the Bulldogs with starters, but they don't have the depth behind them that teams at the top of the SEC have.
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Holden Geriner has found his footing. The Pitt offense is looking almost as good as it did with Mason Heintschel.
(23) Missouri (-9.5) at Arkansas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ahmad Hardy had limited work in his return, but I mostly think it was because of the rain. He looked strong in his few plays. Getting a guy like Hardy back in the middle of the season is like acquiring a free agent in the middle of the season. That doesn't happen in college (yet).
Washington at Nebraska (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can’t make it up for Nebraska man. Their football team has to be cursed.
Nebraska’s defense went 57 minutes giving up 3 points and then gave up a 4th & 18 to extend the game as Williams gets popped and it’s caught on sideline. Than the give up the TD https://t.co/PNNQi93YWK
— Garrett Armbrust (@4thandsaturday) November 1, 2026
It has to be in the head of the team, right? Nebraska's failure in one-score games is longstanding and has spanned several coaches now. When does it end?
Army at Memphis (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Marcus Stokes got his groove back.
Texas State at (20) Boise State (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Boise got off to a huge lead, then Brad Jackson stormed back. Maddux Madsen got hurt, and it was Max Cutforth who led Boise to victory in the best game of Week 10.
This Boise State-Texas State fourth quarter has had 38 points.
Six touchdowns and four missed 2-point conversions. https://t.co/oiESnfolCn
— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) November 1, 2026
Northern Illinois at UNLV (-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UNLV got the full Jackson Arnold experience in this one, except it usually doesn't come with a win...
Oregon State (-5.5) at Fresno State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I guess this means that the honeymoon is over for the Beavers. Fresno controlled every part of this game.
College Football Betting Season Results
I knew early on that this was going to be a bad week. It was my worst week of the season. I went 21-35, which put me at 223-277 on the season. .500 is an unachievable dream right now with only a month left.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-0 (24-20) = 4
2. 10-15 (78-101) = -46
3. 5-11 (85-86) = -3
4. 4-4 (26-46) = -80
5. 0-5 (10-24) = -70
I got the week that I thought I was going to get last week with all of the upsets. There were just as many this week, just in different spots. I lost 51 points this week, which is in the bottom five of worst weeks since I started counting points in 2015. I'm down 195 points on the season. The only thing that has saved me is the few over-unders that I went heavy on.
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