Second-Year Dynasty Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Buy or Sell: Sophomore Risers and Fallers (2025)

Joey Sheiner's second-year quarterback risers and fallers for fantasy football. Should you buy or sell Michael Penix Jr. Bo Nix, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy in dynasty leagues?

Dynasty fantasy football leagues are all about the future, and the 2024 rookie class provided managers with big hopes for said future. The future looks especially bright for last year's crop of rookies at the quarterback position. Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix thrived, while Caleb Williams and Drake Maye showed flashes of brilliance. And although they started just three games between them, Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy will take over as full-time starters for their respective teams in 2025.

But how will things unfold for these second-year quarterbacks? These young and exciting players are incredibly valuable in dynasty fantasy football leagues, especially in superflex formats. That makes them a hot topic in terms of trades. So, which of these QBs should be bought or sold in dynasty? 

Here are four second-year quarterbacks to buy or sell this offseason.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Some may see Nix as a sure shot to succeed next season and throughout his entire career. Following a rough first month of the season, Sean Payton adjusted the offense to better fit Nix's needs, and the former Oregon Duck took flight. Nix completed over 66% of his passes and threw for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns against 12 interceptions on the year, finishing as the QB7 in fantasy football. 

BO NIX WITH AN ABSOLUTE DIME TO Marvin Mims Jr. FOR A 93-YARD TOUCHDOWN 😤 pic.twitter.com/DDtQPMFD80

— ESPN (@espn) December 3, 2024

However, despite what looked like a successful rookie year, there are a couple of worrying factors for Nix in 2025 and beyond. Troy Aikman mentioned one of these factors at the end of that last clip - that Nix often didn't trust the Broncos' offensive line despite it being one of the league's best.

Payton's solution to this problem was having Nix get rid of the ball more quickly - from Weeks 9-18, no quarterback threw more checkdowns than Nix, who averaged a measly 6.6 yards per attempt during that span. And while that gave him confidence to make plays when his number was called, Nix was sheltered when he needed to be thrown into the fire.

To make matters worse, the Broncos' running game should be much improved in 2025. With second-rounder RJ Harvey and free-agent signing J.K. Dobbins joining Nix in the backfield, Payton will surely look to dial up more run plays next season. A lower frequency of passing plays combined with a higher frequency of checkdowns caps Nix's ceiling for the foreseeable future.

Verdict: SELL

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

And speaking of being thrown into the fire, no rookie quarterback felt hotter flames than Maye. He became the starter in Week 6, and from that point on, he had more quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds) than any passer except Joe Burrow, who had 124 more dropbacks than Maye. His receivers were also among the league's worst; as a result, Maye was forced into throwing 73.4% of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. 

However, Maye still showcased his incredible talent despite those obstacles. Maye's athleticism was as good as advertised, but his composure and reading of the field were better than expected. And his supporting cast looks a whole lot better going into 2025: a retooled offensive line and a ton of new weapons will prop Maye up rather than dragging him down.

DRAKE. FREAKING. MAYE. 🤯

ROOKIE SENDS IT TO OT

(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/OL34HUwzLW

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 3, 2024

Veteran receivers Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins will help significantly on third downs and in the red zone. And two rookies, running back TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Kyle Williams, will add some much-needed explosiveness to the Patriots' offense. Also joining New England is veteran offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who can certainly teach Maye a thing or two after his time spent coaching Tom Brady.

The arrow is pointed straight up for Maye in 2025. He may not play like a superstar right away, but the Patriots have made all the right moves to give him long-term success. Expect Maye to emerge as one of the league's best young quarterbacks and finish as a QB1 in fantasy football for the first time.

Verdict: BUY

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

There are few teams better equipped to develop a young quarterback than the Minnesota Vikings. They have the best receiver in the NFL in Justin Jefferson and one of the league's best No. 2 receivers in Jordan Addison. They have great weapons at running back and tight end in Aaron Jones and T.J. Hockenson, and repaired a weak offensive line in the offseason. And to top it all off, the Vikings are led by one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, Kevin O'Connell.  

So, acquiring McCarthy in dynasty is a slam dunk, right? Not exactly. Although he hasn't played a snap of NFL football yet, there is already cause for concern with the former Michigan QB. The reason McCarthy did not play in his rookie season was a torn meniscus before the season, which could pose trouble in the short- and long-term. McCarthy likes to use his legs and get outside the pocket, so he could be in for a rude awakening in the NFL if his mobility is depleted.

Another reason for concern is the offense McCarthy ran at Michigan. While it was a pro-style offense, the Wolverines focused heavily on the run and protecting the football, which is certainly not how the Vikings play. O'Connell runs a pass-heavy scheme that looks to punish defenses in all areas of the field.

WOW. Sam Darnold TO JUSTIN JEFFERSON FOR A 97-YARD TD!pic.twitter.com/5XZ1yTEorF

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 15, 2024

The Vikings liked McCarthy enough to draft him 10th overall in 2024, but don't be fooled by that and his situation. McCarthy is replacing the talented Sam Darnold, whose 2024 season might not be replicable (66% completion rate, 4,319 yards, 35 TDs, and 12 INTs).

McCarthy's movement could be limited due to his meniscus, and the offense is entirely different from the one he piloted at Michigan. And the weight of expectations upon his shoulders is a heavy one, as he is expected to fulfill Vikings fans' hopes of a playoff run right out of the gate. Expect McCarthy to disappoint this year and potentially in the long run as well.

Verdict: SELL

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

Penix started just three games in 2024 and was a mixed bag to say the least. The left-handed rookie threw for 775 yards, three TDs, and three INTs in relief of struggling veteran Kirk Cousins.

While those numbers might seem poor, there's more to look at beneath the surface. While he wasn't a complete passer in 2024, Penix displayed an incredibly live arm and great instincts, far more so than the stats would lead you to believe. Two of Penix's three interceptions last season were due to drops by his receivers and were entirely not his fault.

Brutal red zone INT from Michael Penix. Just a classic rookie mistake of thinking Kyle Pitts could catch a football. He'll learn.pic.twitter.com/8zwhJRLB85

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 22, 2024

The Falcons also sport a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball to aid Penix's growth. Drake London has emerged as one of the league's best wide receivers, and Darnell Mooney is a solid Robin to London's Batman. And unlike any of the quarterbacks on this list, Penix will share the backfield with a superstar running back in Bijan Robinson.

Head coach Zac Robinson comes from the same coaching tree as O'Connell and will also encourage his quarterback to air it out early and often, just as O'Connell will with McCarthy in Minnesota. But unlike McCarthy, Penix played in a spread offense at Washington that emphasized downfield passing. Robinson will likely work some of those concepts into the Falcons' offense in 2025 to help Penix get going.

It's hard to ignore both the talent and the situation. Get Penix while you can, because he's going to impress early and often in 2025 and beyond. 

Verdict: BUY

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