RADIO
We've reached a key benchmark in the NFL offseason. The peak of free agency is long gone, the NFL Draft has concluded, and players are starting to hit the field in preparation for the 2023 season.
Many players, from rookies to veterans, must adapt to new teams, situations, and schemes as the summer approaches. These changes significantly impact fantasy football leagues, and we are already seeing trends in the latest Average Draft Position (ADP) reports.
ADP is not the only tool for evaluating value or upside, but it provides a strong understanding of how fantasy football managers across the world view each player. We see shifts in ADP as we receive reports and updates from offseason workouts. This movement in draft positions allows us to evaluate trends and players who are rising or falling. Let's dive in!
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Tight Ends - ADP Risers
| Team | ADP Change |
| NO | +54 |
| DET | +82 |
| CIN | +89 |
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints (+54)
This offseason was a welcome one for Johnson, who saw the Saints trade away Adam Trautman and ignore the tight end position in the draft. New Orleans' most notable addition to the position was Foster Moreau (Hodgkin's lymphoma), who is expected to play in 2023 but doesn't represent a significant threat to pass Johnson on the depth chart.
Johnson had a career year in 2022, catching 42 passes for 508 yards and seven touchdowns while undeniably emerging as the Saints' best tight end. He did well stretching the field, posting an aDot of 9.4 (sixth among tight ends) and 296 unrealized air yards (ninth). His efficiency and fantasy value were equally apparent. Johnson finished the year with a 22.1% dominator rating, +37.1 EPA, 111.6 QBR per target, and 2.07 fantasy points per target.
Considering Johnson made significant strides last season, fantasy managers should be excited about how his production could grow with Derek Carr now under center. Johnson's rise in ADP is entirely justified, as he has the potential to be a top-10 tight end in 2023.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (+82)
While tight ends like Darnell Washington (Steelers) and Brenton Strange (Jaguars) joined crowded tight end rooms, LaPorta found his way to Detroit, where he figures to be the Lions' starting tight end.
LaPorta should instantly slot in as the Lions' replacement for T.J. Hockenson, who Detroit flipped to Minnesota at last year's trade deadline. Hockenson averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game over five weeks with the Lions in 2022, and there's an opportunity for LaPorta to have a fantasy impact of his own despite being a rookie.
The second-round pick posted great athletic metrics and stats at Iowa, including a 4.59 40-yard dash time and a 25.5% dominator rating. Over his final two seasons with the Hawkeyes, LaPorta totaled 111 catches, 1,326 yards, and four touchdowns.
Historical fantasy data frowns upon rookie tight ends, so we should certainly keep the hype under control when it comes to LaPorta. Still, there's reason to be excited. After all, he is joining an up-and-coming offense that needs a stable option at the tight end position. As SportsGrid's Davis Mattek points out in the tweet below, watching LaPorta turn in a campaign similar to rookie Greg Dulcich is not a far-fetched possibility.
Irv Smith Jr., Cincinnati Bengals (+89)
Before the 2022 season, the Bengals needed an upgrade at the tight end position, so they signed Hayden Hurst. He had never been utterly dominant but still had the makings of an NFL starter who filled an essential need for the Bengals. The result? Hurst averaged 3.9 receptions and 31.4 yards per game in his first season with Cincinnati.
It wasn't a Pro Bowl-caliber campaign, but it didn't need to be. The Bengals had plenty of firepower with Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. Hurst merely provided another reliable veteran option in the passing game.
Now, as we gear up for the 2023 season, the Bengals find themselves in a similar situation with new tight end Irv Smith Jr. Similar to Hurst, there has been plenty of excitement surrounding Smith Jr. over the years. But he never panned out as the offensive staple the Vikings hoped he would become. Now, he could fill a Hurst-esque role in the Bengals' offense as they need snaps and a handful of receptions per game from their starting tight end.
Facing little competition, Smith Jr. should meet expectations as long as he stays healthy. If he does, we can expect him to finish as a top-24 tight end in fantasy football, justifying his recent ADP surge.
Tight Ends - ADP Fallers
| Team | ADP Change |
| NYG | -37 |
| BUF | -47 |
| PIT | -87 |
Daniel Bellinger, New York Giants (-37)
The Giants made a splash this offseason by flipping a third-round pick to the Raiders in exchange for Darren Waller. The move paved the way for Waller to become an instant target hog in the Giants' offense. Waller's addition also effectively halted Bellinger's time as the team's top tight end. As a result, Bellinger's fall down draft boards is very unsurprising.
It's worth noting that the Giants love what they have in both Waller and Bellinger, and there is an opportunity for the two to coexist. Expect New York to utilize plenty of 12 personnel, putting both Waller and Bellinger on the field. Waller is an elite pass-catching option who can stretch the field, while Bellinger is a great blocker who can also serve as a viable outlet in the short-yardage passing game.
Still, it's hard to justify drafting a team's second tight end, no matter how much hype they generate in the offseason. Bellinger's time will come, but he's not a dependable redraft option.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills (-47)
The Bills made a key addition to their offense this offseason by drafting Dalton Kincaid in the first round. The move wasn't a surprise considering Buffalo had a clear need for a young pass-catcher; however, the selection still turned some heads since Dawson Knox has developed into a very talented tight end for the Bills.
Over the last three months, Knox's ADP has dropped 47 spots, which feels like an overreaction to the Kincaid selection. For starters, the two can coexist. Both players are very talented receivers, but Knox has an advantage around the goal line11 given that he's bigger physically than the rookie.
Additionally, Buffalo doesn't have a deep group of wide receivers and could be better at running back, so Knox and Kincaid should see plenty of targets. Finally, the Bills signed Knox to a four-year, $52 million extension last September. That's a substantial financial commitment for a tight end, and it shows that Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott view Knox as a central part of their offense long-term.
While the addition of Kincaid does create another mouth to feed, it also opens up the offense for players like Knox. The 26-year-old should continue producing in his fifth pro season, making him a decent fantasy option again. The drop in ADP is a blessing in disguise for fantasy managers who can now get a fringe top-12 tight end at a significantly lower price.
Darnell Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers (-87)
With his incredible athleticism and physicality, Washington stole the show at the NFL Scouting Combine. His performance turned heads and even sparked a conversation about whether the 6-foot-7, 265-pound tight end was the best draft prospect at his position. In the following weeks, though, the hype simmered, and it became clear that Washington wouldn't be the first tight end off the board.
As the draft continued, Washington eventually heard his name called in the third round when Pittsburgh selected him 93rd overall. The Georgia product is now stuck behind Pat Freiermuth on the Steelers' depth chart.
Freiermuth finished as the eighth-ranked tight end in PPR leagues last season and has become a reliable target for Kenny Pickett. He figures to be a central part of the Steelers' long-term plans.
Given his excellent blocking skills, Washington still offers value to the offense, so his selection is good news for players like Pickett and Najee Harris. However, regarding Washington himself, the redraft value is almost nonexistent. Look elsewhere if you're seeking late-round value at the tight end position.
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