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Aidin Ebrahimi's five fantasy football bold predictions for Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season. Expert predictions for Derrick Henry, Drake Maye, Darren Waller, J.J. McCarthy, and Chris Olave.
It sounds crazy, but after Week 4, we'll have completed 22.2% of the 2026 NFL regular season. Time flies! Last week's bold predictions article had an equal rate of hits and misses. Trevor Lawrence and Garrett Wilson had outstanding games, and Lawrence could have done even more if he didn't sacrifice a rushing touchdown to "help support the Bhayshul Tuten fantasy people out there". Justin Herbert had yet another concerningly mediocre performance, failing to capitalize on his defense generating five turnovers. D'Andre Swift had a fine revenge game, though it was some way off his revenge game last season, and T.J. Hockenson did nothing meaningful.
Now, we will look at five of my boldest predictions for Week 4. Some of these predictions are bolder than the others, and there's a chance none of them will even come to fruition. But hey, what's the fun in going for the obvious picks every single week?
Without further ado, let's dive in and find out why my Week 4 bold predictions include Derrick Henry, Drake Maye, Darren Waller, J.J. McCarthy, and Chris Olave.
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Derrick Henry Continues His Remarkable Scoring Run
Since 1980, seven players have scored six or more rushing touchdowns in their first three games of a season. No player achieved that feat from 2006 to 2022 until Raheem Mostert did so at the start of the 2023 season.
TD NO. 2 FOR DERRICK HENRY 👑@BALvsDAL on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/6U0j4LeXns— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2026
Derrick Henry and Josh Allen have both done this to start the 2026 season, the first time in NFL history that two players have accomplished this during the same season.
They will be pleased to know the other five players on the list all finished the season with at least 17 rushing touchdowns. If Henry ends up scoring 17+, it would bring him even closer to Emmitt Smith's all-time rushing TD record.
I talked about my love for revenge games last week, so what if Henry has a legendary performance in his first game against his once-beloved Tennessee Titans?
If he scores a rushing hat trick (three rushing TDs), he'll become only the fourth player in NFL history to run for nine touchdowns in his first four games of a season, joining Stephen Davis (1999), Smith (1995), and the legendary Jim Brown (1958).
The Titans encourage teams to run down their throats. They have allowed the second-most rushing attempts (86) and the eighth-most rushing yards (323) so far this season.
Henry is more than motivated to face his former team. "They shipped me out," Henry initially told ESPN's Jamison Hensley, before adding, "it's always love, but it ain't going to be much love on Sunday, though."
Drake Maye’s Slide Comes to an End
I predicted Trevor Lawrence to finally "solve" the Patriots' defense last week, and also predicted Drake Maye to struggle in my Week 3 fantasy landmines article.
Both of those predictions came true, and with Cooper Rush's benching and Baker Mayfield's injury, there is a legitimate case to be made for Maye being the worst current starting QB in the NFL right now.
It's shocking to see a man who finished second in MVP voting and looked so comfortable last year turning into one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
Yes, his schedule has gotten more difficult, but that isn't the only reason. He needs a confidence boost to prove he can still hang with the very best.
Maybe a matchup against Josh Allen and the Bills, an elite opponent who he's had success against before, could bring his confidence back to its 2025 levels.
Maye led two consecutive touchdown drives in the second half before sealing the game with a game-winning drive in their matchup at Buffalo last season.
The Bills' defense has allowed the fifth-most passing yards this season and allowed 31 points in each of their first two games of the year. If Maye can't do what he's done before, which is having a good game at Buffalo, then it might truly be over for him.
Darren Waller Turns Back the Clock
Darren Waller isn't even supposed to be in the league right now, but he's making the most of his return following his initial retirement.
Darren Waller with his SECOND TD of the game 😤
📺: FOX/FOX One pic.twitter.com/7l0FAG8guo
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 20, 2026
Waller felt content to walk away from the game, having gone from a failed WR with substance abuse issues to a Pro Bowl TE in the first act of his career.
He reversed that decision in 2025, scoring prolifically for the Dolphins despite some injuries, and has already made his mark on the Carolina Panthers.
The team hasn't had a tight end with over 350 receiving yards in a season since the then-34-year-old Greg Olsen in 2019, but Waller, also 34, is hoping to break that streak.
Waller has already put up 112 yards and two touchdowns, and is on track for over 600 yards and 11 touchdowns if he stays healthy. That's obviously a big if, but he will come closer to that milestone if he has a truly dominant performance against a porous defense.
Luckily for him, the Detroit Lions are coming to town. The Lions rank dead last in fewest points and passing yards allowed, and have conceded a whopping 33.4 PPR points per game to opposing TEs, by far the highest mark in the league.
Juwan Johnson, Noah Fant, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Kenyon Sadiq, and Jeremy Ruckert have all scored touchdowns against this defense, and it feels like a prime opportunity for Waller to record his fifth top-six PPR tight end finish in his last 13 games.
J.J. McCarthy Comes off the Bench and Leads a Scoring Drive
Bold? Very. Crazy? Maybe not.
The New York Giants shocked everyone by trading for J.J. McCarthy, and it was also a bit shocking to see the Vikings giving up on their former first-round pick after just one year as a starter despite their quarterback issues.
With Sam Darnold having won a Super Bowl and Kirk Cousins being a legitimate MVP candidate at the start of the 2026 season, there is a lot of hope for former Vikings QBs succeeding.
McCarthy, who will now wear the No. 18 shirt, will sit behind Jameis Winston initially, but it can all change as soon as this week. McCarthy has already impressed head coach John Harbaugh, brother of his former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, and the former Ravens HC spoke about him in glowing terms.
"He had a really good practice," Harbaugh told USA Today's John Fennelly. "Seems like he picked things up we asked him to pick up really well. Was in here late, early. Studying, learning."
Winston has struggled mightily since Jaxson Dart went down, completing 25 of his 49 passes for 229 yards (4.7 yards per attempt), zero touchdowns, and an interception.
With a chance to go 3-1 with a win, the Giants might just turn to their shiny new quarterback if Winston's struggles continue.
Chris Olave Records His First-Ever PPR WR1 Finish
It doesn't sound quite right, but Chris Olave has never finished as the PPR WR1 in a week. The closest he came was in his final two games last season, when he was the WR2 both times, behind Puka Nacua and Luther Burden III, respectively.
Tyler Shough zips it in to Chris Olave for SIX 🎯
NOvsBAL on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/oDswfhPi71— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2026
Burden, Tre Tucker, Emeka Egbuka, and Rome Odunze all managed that feat last season, so it's a bit odd that a player of Olave's quality has never done so.
But now that he has a rising quarterback who is peppering him with targets (Olave leads the league in targets and receptions), he just needs one outstanding performance to earn his first WR1 finish.
He will face the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed the sixth-most passing yards (820) in the NFL. They have also allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game (38.5) to opposing wideouts.
This is a great chance for Olave to finally finish as the fantasy WR king, especially if his team's rival, Drake London, is watching along.
