RADIO
We have made it to Week 15. All of the NFL bye weeks are behind us, and every team has just a handful of games remaining until we're all staring at our calendars again for six months waiting for them to return. We've officially climbed back into the green after a brutal stretch in November took us down into the red, but it's time to finish the season strong and end the year with some money in our pockets.
Well, we were Kadarius Toney lining up onside for a 4-1 week. Josh Allen was on pace to clear his rushing prop in the first half before some questionable playcalling derailed us in the second half. We got three easy wins on the board from Drake London, Jake Ferguson and David Montgomery, but it wasn’t meant to be for Jordan Love on Monday night. Allen had cleared his line, but a pair of kneel downs on their final possession set us back.
We’re continuing to add to our profits every week, but every narrow loss still stings to see. Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those who are new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all. As always, you can find a link to the season-long tracker for this column in the bio of my X.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 15
T.J. Hockenson O50.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: ESPNBet
Odds: -115
Our first prop of the week is for today’s slate of Saturday games with Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson getting the nod on this one. Hockenson has been one of the most consistent players at the position all season long. He’s gone for 50 or more yards in all but two contests this year, and he’s cleared this line in six of his last seven games, including last week’s high-scoring 3-0 outing against the Las Vegas Raiders.
This week, he gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank dead last in receiving yards allowed to tight ends this season. Following departures in the secondary this offseason, including both of their safeties, they’ve struggled to contain opposing tight ends. Even with Justin Jefferson in the lineup, he would be limited, and I think that gives Hockenson even more room to shine.
Tucker Kraft O34.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
This week’s second prop is another tight end, and we’re even staying in the same division with Green Bay Packers rookie Tucker Kraft getting the nod in this one. With teammate Luke Musgrave (kidney) out with an injury, Kraft has been able to shine in his place. He’s caught seven of his 10 targets for 101 yards over his last two games and cleared his line for this week in both outings.
Similar to Hockenson, Kraft has a great matchup for this week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends this year, and they’ve struggled to stop teams through the air at any position. With both Green Bay running backs dealing with injury, we could see the Packers go to the air more than expected, and that would lead to more opportunities for Kraft in this one.
Matthew Stafford O265.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: BetRivers
Odds: -113
Our third prop of the week goes toward a guy who has quietly been playing some great ball since returning from injury. Over his last three games, Stafford has thrown for 10 touchdowns and just one interception while clearing this line in two of those three games. Now, he gets a Washington Commanders team that is reeling and has been struggling to stop teams through the air all season long.
The Commanders have given up the fourth-most passing yards to quarterbacks this season, and one of the teams ahead of them is the Los Angeles Chargers, who have played one additional game. The Commanders are giving up an average of 277.9 passing yards per game, and this seems like the type of matchup where Stafford just slices and dices these guys up all game long.
DK Metcalf O64.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
We’re going a little heavy on the receiving yards this week, but this was a matchup that I just couldn’t ignore. The Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary has been getting carved up recently, and they draw DK Metcalf this week. Excluding matchups against the San Francisco 49ers, Metcalf has hit this mark in three straight games, including a huge 134-yard performance against the Dallas Cowboys two weeks back. Metcalf has been rolling.
For the Eagles, they’ve brutally lost back-to-back games with the 49ers and Cowboys moving the ball at will against them through the air. Metcalf remains a big-play threat waiting to happen whenever he’s on the field, and I think he should have no problems making plays against a pass defense that has given up the second-most receiving yards to wideouts this season.
Tony Pollard O53.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: FanDuel
Odds: -114
The final play of the week has us going to the ground game where I think the Dallas Cowboys would use running back Tony Pollard to slow down the aggressive Buffalo Bills defense. Pollard has cleared this number in five straight games, including last week against the elite Eagles rushing defense. On the year, he’s hit this number in eight out of 13 contests.
The Bills haven’t allowed a ton of rushing yards this season, but I think that’s more due to how explosive their offense has been compared to how stout their defense has been. Pollard’s ability to rip off chunk gains is the perfect way for Dallas to extend drives and keep the Bills’ offense on the sidelines. If Josh Allen isn’t on the field, then it gets a whole lot more difficult for him to score points.
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