RADIO
We are just past the halfway point of the last great college football season. The first half was a wild one and it only promises to get better! A couple of teams have already been eliminated from playoff contention and that's the way it should be! I have no interest in a two-loss LSU in a watered-down playoff, which means I will have little to no interest in next season. That makes me profoundly sad.
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I had a bad week last week, but my head is still above water on the season. I am adding prior seasons to tabs on the sheet. Everything before 2014 is lost to the ghost of The Sports Blog Network. If anyone knows how to find those, I'll go farther back.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 8 (October 21, 2023)
(7) Penn State at (3) Ohio State (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know that Penn State doesn't win big games under James Franklin. He also might have his most complete team at Penn State. It's definitely the most complete defense, and even though Drew Allar is green, he is by far Franklin's best quarterback. My issue is that Penn State is not a good running team anyway. Ohio State is going to completely shut down that facet of their offense.
Really...who am I to argue with a model? My thing is...does that take into account playing in one of the most hostile environments in college football? Penn State also played UMass and Iowa, two of the worst offenses above middle school in the entire country. They also piled up the stats against Delaware, Illinois, Northwestern, and West Virginia, who were totally lost in Week 1. Stats look really neat on paper until you start digging.
Everything about this screams Ohio State. Ohio State piled up their stats against Notre Dame, Western Kentucky, and Maryland. All of those offenses are solid. Ohio State is also not a strong running team, so if it comes down to Kyle McCord and Drew Allar, I'll take Allar. Marvin Harrison Jr. gets the nod at receiver, but Penn State's are better as a whole. I don't know if Penn State wins, but this spread feels high. Give me Penn State.
Central Florida at (6) Oklahoma (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
UCF has not looked good at all and the Oklahoma defense has excelled at creating turnovers. Dillon Gabriel is going to go nuts against his former team. BOOMER!
(22) Air Force (-10.5) at Navy
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Air Force is by far the best service academy this year. Step one of proving it is here. Give me Air Force.
Mississippi State at Arkansas (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bulldogs might be without both Will Rogers and Jo'Quavious Marks. We likely won't receive any pertinent info before kickoff. My best guess after watching the last game for the Bulldogs is that Marks plays but Rogers doesn't. Again, no insider information or anything, this is just based on the last game. I'll take the Piggies at home, especially if Marks is out.
Rutgers (-5.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
So this is where we are? Rutgers did everything in their power to lose to Michigan State and nearly succeeded. Indiana has a myriad of problems, but they are at home. That should still count for something. Give me the Hoosiers, but I'm not touching this one.
Boston College at Georgia Tech (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. The Eagles are much worse on the road. Give me the Bees.
Baylor at Cincinnati (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Really? I know that Baylor's defense is a problem, but Cincinnati hasn't been able to move the ball on anyone. Nippert Stadium hasn't stopped their new conference foes from beating on the Bearcats. Baylor is the better team. Give me the Bears outright.
Memphis (-6.5) at UAB
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like UAB, but the inconsistency of Jacob Zeno and the defense as a whole is pushing me away from them. I'm changing it up and taking Memphis.
Western Michigan at Ohio (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats didn't even cover this against a sad Ball State team. Give me the Broncos.
Charlotte at East Carolina (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Home field is supposed to be worth seven points, so I'll take the Pirates.
Louisiana-Monroe at Georgia Southern (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Warhawks have been all over the place this year. I hate this line, but the Eagles are the far better team. I'm hoping they show it.
Akron at Bowling Green (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Every once in a while, the Falcons flash what kind of team they can be. They did that last week against Buffalo. I'm a firm believer in going with the better team. That has to be the Falcons. Give me Bowling Green at home.
Washington State at (9) Oregon (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is the kind of thing that makes Washington State extremely hard to bet. However, this game is in Autzen. Oregon is going to blow them out.
(17) Tennessee at (11) Alabama (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
For those of you who are still confused as to why I'm opposed to the conference realignment craze, this is a big reason. I'm still bitter about the Big 12 taking away Oklahoma/Nebraska every year and that happened 27 years ago.
So much for getting a bargain on this. Vegas knows what I know. Tennessee's defense may be better, but the offense is inconsistent to a frightening level. Alabama's strength is still their secondary. I'm taking the Tide at home.
South Carolina at (20) Missouri (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Luther Burden is going to light that secondary up like Rockefeller Center on Christmas. Missouri by at least two scores!
North Texas at (23) Tulane (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is Tulane this much better than everyone else in the conference? Probably, but they don't always play like that. Give me Tulane, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
Minnesota at (24) Iowa (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Way too low. Floyd of Rosedale doesn't even know what Minneapolis looks like anymore. He's been in Iowa City since 2015. He stays there. Expect an ugly Iowa win. Somewhere along the lines of 13-3 with Leshon Williams scoring the lone touchdown. Iowa is nothing if not predictable.
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Tanner Mordecai is out with a broken hand, but unless Illinois' run defense is significantly improved over the last two weeks or so, Braelon Allen is going to have a monster game. Give me Wisconsin.
Northwestern at Nebraska (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, this feels high. Nebraska's defense has been good, but the offense isn't geared to cover a spread like this. Northwestern is a lot better than they were last year when they beat the Huskers in Dublin. I'm not saying Northwestern wins this outright, but I think they hang around. I'll say 23-13 or 23-17 Nebraska. Somewhere in that range. Give me the Wildcats.
South Florida (-1.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USF has not only burned me in the past month, but they have stolen my car and driven it through my house. It's carnage betting on this team. That said, Byrum Brown is still the best player on the field. Give me USF.
Pittsburgh at Wake Forest (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wake couldn't beat Louisville on their best day. Pitt is light years ahead of where they were a couple of weeks ago with Phil Jurkovec. Christian Veilleux still has work to do, but he isn't making crippling mistakes. Give me Pitt.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Has Vegas watched the Pokes in the last two weeks or so? This line really has me questioning if they have. West Virginia is a good team, but Ollie Gordon is a special player. Give me OSU.
Central Michigan (-4.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cardinals are winless against FBS teams, so this checks out. Give me CMU.
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
One good game and this happens? Call me a tougher sell than most bettors. Give me the Eagles, but I'm not touching this.
Buffalo (-6.5) at Kent State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
No juice on a Kent State +6.5 bet on FanDuel feels nuts. Go look at the juice (or lack thereof) on the Kent side. Whenever I'm given an incentive to bet the dog by Vegas, I get nervous. Eastern Michigan covered this line. I have to think Buffalo does too. Give me the Bulls.
(8) Texas (-22.5) at Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, this feels high. I see some on Houston as a trendy upset pick. That's not happening. However, I don't really see Texas winning by this much either. 17? Sure. Maybe even 20. I expect more of a 45-24 game. That's getting close to Texas not covering, so I'm not going nuts on this. Give me Houston and the points.
Toledo (-2.5) at Miami (OH)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Really? My birthday was last month, fellas. Toledo's offense has been a wreck for the better part of a month already. A defense like the Redhawks is going to eat them alive. Miami outright, maybe by double figures.
UTSA (-2.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
FAU didn't get the memo that they are supposed to be worse with a backup quarterback. That speaks volumes about Daniel Richardson. Frank Harris was Daniel Richardson before Daniel Richardson was cool. Give me the O.G. (UTSA).
Hawaii (-1.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Hawaii is the better team, but that doesn't always mean a lot. Give me Hawaii, but I'm not touching this. Both teams are really inconsistent.
Virginia at (10) North Carolina (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Virginia still has Tony Muskett at quarterback. It feels like they're trying to lose. Give me the Heels.
(13) Mississippi (-6.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
What people are missing is the fact that Georgia's offense isn't built to be explosive. LSU's is and look what they did to Auburn. Ole Miss is much the same way. Ole Miss by a couple of touchdowns or more!
Texas Tech (-3.5) at BYU
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Two of the most disappointing teams in a disappointing conference are squaring off in Provo and no one cares. I do because I'm betting Tech! Home field may be worth seven points, but having Kedon Slovis as your starting quarterback has to take those right back. If the Red Raiders do what they should have done last week and run Tahj Brooks until he passes out, they'll roll.
TCU at Kansas State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was THE game in the Big 12(10 14) not once, but twice last year. Now Will Howard is mortal (and likely benched) and the fans are just a bunch of grown adults wearing purple. Josh Hoover makes TCU better, but Avery Johnson makes Kansas State a lot better. Give me K-State.
Appalachian State (-6.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Monarchs have busted spreads all season and App State is struggling right now. This still feels low to me though. Give me the Mountaineers for under a touchdown.
Coastal Carolina (-10.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That hook makes me nervous, but if Grayson McCall is going to play like he did in 2020, it won't matter. Give me CCU.
Colorado State at UNLV (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That hook seals it for me. Colorado State is doing things behind Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and Tory Horton. I'm game. Give me the Rams outright!
Utah State at San Jose State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Every time I try to believe in the Aggies, they go out and play a game that makes me wonder if anyone on the team has ever seen a football before. Give me SJSU.
(2) Michigan (-24.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wolverines have decided that maybe style points do count over the last couple of weeks. Give me Michigan.
(16) Duke at (4) Florida State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Duke has never beaten Florida State. With a healthy Riley Leonard, I think they would have a chance. However, even if Riley Leonard does play in this game, he most certainly won't be at 100%. Still, the Duke defense has been really solid. I'll take Duke because of that hook, but I still think they lose.
Army at (19) LSU (-31.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, talk about a contrast in styles! I see this a lot like the Auburn game last week. The way to get to that LSU defense is deep. Auburn had no chance at doing it and Army doesn't either. Give me LSU.
(14) Utah at (18) USC (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'd hate to break it to you, but Utah beat the Trojans once without Cameron Rising last year. They destroyed the Trojans with him in there. This is a game where the loss of Brant Kuithe hurts worse. This is the exact same Utah front seven that dominated the Trojans in both games last year. Maybe Utah loses, but it won't be by a touchdown. Give me Utah.
I can guarantee you this won't help. On the surface, it looked like Lincoln Riley slunk out of Norman in the middle of the night after a loss. The reality was that the team quit on him before that. I'm guessing that the team either knew Riley was leaving or they had a strong feeling that he was. USC is not like Oklahoma. They more than anyone know what kind of business this is because they make as much as most of their coaches. USC may not quit the way that the Oklahoma team did, but the last thing you need is another distraction facing the Utah front.
Clemson (-3.5) at Miami (FL)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Well..this is interesting. On the road even! I trust Tyler Van Dyke a hell of a lot more than Cade Klubnik. I still like Miami outright.
Georgia State at Louisiana (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The bettors still don't believe in Darren Grainger and Marcus Carroll. Don't make the same mistake. The Panthers are the better team by a rather large margin. I like GSU outright.
Nevada at San Diego State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Eh...I don't know. The Aztecs aren't built to cover spreads like this. Give me Nevada and the points.
Arizona State at (5) Washington (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Letdown game or not, I can tell you right now this is too many points. Since being blanked by Fresno, The Fun Devils are 3-0 against the spread (2-1 in some spots). That trend continues. Washington wins but doesn't cover.
(25) UCLA (-16.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UCLA is not Colorado. Give me the Bruins.
I have 19 each of the two and three-point bets this week, but I only have three minimum bets. I'm not taking the easy way out. I have eight four-pointers and five max bets to try and bring home some cash. Good luck out there!
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