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Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Monday, 11/9/26. Capitalize on commission-free odds and market edges with today's top Novig picks.
I hope you don't have a case of the Mondays, because going back to the work week this time of year after indulging in a sports-filled weekend can certainly be tough. But we have Monday Night Football and a nice slate of NBA games to look forward to tonight, the latter being my focus here in today's edition of NBA prop picks.
If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.
As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Monday's NBA slate!
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.
The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost built into the odds offered on each side of a bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!
NBA Prop Bet Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:00 AM ET. All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Cooper Flagg OVER 14.5 Rebounds + Assists (50%)
We are watching the birth of a superstar in Dallas. Flagg's sophomore season has been every bit as good as advertised, as he's averaging 24-7-7 through his first nine games and has helped lead the Mavericks to a 6-4 start.
COOPER FLAGG WITH AUTHORITY 💥
He became the first teenager to record 25+ PTS, 10+ AST, and 5+ REB in under 30 minutes, leading the Mavs to the home win last night!
https://t.co/veojaIgtfw
— NBA (@NBA) November 9, 2026
Flagg was fantastic last night in the Mavericks' romp of the Nets, going 25-5-12 in only 28 minutes. He didn't have to expend any energy in the fourth quarter and should be relatively fresh for this matchup against the Pacers tonight.
The last time Flagg faced the Pacers, he got hurt and was unable to finish the game. He had five boards and six assists in that one...in only 17 minutes. It's never this easy, but if you wanna double that and project him for 34 minutes tonight, then he's a triple-double candidate and he could easily smash this prop.
We could see Kyrie Irving rested, too, which would push Flagg even more into a point-forward role. But even if Kyrie plays, I love Flagg's upside in what projects to be a closer game than we saw Dallas in last night.
Stephon Castle OVER 20.5 Points + Rebounds (53%)
I haven't bet on many Spurs props this year for one reason: they have been blowing the doors off teams, and their starters haven't had to play big minutes all that often. Castle is averaging only 29 minutes per game this year, and San Antonio has spread out the statistical production among all three of their excellent young guards, while Victor Wembanyama does a lot of the heavy lifting, too.
Castle and Dylan Harper are both very good rebounders at their positions, and because the Spurs play very small with basically four guards (Devin Vassell is a 6-foot-five shooting guard starting at the four), whichever boards that Wemby doesn't snag are up for grabs. Castle has at least five boards in 8 of their 10 games, and he's gone for 21 points and rebounds now in 7 of 10.
The spread is 8.5 here, so perhaps the Suns, who have been playing a bit better, can actually make a game of this. Because if we get 30 minutes or more from Castle, he'll crush this number.
Stephen Curry OVER 28.5 Points (51%)
It's been a lot of fun to see Steph back doing Steph things this year. He's absolutely on fire now, averaging 35.8 points per game over his last five and going over this number in all five.
STEPH DROPS 41, WARRIORS WIN 7TH IN A ROW!
HE TIES OSCAR ROBERTSON FOR THE 8TH-MOST 40-POINT GAMES IN NBA HISTORY 🤯 https://t.co/PjiI7QFI3i
— NBA (@NBA) November 8, 2026
The only concern here is that the Pelicans are on a back-to-back and are 9.5-point underdogs. They'll need to put up enough of a fight to get some fourth-quarter minutes for Steph. But to be fair, he had 29 in only 28 minutes against the Heat the other night. He's locked in (as the kids say) and has drilled at least five threes in all five of those games, too (his three-point prop looks juicy, too).
Oh, and did I mention that the Pelicans are allowing the most points to opposing point guards in the league?
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NBA Value Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:00 AM ET. All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
CJ McCollum OVER 12.5 Points (51%)
McCollum has moved to the bench for the last two games, and that's where I expect him to remain going forward. So why do we like his points prop, if he just got demoted?
Well, his prop number goes down, but his usage has actually gone up. He's been at 23% and 30% usage in his two games coming off the bench; he's just shot it terribly (1-for-10 and then 4-for-14).
He won't shoot that badly forever, and he only needs to hit five or six shots to cash this prop. Even if we project his minutes to stay in the 21-22 range, he's putting up enough shots to get there tonight, especially in what should be a high-paced, high-scoring game against the Lakers (who are on the second half of a back-to-back).
Walker Kessler OVER 24.5 Points + Rebounds (50%)
Kessler is averaging 28 points and boards over his last five games. This game is the tightest spread of the night (1.5 points) and has the highest total (236.5 points) on the slate, so I expect to see Kessler in his normal allotment of minutes, even on a back-to-back.
Atlanta is allowing the third-most points per possession on putbacks and the fourth-most to roll men on the pick-and-roll. That's pretty much how Kessler derives most of his scoring, so this matchup plays right into his strengths.
Cedric Coward OVER 6.5 Rebounds (51%)
Some bettors simply won't bet on a number that hasn't missed yet, with the logic that the law of averages suggests that regression is bound to come and the next game could be the one where the bubble bursts.
But I'm still hammering Coward's rebounding prop today; I don't care that he hasn't gone under 7 rebounds yet this season!
I always want to look at the context surrounding the player's performance. Coward's rebounding this season (8.8 per game in 28.5 minutes per game) might look fluky to some, but I think it's a product of a few things. First of all, Zach Edey is still only playing around 20 minutes a night, and so anytime that Coward is on the floor when Edey isn't, he's instantly one of the top two rebounders on the team, along with rookie Cameron Boozer.
Toronto isn't a great matchup for offensive stats, but I this should be a really good game that stays close, and you could argue that Toronto's very good defense is going to create more offensive rebounding opportunities, too. Coward's length from the wing gives him an advantage over smaller guards, and he's not afraid to mix it up with the big men in the paint either.
Obi Toppin OVER 15.5 Points + Rebounds (52%)
You want another prop that hasn't missed yet this season? Yep, Obi is a perfect 7-for-7 on this number and should be line for 20+ minutes again tonight for the Pacers as Ivica Zubac is still on a minutes restriction.
The Mavs give up a lot of boards and points to big men, which I think we can classify Toppin as a small-ball center. He's also firing away from deep, averaging five three-point attempts per game. This game is definitely one of my favorites for props tonight; I think it stays close and produces a lot of stats!
Good luck if you're tailing, and thanks for reading!
