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Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 22 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
Welcome to Week 22! With just a couple weeks until the fantasy baseball playoffs start, finding those hidden gems to help you in September becomes paramount. Often times, a late season find can be the reason you snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
So let's help you find some gems in this week's edition of Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs for Week 22 of the fantasy baseball season. We'll use the advanced stats to help us decode whether or not these gems are diamonds in the rough or fool's gold.
Today, we've got four hitters to evaluate -- Nick Sogard, Michael Massey, Rafael Flores Jr., and Spencer Jones. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Sunday, August 23rd.
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Nick Sogard, 1B/2B/3B, Boston Red Sox
2026 Stats: .828 OPS, 136 OPS+, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 20 R, 0 SB, 20% Rostered (Yahoo!)
It didn't seem like a positive thing when Curtis Mead landed on the IL after fracturing his left wrist. You don't just lose a newly acquired trade piece and feel great about it. But it allowed for the opportunity for Sogard to get called up from Triple-A Worcester, and the 28-year-old has taken advantage.
AND NICK SOGARD JUMPS ON THE NEXT PITCH! 😮
2-0 #RedSox 🤩 https://t.co/2N7FmCF3RW pic.twitter.com/SBDJFpuQq9
— NESN (@NESN) August 17, 2026
Shuffled around the infield before getting settled in at second base, Sogard has had a very solid August. He's smashing for an .878 OPS this month and is one of Boston's most productive hitters. But we have to ask as we always do: Is the switch-hitter a breakout or a fake out? Let's dig in.
Starting with his plate approach, we're seeing quite the improvement from his short stints in past seasons. He's dropped his strikeout rate to 16.7% while posting a walk rate of 16.0%. If you read these articles often, you know I love a high walk rate, and that's an incredibly solid number.
It helps to get him on base more when the bat isn't quite producing. And when he gets on base, he generally scores. His 15 runs scored in August is tied for second on the team, helping to drive that fantasy value upwards.
The walk rate isn't a mistake either. He posted a 19.3% walk rate in Worcester, so there's validity to his eye being much improved.
With his batted ball profile, we're seeing more improvements. He's keeping the ball off the ground more, seeing his ground-ball rate decrease to 38.7% from last year's 44.4%. Much of that decrease has slid over to his line drive rate, which has jumped to 29.0% from last year's already impressive 25.0% rate. That's leading to a lot more hits for Sogard.
His HR/FB rate sits at just 6.7% so far, but power's not quite his forte. He posted a 10.6% HR/FB rate in Worcester, so things can improve, but you're not looking for him to be blasting homers on your roster.
Looking at his BABIP, he's clocking in with a .344 number on the season. That's actually fairly similar to his two other MLB stints, so he may not be a stranger to a higher BABIP. He did post a .310 BABIP in Triple-A this year, though, so the safer route would be to assume that it's going to come down some in September.
Moving on to his Baseball Savant page, we can see that his xwOBA is predicting some negative regression. With a high BABIP, that's not surprising. His .369 wOBA is paired with a .340 xwOBA, which is still a respectable number.
Where I start to have a bit more concern, though, is the contact stats. His hard-hit rate of 27.7% would rank in just the sixth percentile, while his barrel rate of 5.0% would rank close to the 25th percentile. This is essentially Boston's version of Isaac Paredes this season.
If we look at the pitch mix, we can easily see where the negative regression is going to come from. So far he's been crushing four-seamers (.436 wOBA) and changeups (.558 wOBA), but both have negative regression expected. Four-seamers have a .345 xwOBA while changeups have a .386 xwOBA.
Those are still really solid floors, though! It's just going to bring him to a more realistic level.
What I'd expect pitchers to start throwing Sogard more is sliders. So far he's hit them with just a .168 wOBA to go along with a .182 xwOBA. If they move away from changeups, then sliders would be an option that pitchers would benefit from.
Verdict: The main concern that I have with Sogard is simply his contact stats. He's not hitting it hard enough to make me feel comfortable enough that he'll keep up the same level of production that he has been putting up in August.
But the good news is he's hitting a ton of line drives, and he's generating walks at a very high level. That's going to make him a buy, but expectations need to be kept in check here. Expect an OPS+ closer to the 105-110 range going forward, which still makes him serviceable on your roster.
Michael Massey, 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals
2026 Stats: .751 OPS, 111 OPS+, 11 HR, 43 RBI, 46 R, 2 SB, 6% Rostered (Yahoo!)
It's been a disappointing season in Kansas City, but that doesn't mean there aren't silver linings on their roster. Massey's been a bit more overlooked than some of his teammates this year, such as Jac Caglianone, but he's been holding his own.
His 111 OPS+ would be a career high, just barely outpacing his 2024 numbers. Over the last 14 days, he's been smoking hot with a 1.005 OPS. At just 6% rostered, he could be a diamond in the rough that your roster needs. But that's why we're here. Is he a breakout, or a fake out?
Michael Massey sends one to the seats! pic.twitter.com/soyrqbA20j
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) August 15, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, he's still looking like a hitter that prioritizes putting the ball in play. His strikeout rate is up to 17.1% from 15.5% last season, but that's still a solid number. His walk rate is up to 5.0% from 3.2% last year. While it's the second-highest rate of his career, I'd love to see it higher.
Moving on to his batted ball profile, we're seeing numbers that are very similar to his 2024 season. He's currently posting a 37.0% ground-ball rate, 42.4% fly-ball rate, and a 20.7% line drive rate. While the ground-ball rate is well up from his numbers last year, there's clearly a bit more success for him with this type of profile.
Looking at his BABIP, he's coming in with a .304 rate this season. That's tied for the highest mark of his career. He's generally been closer to the .270 range. Is he recognizing some positive regression he's been owed?
That's what we'll find out on Baseball Savant. They're viewing it differently, though. His .324 wOBA is paired with a .297 xwOBA that ranks in the 19th percentile.
During his two-week hot streak, he's posted a .434 wOBA that's paired with a .319 xwOBA. It's a small sample size, but it sure does feel like there's a lot of luck running rampant here.
With his contact stats, Massey is posting a 39.9% hard-hit rate to go along with a 6.0% barrel rate. The hard-hit rate ranks in the 44th percentile while the barrel rate ranks in the 31st percentile. Those are actually a bit better than I was expecting based on his xwOBA.
So maybe xwOBA isn't a fan of his low walk rate, or it doesn't buy into his 20.7% line drive rate translating into more hits. I do question whether or not the negative regression will hit as hard as it's saying it will based on everything else we've seen.
When we look at the pitch mix, there are three pitches that are expected to have negative regression that will make an impact: Sinkers, sliders, and cutters.
He's hitting sinkers for a .395 wOBA, sliders for a .467 wOBA, and cutters for a .450 wOBA. But those all have decent floors with a .354 xwOBA for sinkers, .372 xwOBA for sliders, and a .398 xwOBA for cutters.
Those three only make up about 30% of the total pitches he sees, though. I would anticipate that, instead of these three pitches, pitchers are going to focus on four-seamers and changeups.
Those numbers have been more true to form, with four-seamers being hit for a .279 wOBA and changeups being his for a .270 wOBA. Both have an xwOBA right around .270, so pitchers are likely to keep focusing on these in order to limit Massey's production going forward.
Verdict: While I think that the negative regression xwOBA is predicting from a full-season perspective may be a bit excessive, I do think he's getting lucky. This hot streak hasn't been fueled by incredibly hard hits, homers, or anything impressive, and he's probably benefitting from simply finding holes.
In my eyes, Massey is a bit of a fake out. He's a serviceable MLB hitter, but I view him closer to a 90 OPS+ type of hitter than the 111 he is today. If you're desperate for quick production at second base, you know I never hate on riding a hot streak. But don't plan on him being a factor in your lineup in September.
Rafael Flores Jr., C/1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
2026 Stats: .922 OPS, 146 OPS+, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 10 R, 0 SB, 17% Rostered (Yahoo!)
The Pirates haven't had the best second half by record, falling out of the wild card race after a solid start. But they've had some interesting fantasy options to focus on. Flores is the most recent, stepping into the catcher role after Endy Rodriguez got put on the IL with a hip injury.
All Flores has done since then is rake, smashing five homers in August for a .906 OPS. Is he a late-season gem? Or are we looking at fool's gold? Let's find out.
STAY HOT FLO
Rafael Flores Jr. extends the Pirates' lead to 2-0 with an RBI double. He's now 2-3 tonight with a .955 OPS this season
100.7 MPH exit velocity, .580 xBA pic.twitter.com/PVR4w6DhOL
— Platinum Key (@PlatinumKey13) August 25, 2026
Based on his plate approach, you can tell he's very much a three true outcomes type of hitter. He's clocking in with a 32.4% strikeout rate and an 11.8% walk rate. That reflects the type of hitter he was in Triple-A Indianapolis, where he had a 25.0% strikeout rate and a 16.7% walk rate this season.
With his batted ball profile, he's very clearly making an effort to hit fly balls. That's reflected by his 50.0% fly-ball rate, though that's paired with a 42.1% ground-ball rate and just a 7.9% line drive rate. This is quite the difference from his numbers in Indianapolis, where he posted a 22.6% line drive rate and a 29.6% fly-ball rate.
I'm going to chalk up most of his current batted ball profile to the small sample size. Mix in so many walks and strikeouts, and it definitely helps to skew the data.
His BABIP currently sits at .281 during his 22-game stint. That's a bit below the .310 mark he posted in Triple-A, but we have to factor in the fact he's been hitting quite a few homers in the majors. Balls leaving the park as often as they have for Flores are going to lower that number.
As we head on to Baseball Savant to check the advanced stats, we can see that his .392 wOBA is paired with a .350 xwOBA. This is a bit higher than the .321 xwOBA he posted in Triple-A. There's a chance we're looking at him overachieving a bit, even if the expected stats still read solid.
We can't discount the fact he's making really good contact right now, though. He's posting a 47.4% hard-hit rate to go along with an 18.4% barrel rate. Both of those are upper-echelon numbers.
But they're still higher than what he posted in Indianapolis. In Indy, he had a 39.0% hard-hit rate and a 6.9% barrel rate. It's very possible that right now the league is simply learning the book on him.
There's not a ton that we can take from the pitch mix he faces quite yet, but I do find it interesting that he's had his struggles against four-seamers. He's hit them for just a .240 wOBA, paired with a .257 xwOBA. I'd expect pitchers to lean on their four-seamers more instead of sinkers and sliders.
Verdict: I recommended Flores as a pick-up over the weekend, and I still believe in his talent, but I do think that we may need to temper expectations for the 25-year-old. He's been great so far, and Pittsburgh needs him to continue at this level, but at some point it will level off.
At 17% rostered, he's a buy. But again, let's temper expectations because this type of production won't keep up. He'll keep getting on base with his high walk rate, but we'll eventually see his homers decrease as he moves more towards his minor league batted ball profile. Don't make drastic moves to get him on your roster, but he's worth a spot if it's not much pain to get him added.
Spencer Jones, OF, New York Yankees
2026 Stats: .742 OPS, 106 OPS+, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 20 R, 8 SB, 22% Rostered (Yahoo!)
There's been a lot of hope and hype behind Jones in his time in New York's system. The Yankees' plethora of injuries led to him making his debut this year. He's had sporadic playing time through June and July, but he's starting to get more consistent playing time in August.
As of late, he's starting to really heat up, hitting for an .892 OPS over the last 14 days. He's got two homers this past week and is crushing the ball even more. It sure looks like he's started to figure things out. So is he a breakout? Or a fake out? Let's dig in.
SPENCER JONES HOMERS AFTER REVIEW pic.twitter.com/O6LblcGxc9
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) August 21, 2026
Starting with his plate approach, he's looking like yet another three true outcomes type of hitter. That's evident based on his 36.0% strikeout rate and his 10.1% walk rate. This is essentially who he's been in New York's minor league system, so there's nothing that surprising here.
During his two-week hot streak, he's actually struck out more, posting a 37.8% strikeout rate. It's a high, ugly number, but it's just who he is regardless of the results he's getting otherwise.
Moving on to the batted ball profile, he makes up for the high strikeout rate some by making a concerted effort to get the ball into the air. So far he's posting a 31.6% ground-ball rate, 44.2% fly-ball rate, and a 24.2% line drive rate. That goes along with a 16.7% HR/FB rate so far.
There may be more in the tank in terms of power. He posted a 28.0% HR/FB rate in Triple-A Scranton this season and a 34.3% HR/FB rate through multiple levels of New York's system last year. We may not see him quite reach that level by season's end, but there's more potential here.
As we move on to BABIP, he's coming in with a .341 mark this season. That may seem high, but it's also just part of who he is. He posted a .371 mark in New York's system last year. So sure, a .341 mark may point to negative regression coming. But I wouldn't expect it to drop close to .300 any time soon.
Now let's check his Baseball Savant page. His .324 wOBA is paired with a .328 xwOBA, so his numbers have been relatively true. Over the last two weeks, he's gotten up to a .385 wOBA to go with a .351 xwOBA. Overachieving? Sure, but still solid expected numbers.
Where Jones really excels is his contact stats. He's got a 58.5% hard-hit rate to go along with a 15.8% barrel rate. He hits the ball as hard as Munetaka Murakami and barrels it as often as Matt Olson. Not a bad combo!
When looking at the pitch mix he faces, it's clear he absolutely dominates one pitch: Sinkers. He's hitting them for a .529 wOBA to go along with a .530 xwOBA. Usually when you see a number this high, it's tied to some sort of negative regression. So to see the numbers are relatively true, even at a somewhat small sample size, it's a good sign.
Verdict: It's always tough to deal with a player who strikes out at such a high clip. But Jones is making such good contact that it's really hard to ignore. And with more potentially in the tank in terms of homers, it makes him someone you can't really pass up.
Jones is most certainly a buy. At 22% rostered, you'll deal with the strikeouts and take the power, especially when he's facing a pitcher that is reliant on their sinker. Snag him when you can and let the solid contact pay off for you.
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