January 6, 2017

Renee Miller's DraftKings daily fantasy football lineup picks for the NFL playoffs Wild Card Round. Build your DraftKings lineups with her DFS sleepers & FLEX values.

It’s easy to let your DraftKings FLEX spot be left up to the amount of salary remaining after you fill out the rest of the squad. That’s the ‘flex-by-default’ strategy. The purpose of this Wild Card Round DraftKings DFS article is to help you avoid it. You can and should use the FLEX spot to strengthen and diversify your daily league lineups for Wild Card Weekend.

A couple of thoughts: 1) You don’t have to spend all the salary cap. A better player in a better situation may force you to leave a few hundred salary cap dollars on the table. Force yourself to roster the best lineup, even if it fails to use the whole cap. 2) As a scientist, I like to use players for which I can build a case based on multiple pieces of evidence. I look at things like opportunities, efficiency, opponent and game flow to start my research. I want as many players that are positive in all categories as I can fit. Having an idea of the players I want before I work with salaries helps me with #1 too.

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Wild Card DraftKings FLEX Options - Daily Fantasy Football Picks

Use this list as your flex cheat sheet; if a player is on here, there’s good reason to roster him in your last spot.

I assume that you have $6,500 or less to work with for this final spot on the roster. I also assume you’ll arrange accordingly so that the player with the latest game start is in the flex in case you should need to swap someone out.

Safe Options - Wild Card Round DraftKings Lineup Picks

Ty Montgomery $5,500: The safest options all price out much higher than $6.5K this week leaving me with a couple of guys that I feel good about, but not great. Montgomery has been successful as a receiver and as a running back for the Packers at different times this season. He’s coming off two so-so performances where he was minimally involved despite the Packers needing to win those games.

The Giants are the best on-paper pass defense (fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, second-fewest to quarterbacks) playing this weekend, which makes a versatile guy like Montgomery more intriguing than usual. The cold weather may also favor a heavier dose of the run game, with Aaron Ripkowski ($4,100) another interesting option at the flex spot.

Kenny Stills $3,700: With Matt Moore taking the QB duties over from Ryan Tannehill, Stills has quietly thrived. He’s caught a touchdown in four consecutive games on an average of just over six targets per game. His price belies his consistency, and while Pittsburgh is the huge favorite here and a good pass defense, Miami will likely need to be throwing to stay in the game. Stills is a guy that can pick up those big chunks of yardage or break free for a long TD.

Upside Options - Wild Card Round DraftKings Lineup Picks

Lamar Miller $6,100: Miller has missed two games in a row now and his team has to be desperately hoping he’s good to go on Sunday. With the quarterback situation up in the air (Tom Savage will likely not be ready with a concussion) and the Raiders giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, he’s in position to succeed and exceed value.

Anquan Boldin $4,000: While any pass catcher is a risk against Seattle, Boldin is tough enough to handle it. Matt Stafford knows Boldin will fight for every ball and usually win—even against his own teammate as we saw in Sunday night’s hail mary pass to the endzone. Given an additional week to heal his dislocated finger, Boldin could be the go-to guy in the slot, where the Seahawks struggle the most.

Value Options - Wild Card Round DraftKings Lineup Picks

Rashad Jennings $4,200 and Paul Perkins $4,100: Although Green Bay is a much better passing matchup than rushing, game conditions in Wisconsin this weekend could favor a double-dose of run plays. Perkins and Jennings split carries almost equally and the Giants ran 39 times against the Redskins. Jennings got the goal line carry and touchdown, while Perkins continued to impress with his five yards per carry pace. The way to use them is to interchange them around a more solid core in tournament lineups.

Eli Rogers $4,000: The only question with Rogers is will there be enough to go around? You have to love Ben Roethlisberger at home in the weekend’s highest scoring game (in which the Steelers are 10-point favorites), and Antonio Brown should shine here. Le’Veon Bell will also be heavily involved, so the Dolphins will have their hands full. Rogers has become the de facto WR2 here, and I think the answer is yes, there will be enough to go around for Rogers to meet value this week.