Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 6

April hot streaks are either fading or becoming more real, so this week we're looking at pitchers who've had more than one surprising start and a surprising first six weeks of the season. This week's trio capped off their hot starts with some of the best outings of their season, if not their career, this […]

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - xwOBA Analysis for Week 7

With many hitters finally passing the 100-plate appearance threshold for 2021, we can begin to dig into expected statistics to see who is underperforming or overachieving. A good place to start is xwOBA, or expected weighted on-base average. For those unfamiliar with the term, BaseballSavant describes it thusly: "xwOBA is formulated using exit velocity, launch […]

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - xSLG Analysis for Week 7

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. This week I will dive into a metric that utilizes exit velocity and launch angle (two metrics we have […]

Early Plate Discipline Standouts

In 2019, I introduced a new (yet simple) statistical metric which focuses on the core ingredients of plate discipline. The Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) looks at the following basic binary events: Was the ball thrown in the zone? Was the ball swung on? Did the batter make contact with the ball? Weighted Plate Discipline […]

Return to Form: Veteran Pitchers to Believe In

We're always told that you can't teach an old dog new tricks, but sometimes I think we're selling old dogs short. With increased age brings wisdom and the know-how to attack life's problems in new ways. Nowhere is that likely more the case than with MLB pitchers. Often young pitchers are prone to relying simply […]

Which Pitchers With New Pitch Usage Should We Care About? Part Six

Throughout all Spring Training, we hear about pitching adding new pitches, or making major changes to their pitch usage. We even get to see those new pitches in action and dream about their potential impact. However, when the regular season starts, those changes can be abandoned and pitchers go back to what they do/know best. So […]

Pitch Mix Exam Room: Daniel Lynch

Eric Samulski of RotoBaller does a deep dive on Daniel Lynch, analyzing the Kansas City Royals starting pitcher and his first major league start, explaining why fantasy baseball managers should be buying in. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays […]

Veteran Bounce Backs In Effect for Fantasy Baseball

The old, boring vets are often the most painful to draft. We've likely seen their ceiling or are so far past it that their current level of production is meager in comparison. This relative way of thinking typically leaves a poorly framed assessment on that subset of players, leaving value to be harvested among the […]

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 5

Welcome to the 2021 edition of "Are You For Real?" This is a weekly column where we dissect surprisingly good starts from under-rostered and unheralded hurlers to try and determine whether they can maintain their performance or if it was just a flash in the pan. With April behind us, the numbers are beginning to […]

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Hard-Hit Rate Analysis for Week 6

We're officially one month into the season so more statistics will begin to become "sticky." One of the chief contact quality metrics that can be predictive of power is hard-hit rate. As always, we'll skip the obvious names like Mike Trout and Aaron Judge in order to look at unexpected leaders, as well as players […]

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - SIERA Analysis for Week 6

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Now roughly a month into the season, we are starting to gather a decent sample of data for […]

Pitch Mix Exam Room: Shane McClanahan

Eric Samulski of RotoBaller does a deep dive on Shane McClanahan, analyzing the Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher and his first major league start, explaining why fantasy baseball managers should be buying in. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays […]

Franmil Reyes Is a League-Winner Hidden In Plain Sight

The San Diego Padres signed Franmil Reyes to their organization all the way back in November of 2011. It took the Padres almost eight years and a season-and-a-half of playing time to move on from him, as they opted to include him in the Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Taylor Trammell three-team trade that included the Indians and […]

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 4

Welcome to the 2021 edition of "Are You For Real?" This is a weekly column where we dissect surprisingly good starts from under-rostered and unheralded hurlers to try and determine whether they can maintain their performance, or if it was just a flash in the pan. As April comes to a close, the days of […]

Pitch Mix Exam Room: Dustin May

Eric Samulski does a deep dive analysis into Dustin May's early pitch mix changes, analyzing the Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher and explaining why fantasy baseball managers should be buying in his recent success. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, […]

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Contact Rate Analysis for Week 5

Last week, we examined whiff rate risers and fallers so it's time to investigate the opposite side of the coin with contact rate. Many metrics are yet to warrant deep examination for 2021 since teams are approximately 20 games into the season. Contact rate takes about 100 plate appearances to begin stabilizing. While it is […]

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Launch Angle Analysis for Week 5

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I will select an advanced stat, choose two top performers and two under-performers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. Last week I took a look at exit velocity, and this week I will look into a stat […]

Pitch Mix Exam Room: Kendall Graveman

Eric Samulski of RotoBaller does a deep dive on Kendall Graveman, analyzing the Seattle Mariners relief pitcher and his pitch mix, explaining why fantasy baseball managers should be buying in. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 AM ET, Saturdays from 8-10 AM […]

Pitch Mix Exam Room: Joe Musgrove

Eric Samulski of RotoBaller analyzes San Diego Padres' starting pitcher Joe Musgrove. Looking at his pitch mix changes, Eric explains why fantasy baseball managers should expect good results from Musgrove but perhaps not the hot start he's gotten off to so far. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - […]

Which Pitchers With New Pitch Usage Should We Care About? Part Five

Throughout all Spring Training, we hear about pitching adding new pitches, or making major changes to their pitch usage. We even get to see those new pitches in action and dream about their potential impact. However, when the regular season starts, those changes can be abandoned and pitchers go back to what they do/know best. So […]

Walk-Rate Changes to Buy or Sell

About a tenth of the way through the season, it's hard to differentiate between the players who have gotten better or worse from the ones who are simply on a hot or cold streak. As a fantasy owner or a fan, what should the proper reaction be to an April tear? Luckily, some excellent research […]

Which Pitchers With New Pitches Should We Care About? Part Four

Throughout all Spring Training, we hear about pitching adding new pitches, or making major changes to their pitch usage. We even get to see those new pitches in action and dream about their potential impact. However, when the regular season starts, those changes can be abandoned and pitchers go back to what they do/know best. So […]

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 3

Welcome to the 2021 edition of "Are You For Real?" This is a weekly column where we dissect surprisingly good starts from under-rostered and unheralded hurlers to try and determine whether they can maintain their performance, or if it was just a flash in the pan. Week 3 was another good one in the baseball […]

Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds - Whiff Rate for Week 4

We're back in the swing of things, literally, with a closer look at hitters who are making quality contact and those who aren't. This week, our Statcast focus is Whiff Rate entering Week 4 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Whiffs are simply calculated as the number of swings and misses divided by the total […]

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Exit Velocity for Week 4

Welcome to the first edition of Statcast pitchers analysis this season! I covered this series two seasons ago and am very excited to be back at the helm. Statcast provides a ton of interesting and insightful advanced metrics that we can use to predict future fantasy performance. Each week I will select one of these […]

Pitch Mix Exam Room - Casey Mize

Eric Samulski of RotoBaller does a deep dive on Casey Mize. He analyzes the Detroit Tigers starting pitcher and his pitch mix, explaining why fantasy baseball managers should be a bit wary of his fast start. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210, XM 87) - every weekday morning between 6-7 […]

Statcast Hitter Leaderboard: Maximum Exit Velocity

Although we technically got Statcast data as soon as the first pitch of the 2021 season was thrown, any good sabermetrician knows that sample size matters. It's still quite early in the season but we can't wait to start digging into the stats, so let's start this year's iteration of the Statcast Hitter Leaderboard by […]

Fantasy Baseball Closers to Target

Diving head-first into relievers who have converted saves early in the season is typically fine but whatever is going on this season is very, very odd. If my math is correct, there are now 35 different relievers who have at least 1 save so far this year. After one week of games. Crazy. — Greg […]

Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 2

Welcome to the 2021 edition of "Are You For Real?" This is a weekly column where we dissect surprisingly good starts from under-rostered and unheralded hurlers to try and determine whether they can maintain their performance, or if it was just a flash in the pan. Week 2 brought even more surprising starts, and with […]